Understanding the value of Votto in '23

August 20th, 2023

This story was excerpted from Mark Sheldon’s Reds Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

In the final year of his contract, the final month of his 30s, and possibly -- though not certainly -- in the final few weeks of his long and illustrious Cincinnati career, it’s clear that 39-year-old Joey Votto isn’t the same hitter who won the MVP Award in 2010 or the one who hit 36 home runs as recently as two seasons ago. In fact, given the .206 batting average he carries into Sunday, you might be tempted to say he’s no longer a productive member of the lineup.

That’s not entirely true, though. Because he’s still hitting for power -- a .484 slugging percentage is the third-best on the team among those with as many plate appearances as he’s had -- his OPS is .795, which makes him 16 percent better than the league average as a hitter. But most notably, he’s still mashing fastballs about as well as anyone else in the game.

Highest slugging % against fastballs, 2023 (through Thursday)

.771 // Shohei Ohtani

.765 // Votto

.730 // Aaron Judge

.694 // Jose Altuve

.685 // Corey Seager minimum 75 PA ending in fastballs

That’s an impressive list to be on, and for Votto, it hasn’t mattered what kind of fastball it’s been. Four-seamers? .735 SLG. Sinkers? It’s .765. Cutters? How about .867? Really, it’s just about catching up to velocity, since he’s got a .739 slugging against pitches of 95+ MPH, notably taking a 97.2 MPH heater from Miami rookie sensation Eury Perez out of the park on Aug. 7.

Now: Is it possible that he’s cheating a bit on fastballs, that he’s getting his bat started a little quicker to catch up to velocity, which then leaves him vulnerable to offspeed and breaking pitches? It certainly is, because against those non-fastballs, it’s all of .111/.179/.208, which is quite poor. Then again, he does turn 40 on Sept. 10. Expectations should be set accordingly. So long as he can be placed in the right situations to succeed, against the right kind of pitcher, there’s life in the bat yet.