The final 2022 Rookie Power Rankings are here

October 5th, 2022

Welcome to the final edition of the 2022 Rookie Power Rankings. Once per month over the course of the season, the prospect experts at MLB Pipeline have voted on who we believe to be the likeliest Rookie of the Year winners at year’s end.

Well, now we’re at year’s end and there’s no more projection. Whereas in previous editions, we’ve melded performance to date with our expectations for players for the remainder of the year, now you are what your record says you are.

Without further ado, here are the rankings.

1. , OF, Mariners (previous rank: 1)
Who else? Rodríguez took the lead in this race a while back and never relinquished it, playing a pivotal role for Seattle’s first playoff team since he was 9 months old. He led qualified rookies in OPS, posted the only 25-25 season among rookies, played solid defense and was a star all year long for the M’s. He’s not just going to win rookie honors in the AL; he’ll get some MVP votes, too.

2. , C, Orioles (previous rank: 4)
Despite spotting Rodríguez a month at the start of the year due to injury, Rutschman actually led all rookies in WAR (at least according to FanGraphs). And it’s safe to say if he’d been healthy all year, this would be a different conversation. Rutschman enjoyed a brilliant year both offensively and defensively, and it’s only his less gaudy counting stats that relegate him to second place in a great field of rookies.

3. Michael Harris II, OF, Braves (previous rank: 2)
It’s not so much that Harris fell as that Rutschman surged. It’s also much harder to identify either of the two Braves rookie stars as most likely to win the award, since their cases are so evenly matched. We went with Harris by a hair, thanks to his tremendous all-around season. The Braves became the monster team that they’ve been for the past four months pretty much right when Harris was called up. There were other factors for sure, but he’s one of the biggest.

4. , RHP, Braves (previous rank: 3)
And then there’s his teammate, the best rookie starter not only this year but in a few years. Strider led all rookies in K's by a healthy margin, and he also led rookie starters in ERA and WHIP. Oh, and in 131 2/3 innings, he allowed just seven homers. All year. Either Strider or Harris will win NL rookie honors, but again, the fact that we don’t know which makes it harder to vote for either of them in the top two.

5. , OF, Guardians (previous rank: 8)
Remember when Kwan was an April sensation? Then remember when he slumped a bit and was written off? He went on to enjoy an excellent year, the kind of season that in a normal rookie class wins you a very nice award. This is no normal rookie class though, so Kwan will have to settle for being an important part of a postseason team. He remained an OBP machine all year, stole 19 bases and scored 89 runs.

6. , SS, Royals (previous rank: 5)
Witt didn’t quite jump off the page like some of his fellow top prospects coming into the year, but he had a very nice year that probably won’t get enough credit. Witt cranked 20 homers and stole 30 bases, showing off the toolbox that had evaluators so excited coming into the year. He has some improvements to make going forward, but don’t lose sight of the fact that this was a heck of a year for a 22-year-old carrying the “franchise savior” tag on his back all year.

7. , RHP, Twins (previously unranked)
Ryan was so quietly, steadily effective that you could be forgiven for thinking he’d been in the Majors for 10 years. He didn’t rack up K's like Strider, but he led all rookies in innings (147) and tied with Glenn Otto for the lead with 27 starts, and simply cranked out quality outings for six months. He tied with George Kirby for the lead in quality starts, and the Twins were 17-10 when he took the mound.

8 (tie). Jeremy Peña, SS, Astros (previous rank: 9T)
Peña looked like a bonafide star in April and May, scuffled through August, then surged to a strong finish in September. That’s not a terribly unusual path for a rookie -- they figure out some things about you, then you figure out some things about them -- but it is encouraging when a young player is showing improvement at the end of the longest season of his career. Peña combines power with plus ability at shortstop, and that adds up to a valuable player.

8 (tie). , RHP, Mariners (previous rank: 6)
Kirby is another player on this list whose emergence coincided with his team’s surge. Seattle won 15 of Kirby’s final 21 starts. And while he had a couple of rough ones down the stretch, he didn’t walk more than one batter in any of his first 22 starts. He battled some long-ball troubles early in the year but put those behind him to be a critical member of the M’s rotation.

10. , UT, Cardinals (previously unranked)
Hey, what do you know? It’s another rookie who played an essential role on a playoff team. Donovan started at every position but catcher and center field for the Redbirds, and posted a .394 on-base percentage all the while. He batted first or second for most of the stretch run as the Cardinals ran away with the NL Central, scoring 21 runs in September and October alone.