Kiermaier had a 15% chance to catch this. Guess what happened?

June 1st, 2023

TORONTO -- just painted another masterpiece.

In a career defined by brilliant defensive plays, Thursday’s diving catch at Rogers Centre has to rank near the top as Kiermaier went from a full sprint to fully extending in the air, robbing the Brewers' Andruw Monasterio of extra bases in the Blue Jays' 3-1 victory

As the ball soared towards the warning track in right-center, Kiermaier needed to cover 92 feet in just 4.7 seconds to make the catch. Even a “good” athlete comes up well short of making this catch, but Kiermaier reached a sprint speed of 30.4 feet per second, north of the 30 ft./sec. that Statcast uses as the bar for “elite” speed.

The result? Kiermaier making one of the plays of the season on a ball that had just a 15% catch probability.

“Holy [crap], basically,” John Schneider said. “From everyone, him included. You don’t expect that, but you’ve seen it enough that when the ball goes up, you think you’ve got the guy [who can catch it]. Everyone, from the players to the staff, it was, ‘Holy [crap].’”

, watching from the mound, had a similar reaction.

“Probably another cuss word that I shouldn’t say," Gausman said.

Kiermaier is a three-time Gold Glove Award winner, but for Blue Jays fans who spent most of the past decade watching him patrol center for the Rays, it feels like he’s won 10. He still ranks among the game’s best, too, with his five Outs Above Average (OAA) tying him for second among all qualified center fielders in MLB, trailing only Luis Robert Jr. of the White Sox with six.

“I told him after the game that it looked like he had no chance to get to that from my vantage point,” Gausman said. “Then he just came out of nowhere and made the play. You love to see guys that play like that. I respect Kevin a lot because of that. I watched him do that a lot [when I was] in Baltimore, so I’m happy he’s doing it for me now.”

This is exactly what the Blue Jays envisioned when they signed him to a one-year, $9 million deal in the offseason, but Kiermaier’s all-around game has exceeded all expectations. Kiermaier is holding true to his promise to be “the best No. 9 hitter in baseball”, and once again, he’s proving that he is still a human highlight reel the moment the ball is hit in the air.