20 (good and bad) first-half surprises

June 29th, 2019

We are halfway through this MLB season -- it happened so fast -- and while some players and teams are rolling so well right now that they’d love to just have the first half happen again, other players and teams would love to turn around and go back. At the halfway point of the season, then, we look at five teams and five players who have been glorious surprises for the first half … and five teams and five players who maybe wish they could start over entirely.

SURPRISING TEAMS

D-backs: The D-backs obviously weren’t planning on going all-in for the 2019 season: They did trade after all. But despite a recent losing skid, they’ve hung with some of the would-be contending big boys in the National League, thanks to a resurgent , positive performances from the two players they got in the Goldschmidt trade ( and ) and breakthrough seasons from and . The hill to climb in the NL is still a steep one -- and no one’s catching the Dodgers -- but whether or not the D-backs are in this to stay, they’ve shown some signs of hope, both for now and for the future.

Braves: All right, so the Braves won the NL East last year, so it’s not that surprising to see them in first place. But did you imagine pulling away from the supposedly strong NL East pack so quickly? Like last year, the Braves are benefiting from other teams in their division taking steps backwards, but the Braves are more than doing their part. The lineup has been strong top to bottom -- their worst-performing regular is , and Markakis is doing just fine -- and has been a revelation in the rotation, which now has around to help out. The NL East may not continue to recede, but Braves fans have to be ecstatic with their division lead so far.

Twins: Heading into Opening Day, the hope was that everything would fall just right -- the Indians would take a step back, the White Sox wouldn’t be ready, the offense would make up for a potentially shaky rotation -- so that the Twins could at least be within shouting distance of contention. Well, the shout has been heard: The Twins have the best record in the American League and may break the all-time home run record. The Twins aren’t just in a position to reach the ALDS for the first time since 2010, they might just have home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. Is this the year they finally win their first playoff series since 2002? Or even their first playoff game since '04?

Yankees: Well, obviously, no one thought the Yankees would be bad. But if you had said that their starting lineup in late April would feature , and -- and that neither nor would have thrown an inning through June -- you would assume the Red Sox had a 10-game lead on them. Nope: The Yankees’ Minor Leaguers didn’t just hold down the fort while so many star Yankees were injured, they actually built a division lead that now looks like it will never be relinquished.

Rangers: The Rangers thought they had some hitters, but they were so uncertain in the rotation they basically bought five veteran lottery tickets and crossed their fingers that they’d get lucky. Two of those pitchers, and , have very much paid off, but the real thrill has been finally becoming the hitter we all dreamed he might someday be. Add that to , and … whoa, is that ? -- and you’ve got a truly stunning playoff contender. Rangers fans didn’t imagine the last season of Globe Life Park would end in the postseason. But it is absolutely on the table now.

SURPRISING PLAYERS

, OF, Dodgers: We all knew Bellinger would be good, but … this? Bellinger is on pace for 50 homers and he’s hitting .350 and he has the highest on-base percentage in the NL. He’s also the defensive whiz we always knew he was and is leading the Dodgers to the best record in baseball. Bellinger has never hit over .267. Again, he's at .350!

, RHP, White Sox: Giolito might not have been the worst pitcher in baseball in 2018, but he sure was close. He had a 6.13 ERA. He led the Majors in earned runs, and the AL in walks, with nearly five per nine innings. The White Sox had to wonder what, exactly, they got from the Nationals in the Adam Eaton trade. Well: They know now. Giolito is 10-2, with a 2.87 ERA and 11 strikeouts per nine innings. All of a sudden, the White Sox have one of the most valuable commodities in all of baseball: A 24-year-old ace.

Ketel Marte, 2B/CF, D-backs: Heading into this season, Marte had 22 career homers in 402 career games. In 2016, he had 466 plate appearances and hit one. Now? He’s on pace for 39, and he leads the NL in hits. It may seem like Marte has been around forever, but he hasn’t: He’s only 25. The D-backs may have just stumbled across a building block, a player who can sit in the center of all their plans for years to come.

John Means, LHP, Orioles: Means was on no one’s prospects lists heading into this season, and that includes those of hard-core Orioles’ fans. He was at best roster churn, a lefty reliever who might sneak up to the bigs for 10 days or so at a stretch. Instead, he showed up at camp with an extra eight mph on his fastball, and he turned himself not only into the Orioles’ best pitcher, but a legitimate Rookie of the Year candidate.

