From the moment free agency began in early November, Kyle Tucker has been the consensus No. 1 player on the market. So why is it that in the first week of January, he seems no closer to signing than he did two months ago?
Tucker’s market has been relatively slow this winter, at least compared to some top free agents in recent years. The biggest news came more than a month ago when Tucker visited the Blue Jays at their player development complex in Dunedin, Fla., though there have been few developments since then.
Two industry sources still tabbed the Blue Jays as Tucker’s likely destination, even after Toronto signed infielder Kazuma Okamoto to a four-year, $60 million deal last week. The Blue Jays’ lineup is already formidable, but adding another big left-handed bat would cement Toronto as the frontrunners in the American League.
“Once they gave Vladdy [Guerrero Jr.] the extension, they sent a message that they were going all-in to win,” a source said. “Signing [Dylan] Cease was big, but adding Tucker would finish off a pretty impressive 12 months for them.”
Signing Tucker would surely push Toronto’s payroll – which is already around $300 million – toward a gaudy number to which few teams could relate. But the Blue Jays will have more than $70 million coming off the books after 2026 when George Springer, Kevin Gausman, Shane Bieber and Daulton Varsho are slated to become free agents, bringing the payroll back down considerably.
Tucker, who turns 29 on Jan. 17, is believed to be seeking a long-term deal worth at least $300 million – possibly as much as $400 million – as he takes his first swing at free agency.
That potential price tag has limited Tucker’s market to a finite number of teams, with the Yankees, Mets, Diamondbacks, Giants and Dodgers joining the Blue Jays as clubs that have been connected to him. Yet while we’ve heard of potential interest from those teams, there hasn’t been much substantial movement by any of them to actually get a deal done.
Tucker isn’t alone; he’s one of more than a half-dozen notable free agents still on the market, joining Cody Bellinger, Alex Bregman, Bo Bichette, Ranger Suárez, Framber Valdez and Zac Gallen on the list of stars still seeking new deals.
“It’s been quieter than expected for Tucker,” a National League executive said. “That seems to be a trend among several of this offseason’s higher-tier free agents. Some of the contract forecasts we saw at the outset of the offseason have proven to be wildly optimistic. It seems the market is telling us that the massive deals of the last few years – [Shohei] Ohtani, Vlad Jr., [Yoshinobu] Yamamoto, etc. – are more outliers than anything we should anchor to.”
While Bellinger is the only other outfielder in that group, Bichette’s future could also impact Tucker’s free agency. If Toronto decides to bring back Bichette on a new contract, it would likely end the Jays’ pursuit of the four-time All-Star outfielder, taking a big bidder out of play.
The Yankees and Mets are both eager to add an impact outfield bat, but sources say the two New York teams each prefer Bellinger to Tucker. That’s not to say they won’t be in on Tucker, especially knowing that only one of them can sign Bellinger, assuming he winds up back in New York.
A reunion between the Yankees and Bellinger has felt inevitable all offseason, though it’s possible that Bellinger will wait for Tucker to sign before making his own deal, giving him further leverage. Some believe Tucker may be one of the few left-handed hitters whose swing is as tailor-made for the Bronx as Bellinger’s was during his first season in pinstripes, though Bellinger’s price tag figures to be lower and he’s already proven he can handle the New York pressure-cooker.
The Mets have a need in the outfield after trading Brandon Nimmo and Jeff McNeil, and a big hole in the lineup thanks to the loss of Pete Alonso to free agency. Tucker makes perfect sense for them, though he would join Juan Soto to form an extremely expensive outfield duo – and the Mets still need to add pitching before the season, too.
If Tucker can’t find the long-term deal he’s seeking, he could opt to sign a shorter-term, high-AAV deal like Bregman did last year when he inked a three-year, $120 million contract (with $60 million deferred) with the Red Sox, getting opt-out clauses after each season.
Should Tucker begin to consider such deals, there is a belief that the Dodgers could pounce in that scenario, adding another All-Star to their loaded lineup.
“I can’t see the Dodgers signing him to a long-term deal, but if he is open to something shorter, that’s the kind of deal [president of baseball operations] Andrew [Friedman] loves,” said an AL executive. “It feels like they’re just waiting out the market, because as good as Tucker is, it’s not like they need him.”