ST. LOUIS -- Now a month into the Hot Stove season, we're beginning to see momentum building in both the free-agent and trade markets. With the Cardinals deep into their efforts to improve the roster and the Winter Meetings around the corner, let's take a look at where some of those pursuits may lead them.
The Cardinals will never be in a better position to wade into the deep end of the free-agent pool and land Bryce Harper with the largest offer. Without competition from the largest markets and with the current payroll room, if they can't make a deal like this happen now, when will they?
-- Aaron O. (@ATO11USA)
Without question, the Cardinals are positioned as well as any team to make a significant splash in free agency. They have substantial payroll flexibility, long-term need and a compelling sales pitch. But while there may not be interest in Harper by all the big-market teams, there is enough to assure a bidding war. Don't minimize the willingness of other clubs to spend, too. Keep an eye on the Phillies, Nationals and White Sox, in particular.
That being said, this winter does present a unique opportunity for the Cardinals. Not only are they positioned to pounce, but there are young, superstar players on the market. To spend money on a player who is entering his age-26 season is much more palatable than offering a long-term deal to one in his 30s. Without question, the organization will have to wade outside its comfort zone to make such a move. But there's a compelling argument that such a shift is necessary if the Cards want to reassert themselves as among the National League's best.
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Everyone seems to be ignoring that the Cardinals have no closer. Jordan Hicks clearly doesn't have the command to take over, and Carlos Martinez is needed to be a healthy starter. The team clearly does not pay big money in extended deals for closers, and the Greg Holland bust will make them trigger shy. So where do the Cardinals turn?
-- Ken C., Long Beach, Calif.
I don't think the fact that the Cardinals are without a designated closer is going ignored, though I would agree that it has been overshadowed by interest in the Cardinals' offensive pursuits. There are a few different directions the Cards could go to address this need. They could lean on internal options (i.e. Hicks), they could sign a proven closer (i.e. Craig Kimbrel) or they could add to their bullpen depth with the expectation that someone grows into that closer they need.
There were lessons learned from that failed Holland signing. For one, it did not benefit the team or player to wait until after Spring Training to reach an agreement. We'll never know how much the inability to get ready in a traditional camp setting hurt Holland, but I think it's fair to speculate there was some causation there.
From a broader scope, this industry has been repeatedly reminded that long-term, big-money deals for closers rarely offer the desired long-term return. The bullpen is a volatile area for large investment, and the Cardinals' preference would be to avoid signing a proven closer to a long-term deal. Not only would that come with great risk, but it would also block someone like Hicks from sliding into that role when ready.
My expectation is the club adds back-end bullpen depth and then, similar to last year, waits to see which reliever emerges as the best ninth-inning fit.
If the Cardinals miss on Harper or Manny Machado this year, is there a chance they put off finding their big catch until next year when Nolan Arenado, Anthony Rendon and Paul Goldschmidt will be free agents?
-- Stephen M.
That could be a fallback option, but also a risky one. If the team is unsuccessful swimming in the deep end of the free-agent pool this year, how can you be assured they'd reel in their target next offseason?
If the Cardinals don't improve their offense, it's hard to make an argument that they'd be in position to leap any of the NL clubs that finished ahead of them this year. Missing the postseason for three consecutive years is an indication that more than incremental enhancements are needed. It'd also be tough for the Cardinals -- who were clear about their intention to add an impact bat this year -- to sell anything short of that to an increasingly agitated fan base.
Furthermore, it would represent a significant roster gamble, as the Cardinals are already poised to lose several key contributors after the 2019 season. Marcell Ozuna, Miles Mikolas, Michael Wacha, Matt Carpenter and Jedd Gyorko are entering the final guaranteed years of their contracts. Even though the Cards do hold club options with Carpenter and Gyorko, the idea of them needing to land an impact bat next winter along with filling the holes created by these upcoming departures could be too long a checklist for one offseason. In a perfect world, the Cards can find a long-term piece for their offense now so that's not a need again in 12 months.
Do you sense that the front office is frustrated that their own fan base thinks they are cheap and money hungry even though they have been willing to spend big over the last few years, including trying to land the largest contract of any sports figure on the planet last year?
-- Rich T., Hume, Ill.
No, I think the front office respects that the fan base is frustrated by three straight seasons without a playoff appearance. And they share the frustrations of the fan base when it comes to being relegated to bridesmaid status at the end of so many recent pursuits. The Cardinals have demonstrated a willingness to spend. What I think has perhaps been missing, though, is the willingness to push toward the uncomfortable. Reward can't come without risk, and in this sport, sometimes that requires overspending to beat out your competition. The Cards, in taking more conservative paths to building their roster in recent years, have three years of empty Octobers to show for it.