Framber Valdez is the last of the top free-agent arms available.
The market for Valdez developed slower than some expected, perhaps due to his age and mileage, the qualifying offer attached to him and a controversial interaction with his catcher toward the end of last season. But with other top arms like Dylan Cease, Ranger Suárez and Michael King off the board, bidding for Valdez's services will now intensify.
Valdez can help any club seeking a top-of-the-rotation arm, but he is most often connected to the Orioles, Giants, Mets and Cubs in media reports. (It’s possible that, in light of signing Alex Bregman, the Cubs are done making major free-agent splashes, but we’ll keep them here for the purposes of this exercise. And while the Mets have preferred to avoid awarding long-term deals to starting pitchers in recent years, the reported signing of Bo Bichette does nothing to address the lack of certainty in their rotation.)
Among those contenders, where would he make the most impact?
As a left-handed, ground ball-producing machine who relies more on the defense behind him than high-strikeout aces, his environment is more important than a pitcher like Cease.
To examine where he best fits, let's consider a few variables.
Defense
Valdez is an extreme ground-ball pitcher. His 62% ground-ball mark since 2021 ranks fourth among qualified arms. He leads baseball in double plays generated since 2021.
To get the most out of Valdez, a team must field a strong infield defense.
The Cubs have the top infield defense among the main Valdez suitors due to the elite gloves of Dansby Swanson, Nico Hoerner, Matt Shaw and now Alex Bregman added to the mix.
By Defensive Runs Saved and Outs Above Average last season, the Cubs hold a significant edge in maximizing Valdez’s unique ability to induce ground balls.
The Cubs' infield defense combined for +11 OAA last season (12th in MLB), and a +66 DRS mark (2nd in MLB). The next-ranking club among the Valdez contenders in OAA was the Mets (-3 OAA), while the Giants follow in DRS with +39.
Best defense for Valdez: Cubs
“Neighborhood”
While Valdez does not have extreme splits for his career, he's still better against lefties (17.6% K-BB%, .223 opponent batting average) than he is vs. righties for his career (14.1 K-BB%, .230 opponent BA).
While there's always change year-over-year in lineup composition, there were great differences in left-handed plate appearances by division last season.
For instance, there were nearly double the amount of lefty hitters fielded by the top-ranking AL East (13,006 left-handed plate appearances) compared to the last-ranking AL West (7,524).
The Orioles played in the most left-handed heavy “neighborhood,” facing the most left-handed batters last season (2,819 plate appearances) of any of Valdez’s main suitors. They were followed by the Giants (2,740) and Mets (2,734), with the Cubs (2,473) lagging behind.
In other words, Orioles pitchers were 14% more likely than a Cubs arm to face a left-handed batter last season. The AL East figures to remain as left-handed heavy as any division.
Best “neighborhood” for Valdez: Orioles
Ballpark
The commonly cited contenders for Valdez generally have favorable pitching environments.
The Cubs and Giants are tied for 26th in Baseball Savant's three-year rolling ballpark factors measure. Citi Field and Camden Yards have also been some of the more favorable places to pitch in the last three seasons.
The Orioles' home is a fascinating case. Adjustment to bringing the fences in last season did return Camden to being a hitter's ballpark, ranking as the sixth-most favorable park.
But there's a dramatic performance split in Baltimore that makes a case for the importance of rostering left-handed pitchers there.
Over the past three years, Oriole Park at Camden Yards owns the widest split between favorability for left-handed versus right-handed batters, ranking as the 7th-best venue for lefty batters, but 23rd for righties.
If we isolate just for right-handed batters, whom left-handed pitchers will face more often, Wrigley Field trails only T-Mobile Park over the past three years in terms of most suppressed offensive performance, just out-pacing Oracle Park (96 to 97).
Best ballpark for Valdez: Push
Rotation projection
Most important is the quality of the club's rotations. Which teams have the greatest need?
By this year's FanGraphs.com's depth charts projections, this is how the Valdez contenders ranked entering Jan. 15: Mets 11.8 (17th), Orioles 11.5 (18th), Cubs 11.2 (19th), Giants 10.4 (24th).
It's a log jam.
The Giants have just one lefty projected in their rotation at the moment in Robbie Ray. While the club added Tyler Mahle to the rotation, they could still benefit from another top-level arm to place alongside Logan Webb.
The Mets have made no major additions to their rotation, though they will have a full season from top prospect Nolan McLean and have other top prospect arms like Jonah Tong ready to help as well. They enjoy significant internal growth potential. The club is also hopeful to get more innings out of one of two lefties slotted in their rotation in Sean Manaea. And in an effort to keep up with the Dodgers, the Mets could pivot to fortifying their rotation with as much star power as possible.
In Chicago, the Cubs added Edward Cabrera, but Valdez would still fit comfortably atop the rotation.
The Orioles did make a significant trade to acquire Shane Baz from Tampa Bay, though he's far from a proven commodity. The club is also hoping for a full season from Kyle Bradish, who was excellent in his return late last season. Still, they are the only contender in this group without a pitcher to reach a 3 fWAR level last season.
Weakest projected rotation: Giants
Obviously, each of these clubs would benefit by having Valdez's track record of durability and quality in their rotation. Every MLB club would. But because of their tough neighborhood, because of a lack of a proven top-of-rotation need in their rotation, and because their ballpark is much more favorable to left-handed hitters than right – Valdez fits best in Baltimore.
The Orioles have made a big effort to improve this offseason by adding Pete Alonso and Taylor Ward to strengthen their lineup, and adding Baz to their rotation. But to truly compete with the Blue Jays, Yankees, Red Sox and Rays, they need even more help in their rotation.