Inbox: When will FA market start moving?

Mark Feinsand answers Hot Stove questions from fans

December 23rd, 2020

Unless you’re a Dodgers fan, you’re probably not sad to see 2020 come to an end.

A new year is right around the corner, which is good news for just about everybody. It’s particularly good for baseball’s free agents, who might finally see some action on the market in the coming weeks.

With 2021 rapidly approaching, it seemed like an appropriate time to do one final Inbox for the year. Here’s wishing all of you a healthy and happy new year and better things ahead for all of us.

As always, you can send your Hot Stove questions to me on Twitter: @feinsand.

All I want for Christmas are some MLB transactions, but apparently Santa hates me. Will they start to rename it the "Lukewarm Stove Season?"
-- @R_Crossingham

Why does MLB’s free-agent process drag on seemingly forever, whereas top talent in other sports often gets snatched up quickly, establishing the market?
-- @WhiteSoxGolfGuy

These two questions seemed to go together, so I’ll answer them both at the same time.

This year’s free-agent market is indeed moving at a glacial pace, but how different is that from 2017 or '18? Both of those offseasons were brutally slow; remember talking about Bryce Harper and Manny Machado’s free agency into February?

Last year proved to be refreshingly different, as Stephen Strasburg, Gerrit Cole and Anthony Rendon all signed during the Winter Meetings. This year, however, has not followed suit.

The markets for the top free agents -- Trevor Bauer, J.T. Realmuto, George Springer, DJ LeMahieu and Marcell Ozuna -- have remained mostly quiet, and it appears that will likely be the case into the early weeks of 2021. We’ve seen some starting pitchers sign, as well as a position player or two, but the COVID-related uncertainty over the '21 season has left teams in wait-and-see mode in terms of their budgets for next season.

Now, comparing baseball’s free agency to those of other major sports is apples and oranges. The NBA, NFL and NHL all have salary caps, so teams, players and their agents know who is set up to spend what, which makes the process that much easier. That creates a race to sign players, because there are only so many to go around.

Baseball’s financial structure is such that teams are able to spend what they wish, which creates an open market for free agents. As long as there’s no cap, baseball free agency will continue to be a marathon instead of the sprint we see in other sports.

How much has the shortened season affected the free-agent market?
-- @aimeegerf

This could have been part of the previous answer, but I felt it deserved its own spot. The 60-game season has played a huge role in the slow pace of free agency, as executives are being forced to evaluate players based on a much smaller sample size.

Trying to make sense of a shortened season when you’re attempting to project how a player will perform in the future can be tricky. This is going to be a big sticking point in arbitration, as well. Evaluating a player when he only played in 37 percent of games as a normal season isn’t easy. Forgetting all of the other factors that are slowing up the market, you’d have to think the oddity of the 2020 season is having quite an impact.

Will Bauer ever sign?
-- @BengalsCeo

Ah, a question about a player! The short answer is: Of course. I don’t see Bauer retiring, so he will obviously sign with a team before the 2021 season. Could his free agency go into February? Possibly. But I think the same could be said of just about any other player, too.

Bauer’s free agency has been the one I’ve been most interested in, because he has stated in the past that he would sign a series of one-year deals for the rest of his career. Coming off of a Cy Young Award-winning season, I have to imagine that he’ll wind up signing a multiyear deal worth nine figures, but Bauer is a different type of guy, so he could decide to stick to his guns and sign a high-AAV deal for one year -- especially with the collective bargaining agreement set to expire less than a year from now.

Whether Bauer decides on a multiyear deal or a one-year pact, the Mets are the team to watch here. They have already passed on Realmuto by signing James McCann, but they remain one of the rare teams with plenty of money to spend. Their rotation looks good on paper, but after Jacob deGrom, there are question marks.

How will Noah Syndergaard and Marcus Stroman perform after their respective injuries? Will Steven Matz bounce back? Will David Peterson experience a sophomore slump? Will Seth Lugo be a starter or a reliever?

Bauer would slot in nicely as a 1B to deGrom’s 1A, giving the Mets the best 1-2 punch in the game. Several other teams will be in the mix for Bauer, but the Mets feel like the team ready to take the jump to sign him.

Do you believe the Phillies have a better chance of signing Realmuto now that the Mets have signed McCann?
-- @harpm2012

Absolutely. Once the Mets moved on from the idea of signing Realmuto, the market for the All-Star catcher lost one of its biggest potential suitors.

Several teams are still interested in Realmuto, but a return to the Phillies seems most logical. The hiring of Dave Dombrowski as president of baseball operations is also a factor here; Dombrowski isn’t going to be a free-wheeling spender this offseason, but bringing back Realmuto would be a key move for the next four years.

Who is the Braves closer if the season started today, and what are the chances of the Braves re-signing Mark Melancon?
-- @BSum94

I would have to guess it would be Will Smith. Atlanta gave him a three-year deal worth $39 million, and although his 2020 season was less than ideal, there were some circumstances that makes one think '21 will be better.

Smith missed all of Summer Camp after testing positive for COVID-19, and although he never had any symptoms, he was forced to miss the start of the season, making his debut on Aug. 9.

Smith gave up just 11 hits in 16 innings, but seven of them left the yard. That’s 3.9 home runs per nine innings, which is more than triple his career average. There’s no reason to think he’ll repeat that in 2021, and with a proper Spring Training, he should be in better position to succeed next season.

As for Melancon, it’s unlikely that he’ll be back with the Braves. Having already spent $26 million to sign Drew Smyly and Charlie Morton, Atlanta probably has one more big move left. That’s going to be either a hitter to replace Ozuna, or possibly Ozuna himself.

When does LeMahieu sign with the Yanks?
-- @FollowIAM777

Surely at some point, I would think. LeMahieu has a number of suitors including the Blue Jays, but I would still be shocked if he doesn’t wind up back in the Bronx.

Who’s your favorite MLB insider?
-- @DONTworry818

I have great respect for all of my competitors, and while Ken Rosenthal remains the gold standard for all of us, I would have to say that my favorite is my dear friend Jeff Passan.

Yes, he’s a great reporter and one of my favorite writers to read. But this pick has nothing to do with any of that. There’s nothing like getting a random voice text from Passan in a spot-on Elmo voice. It’s pure genius. He’s wasting his time with this baseball reporting stuff.