The Guardians have been in this predicament before.
Just a few weeks ago, we were all trying to predict what would happen when both Aaron Civale and Triston McKenzie returned to the rotation with only one open spot. At that time, Tanner Bibee and Logan Allen had earned their places on this roster, which created a head-scratching situation for the Guardians to figure out. But when Cal Quantrill landed on the injured list, it delayed the team having to make a decision.
Now, it’s even tougher.
Not only do the Guardians have both Bibee and Allen in their rotation, but Gavin Williams -- the team’s No. 1 prospect as ranked by MLB Pipeline -- is now in the mix. Quantrill is scheduled to make his first rehab start today in Akron. He’s expected to then fly with the Guardians to Kansas City and will likely be activated in time to make his next start with the big league club.
So, who goes down?
Guardians manager Terry Francona has already said that Quantrill will be inserted back into the rotation. So, the first question on everyone’s minds is whether the Guardians could just go to a six-man rotation. It’s something the team has considered, but that’s not the likely path it’ll take.
“If you go to a six-man, you’re actually making your bullpen shorter,” Francona said. “I can see us, like when we insert Cal, trying to use that maybe as a once through where you get an extra starter. But I don’t know that we could stay with it. I don’t see how we would do it.”
The Guardians can’t afford to take anyone away from the bullpen this season for multiple reasons. After tomorrow’s off-day, the Guardians won’t have a break until All-Star week, which begins on July 10. So, the bullpen would struggle to get by on just seven arms. (Friendly reminder: There’s a 13-pitcher maximum for rosters.)
Beyond the All-Star break, the Guardians will need to keep a close eye on the innings of Bibee, Allen and/or Williams as their totals creep over 100. Bibee and Allen have never thrown more than 132 2/3 innings in a season. Williams peaked at 115. So, if any of these three -- whomever may make up the rotation at that time -- are having to make shorter starts, the bullpen will need to be at capacity.
Let’s repeat: So, who goes down? The simple answer: I don’t think the team even knows yet.
I’m glad I’m not the one having to make this decision because it’ll truly be difficult to choose. Bibee had some difficult starts over the last few weeks, but he showed on Saturday that he can dig deep and grind through a sixth inning with his pitch count creeping over 100 -- all while his fastball looked the best (and fastest) it had in the game. His future is bright. His stuff is impressive. There are so many reasons to want to see more.
But there are the same reasons for Allen. He, like Bibee, has been up since April and has had some shorter outings with high pitch counts over the last few weeks. But he has similar expectations as Bibee, and his strikeout numbers in the Minors were off the charts, leaving everyone ready to see what else he has in the tank with more opportunities.
And then there’s Williams, who just got to the big leagues this week. He comes with tremendous hype because he’s the club’s top prospect and No. 15 on the Top 100 list. His heater can get over 100 mph and his breaking pitches have developed tremendously in the past year, making his arsenal even better than advertised coming out of college.
He hasn’t had the same time as Bibee and Allen, so maybe it’s easier to send him down. But maybe not, if he makes his next two outings and gives no reason for a demotion to Triple-A Columbus.
The Guardians have a lot of complicated scenarios with their roster this year. But this, at least, is a good problem to have.
Mandy Bell covers the Guardians for MLB.com. Listen to her on the Ballpark Dimensions podcast with Sarah Langs.