, SS, Twins: The general consensus when the Twins signed Polanco to an extension in the offseason was that they’d locked up a key player to a fair market deal, but that was about it. Turns out they got themselves a superstar, who was just voted the AL starter in the All-Star Game. Polanco has set career highs in just about every offensive category so far, and he’s been the centerpiece of a team that has taken the AL by storm.

DISAPPOINTING TEAMS

Red Sox: This, of course, could have gone so much worse: Don’t think, after that start, there weren’t some Red Sox diehards worried that Boston’s odd worst-to-first-and-back-again motif of the last decade wasn’t repeating itself. The Red Sox have righted the ship somewhat, but they still have a long hill left to climb, and the Yankees are so far ahead of them they can barely see them. The Red Sox might still make the playoffs, but this was one of the best teams in recent baseball history last year. That’s not what they were in the first half.

Mets: So, what has gone right for the Mets so far? . . . Maybe . What has gone wrong? Everything else. The rotation has regressed, the bullpen has been brutal and , the most famous offseason addition, seemingly can’t hit anymore.

Pirates: If you’ll forgive the back-patting here, some of us were extremely skeptical about the trade on the deadline last year:

It’s fair to stay the trade has turned out even worse than even us skeptics anticipated: Archer has a 5.50 ERA, looks like a star for the Rays, and -- when healthy -- is a rotation mainstay. They’ve also have a run differential of -54, which is the third-worst rate in the NL. Now what do the Pirates do?

Cardinals: The Cardinals are still hanging around the NL Wild Card chase, but there’s no question that fans had higher hopes for this team after trading for (and extending) Goldschmidt and signing , particularly after a blistering start. Since winning on May 1 to go to 20-10, the Cardinals are 20-29, with a lineup that has not hit. Goldschmidt and were supposed to be stars, but they’re off to the worst starts of their careers. Add that to an underwhelming rotation and the loss of closer , the Cardinals are in danger of their longest postseason drought since 1988-95.

Nationals: Despite losing , many thought the Nationals could hang in in the NL East behind all that young talent and that always-solid rotation, boosted by . But the bullpen has done in the Nats again, and despite a recent run that has pushed them into third place, they’re still underachieving and under .500. This is a pivotal year for the Nationals, particularly with a free agent at the end of the season. If it’s not working for the Nationals this year, when is it going to work for them?

DISAPPOINTING PLAYERS

Robinson Cano, 2B, Mets: You can see what Mets general manager Brodie Van Wagenen was thinking when he traded for Cano and . Diaz would fix the bullpen problem (well ….) and Cano, despite his suspension last year, had shown he still had plenty of pop in his bat. But it sure doesn’t look great for either of them so far in 2019, especially Cano, who seems to have gotten old overnight. Ever single offensive stat is the lowest of his career by a wide margin, and the once-reliably-healthy eight-time All-Star has spent 25 games on the injured list as well. He’s still signed through 2023, if you were wondering.

, RHP, Braves: Folty was an All-Star who finished eighth in NL Cy Young Award voting last year, but an injury to start the season put him behind, and he hasn’t yet caught up. In 11 starts, he has a 6.37 ERA and was recently sent down to Triple-A. He’s only 27, and the Braves are still in first place, so all is not lost. But this is not how this was supposed to go.

, RHP, Dodgers: Take your pick of him or Miller for disappointing free-agent relievers, but at least Miller has picked it up lately. Kelly has been a mess from the start for Los Angeles -- you know, the team he dominated in the World Series last year -- with a 6.15 ERA. The walks are as prevalent as they have always been, but the home runs and (especially) the hit rate are way up. The strikeout rate is high enough that you think there’s hope, but Kelly is now hurting the Dodgers while wearing their uniform about as much as he hurt them last October when he wasn’t.

José Ramírez, INF, Indians: It is difficult to find parallels to what has happened to Ramirez, who started out his career as a light-hitting basestealer, turned into one of the best all-around players in baseball and then, out of nowhere, fell off a cliff this season. It’s the power that has vanished the most: He’s slugging more than 200 points lower than he did last year. He’s still only 26.

, INF, Brewers: Shaw was one of the Brewers’ more consistent hitters over the past two years, making the Red Sox rue ever trading him. But he has plummeted back to earth this year, hitting a stunning .164 with only six homers. He has more than 30 the last two years. That explains why he was just optioned to Triple-A to make room for hot-hitting prospect Keston Hiura.