Inbox: Who might make their O's debut in '20?

Beat reporter Joe Trezza answers questions from fans

July 2nd, 2020

Hello again, Orioles fans.

It’s been a while, but we are back and so is baseball. With Summer Camp fast approaching, here is a batch of questions and answers as we await the first day of Orioles workouts on Friday.

Which players do you anticipate making their MLB debuts this year for the O's?
-- @Ben_Dewhirst

Now that the Draft is complete, this is the most important question for the organization this year in my mind. It all depends on how the Orioles choose to utilize their secondary camp, and how valuable the development some of their almost big league ready prospects can get there compares to the type they’d receive via Major League game action, even if they’re not quite ready for it. It’s a tricky thing, with no historical precedent. And the Orioles, for their part, haven’t really provided much clarity yet on how they’re planning to operate in this space.

The short answer is they’ll probably handle the equation on a case-by-case basis, and that’ll mean different things for different players. Depending on how you look at it, the four-month layoff can either speed up a prospects timeline or delay it. I’d assume it would delay things for someone like No. 7 prospect Yusniel Diaz, who looked like a potential September callup, but still is yet to appear at Triple-A. While things could accelerate for someone like No. 28 Bruce Zimmerman, who is already 25, has had a taste of Triple-A and is coming off a strong spring.

It may not be a popular decision, but I wouldn’t be surprised if the club acted more conservatively than people expect on this front. It’s no coincidence the Orioles invited only two (Austin Hays and Hunter Harvey) of their Top 30 prospects to Summer Camp, comprising their 44-man player pool exclusively with candidates to make the Opening Day roster. If there was a rush to get more prospects into as many games as possible, they’d have been part of that pool. Which is why I’d estimate fewer prospects debut in a shortened season than would’ve during a normal year. So if that number was going to be five, maybe now it’s three, especially since 60 games will be seen as a “full season” for service time considerations.

Do you think we'll see Ryan Mountcastle or Keegan Akin from the start with such an abbreviated season?
-- @PaulValleIII

No. Because they weren’t included in the Orioles' initial 44-man player pool. But they’re still the most interesting prospect cases in my mind as it relates to the previous question. Of the several prospects set to debut in 2020, Mountcastle and Akin were considered the most big league ready, with a full year of Triple-A under their belts. Both were expected to debut at some point in the first half.

Let’s say the Orioles thought they needed two more months of Triple-A seasoning. Well, now there are only two months of games, period. So do you hold them back or let them loose? It’ll be something to monitor once secondary camp opens; my gut says we’ll eventually at least see Mountcastle at some point, given the roster void left by Trey Mancini’s colon cancer diagnosis.

How is it going with the Orioles signing their Draft picks?
-- @ChicoSalmonFan

In signing first-round pick Heston Kjerstad on Tuesday, the Orioles have now signed three of their six selections. They have unofficially agreed to terms with two others, fourth-rounder Coby Mayo and fifth-round pitcher Carter Baumler. The only draftee they’ve yet to agree with is third-round shortstop Anthony Servideo. The O's have a sizeable chunk of their bonus pool remaining and signability is not expected to be a hurdle.

Is the market for guys like Mychal Givens or other trade assets going to be strong because teams want to make the strongest roster possible? Or will it be weak, because teams are hesitant to spend prospect equity when things are tight?
-- @Gorav114

Probably the latter. This will be a Trade Deadline like no other, so nobody really knows how it’ll play out, but the industry sense is that the shortened season will incentivize teams less to part with prospects for short-term rentals. That’s in large part because the rentals themselves would be shorter than usual: players on expiring contracts acquired at the Aug. 31 deadline would be looking at just one month of regular-season games at minimum with their new club. Even in a 60-game sprint where contenders will be plentiful, it’s hard to see teams sacrificing big chunks of their futures for risky, short-sample returns.

What top prospects do you think make the taxi squad strictly for development?
-- @AdleyClutschman

One quick bit of semantics clarification before we get into the weeds here: it’s important to differentiate the terms “taxi squad” from “player pool.” The player pool is the 60-man roster from which teams will have to choose their active rosters. The taxi squad is the three-man group teams will bring with them on every road trip in case of injury. So I think you’re asking about player pool, where the Orioles are expected to stash some of their bigger-name prospects so they can work out in a controlled environment.

By setting their initial player pool at 44, the Orioles theoretically left 16 spots open for this purpose. But I think that number will ultimately be lower, as they leave some room for flexibility to add depth through the waiver wire. Ultimately, I think the big names will be part of the secondary camp, including Adley Rutschman, Grayson Rodriguez, DL Hall and definitely Mountcastle. I expect a few 2020 Draft picks to be included also.

Do you feel Zach Pop will make the 60-man roster?
-- @dgpatter

Remember Pop, part of the five-player package the Orioles received from the Dodgers for Manny Machado? He is an interesting under-the-radar case, now roughly 14 months removed from Tommy John surgery and a few months away from requiring the O’s to decide whether or not to add him to the 40-man roster. He is an intriguing Rule 5 Draft candidate if they don’t, a 6-foot-4 sidearming sinker-slider reliever whose fastball flirted with triple-digits pre-surgery. He arrived before the current front office did and has hardly pitched with Baltimore. It may be worth a player pool spot for the Orioles to simply get eyes on him this summer.