2 key questions for every NL West team

July 20th, 2020

Throughout February and March, I spent a disturbingly large percentage of my pre-pandemic hours writing incredibly long division season previews for a season that, as it turned out, would not happen. In these previews, I asked (and tried to answer) five big questions about each team in each division and then, at the end, predicted exact records for every one of them. For what it’s worth, every one of these predictions would have been right on the money, had the season happened as scheduled. Trust me.

Anyway, now that we are getting a truncated season, it’s time to dig back into these previews, under the decidedly new and unprecedented circumstances we find ourselves facing. Because there are only 60 games now, rather than 162, we will ask only two questions in these previews, often relating to these decidedly new and unprecedented circumstances we find ourselves facing. The predictions are still coming, though, and they’re still 100 percent guaranteed correct. These will run twice a week until the season begins Thursday.

So far:

Today, we finish the series with the NL West.

D-backs
1. Who’s the bigger new addition: Bumgarner or Marte?
Madison Bumgarner was obviously the highest-profile add, and to be honest, I still haven’t wrapped my mind around him wearing that jersey. But Starling Marte may end up being more vital to the D-backs' success. Putting him in center and atop the lineup solves several problems at once, and remember that he is coming off the best year of his career, one that put that PED suspension another year in the rearview mirror. This could be the perfect situation for him ... and he could be exactly what the D-backs were missing.

2. Can they surprise again?
The D-backs are always a little bit better than you think they are, even if they haven’t had a postseason series victory to show for it since 2007. Remember, last year they traded away Paul Goldschmidt, their best player and franchise icon ... and got three games better.

They’ve been aggressive about adding this year, and there is an undeniable good vibe with this organization right now. If Ketel Marte can add to his gains last year and that promising rotation behind Bumgarner can hold together, this is a definite Wild Card contender. It’s tough to do anything in the shadow of the Dodgers in the division, but the D-backs are building something fascinating in the desert.

Dodgers
1. How much does their insane depth come into play?
How much “depth” is going to matter in a season as short as this one is a topic of considerable debate. On the one hand, it stands to reason that you’d need less depth in a 60-game season than you would in a 162-game one; after all, that’s 102 fewer games! On the other, there are likely going to be a lot more injuries this year, and already many players electing not to play due to the coronavirus, including Dodgers starter David Price, and it’s possible more might down the line.

Either way: The Dodgers are famously stacked top to bottom, to the point that their entire bench would likely start for most other teams in baseball and their rotation goes about eight deep. The Dodgers have kept themselves flexible for every possible unforeseen circumstance. Even this particular unforeseen circumstance.

2. Can Mookie bring a title?
The trade for one season of Mookie Betts certainly looks worse now that the Dodgers know they’re only getting him for 60 games, but there’s one handy way to correct the historical record on the trade forever: Win the World Series. The Dodgers, as pointed out by my colleague Mike Petriello, have essentially locked in a playoff spot already, at 85 percent odds (via Fangraphs), but that’s not going to mean anything if they don’t win that ever-elusive World Series.

They’re probably the best baseball team on the planet, again, but none of that matters without that ring. Whatever your thoughts on the “legitimacy” of a 60-game season, know that Dodgers fans will take a World Series title however they can get it.

Giants
1. What does the future look like?
When Farhan Zaidi took over baseball operations, there were widespread suspicions that he was going to tear down the roster, start trading everything in sight and strip the whole thing down for parts. That did not end up happening, at all. This roster doesn’t look dramatically different than it did last year, and the changes that have been made have mostly come around the margins: short-term rotation adds, a Hunter Pence and Wilmer Flores here or there. Zaidi and company are clearly taking their time, and may do a D-backs-esque rebuild on the fly rather than an Astros-style implosion.

2. When do they see Joey Bart?

The top Giants prospect has wowed Giants brass and his teammates at both training camps this year, and with Buster Posey electing not to play this season, one would think Bart would be able to slot right in. But it looks like he won’t be on the roster for Opening Day, for a variety of reasons, and it is up in the air how long the Giants hold off on him. He’s the first symbol of the new Giants era, and it is very likely that the first game he plays will end up being the most memorable of this Giants season. But when will it happen? Will it happen?

Padres
1. Is it time to start showing something?
Here’s my favorite factoid about the A.J. Preller era in San Diego. Remember that first season, when he brought in Craig Kimbrel and Matt Kemp and Wil Myers, the one that was considered such a disaster that he decided to blow up everything and start over? That 2015 season, in which the Padres won 74 games, remains the best season of Preller’s tenure. Not great. Now, obviously the Padres aren’t going to win more than 74 games this season, but with all the talent on hand, they need to see some distinct improvement, and soon. Because 2015 was a long time ago.

2. Can Manny have his MVP year?
Manny Machado was good last year. He was! He hit 32 homers, he stayed healthy, he played his usual great defense ... good player, that Manny Machado. But a large part of his perceived value when the Padres gave him that 10-year, $300 million deal was that they were going to be getting the biggest part of that value when he was in his absolute prime. That absolute prime would be now. He’s 28 years old, when he should be mashing the ball and winning MVPs; he hasn’t received an MVP vote since 2016. The Padres have a lot of talent around him, but they are paying Machado to be a superstar. This would be the precise time to become one.

Rockies
1. Can it all come together?
The Rockies, a year after reaching the NL Division Series, lost 91 games last year, and usually when that happens, that leads to widespread changes and some sort of organizational reckoning. For the Rockies? It led to essentially nothing: The same roster, plus Matt Kemp and Daniel Bard, and an apparent notion that it can’t possibly be as bad as it was last year. While that might be true for that bullpen, I’m not sure it’s true anywhere else.

2. How long does the Nolan Arenado situation stay chill?
For obvious reasons, the last four months in America has not been the best time for a player who just signed a big contract to continue complaining about the roster his front office has surrounded him with. But if you remember how much of a topic this was during the Before Time of February, you can’t expect this to stay simmering for long. If the Rockies fall out of this quickly, does Arenado start throwing around his weight again? Or is he just that much closer to pulling the parachute on that impending opt-out in his contract after 2021? Or both?

One man’s NL West prediction ...

Dodgers: 39-21
D-backs: 32-28
Padres: 31-29
Giants: 28-32
Rockies: 24-36