Why the bevy of unsigned Draft picks?

June 28th, 2018

I'm writing this from Omaha, Neb., where I'm attending my 30th College World Series, which remains my favorite baseball event after all these years. One of the reasons I love the CWS is quality and intensity of the competition, which was on display again with a classic Oregon State comeback on Wednesday night.
If Arkansas could have caught a foul pop with two out in the ninth, it would have won its first national title. Instead, the ball dropped between three Razorbacks. Two pitches later, Beavers shortstop Cadyn Grenier (a supplemental first-round pick by the Orioles) delivered a game-tying single, and three pitches after that, right fielder Trevor Larnach (a first-rounder by the Twins) hammered a ball into the right-field bullpen to force a winner-take-all game this evening.
It's not the most stunning turn of events I've witnessed in Omaha -- Warren Morris' walk-off home run in 1996 is impossible to top -- but it would rank a close second. I can't wait to see what Arkansas and Oregon State have in store for us in the finale.
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Just three players selected in the first 10 rounds of the 2017 Draft didn't agree to contracts, and that number was up from '16, when only two failed to do so. The signing deadline is eight days away on July 6, and while the pace of signings is slower than it has been in two years, I still expect that the vast majority of top-10-rounders will turn pro.
As of today, 14 of the 35 first-round picks remain unsigned, compared to 11 of 36 at the same point a year ago. Each of those players will be offered at least a $2 million bonus, and most will receive $3 million or more. Even if asking prices aren't completely met in the cases where financial parameters weren't agreed to before the Draft, that kind of money will prove hard to turn down.
For more on this subject, check out the video at the top of this Inbox.

I'd stack up Gimenez, Alonso and Kelenic in that order, but it would be easy to defend any ranking. Gimenez gets the nod for me because he plays quality defense at a premium position (shortstop) while offering solid hitting ability and speed.
Alonso has posted impressive power numbers since signing as a second-round pick in 2016, already has reached Triple-A and can make a case for being the best first-base prospect in baseball. The No. 6 overall pick in the 2018 Draft, Kelenic was the best high school hitter available, could have solid tools across the board and has a chance to stay in center field.

In a Braves system loaded with pitching prospects, outfielder Drew Waters and third baseman Jean Carlos Encarnacion are emerging as two of the better young hitters. Signed for $1.5 million as a second-round pick out of a Georgia high school a year ago, Waters is batting .297/.347/.530 as a 19-year-old in low Class A. He could have four plus tools in his power, speed, center-field defense and arm strength, and he's on the verge of joining MLB Pipeline's Top 100 Prospects list.
Signed for just $10,000 out of the Dominican Republic in 2016, Encarnacion has a bevy of tools as well. He has plus raw power and arm strength, runs well for his size (6-foot-3) and has the upside of at least a solid defender at third base. Encarnacion is hitting .298/.325/.450 for Rome at age 20, though he'll need to improve his plate discipline.

Excluding Stanford shortstop Nico Hoerner, the No. 24 overall pick, supplemental second-rounder Cole Roederer is the most intriguing prospect from the Cubs' 2018 Draft. A California high schooler who signed for an over-slot $1.2 million, he has a solid power/speed combination and is a potential five-tool center fielder.
Brennen Davis, another prep outfielder, also bears watching. A former basketball star who landed a $1.1 million bonus in the second round, he has well-above-average speed that makes him an asset on the bases as well as in center field, and he also has projectable power.