Welcome to the first Cardinals Inbox of 2019, where my primary task is to remind you that the season is five days old. So please don’t overreact to anything (good or bad) that you’ve seen from the Cardinals so far. Now that we have ground rules in place, onto your questions …
Without question, the initial impression hasn’t been great. Marcell Ozuna has five hits (only one for extra bases) in his first 21 at-bats and has struck out eight times while drawing one walk. All this has been out of the cleanup spot, which is where the Cardinals seem committed to sticking him until further notice. I do wonder how long that can/should last given what we’ve seen so far. And I’m not talking about batting average. Most concerning is that Ozuna is not hitting the ball with any authority. His hard-hit rate of 15.4 percent ranks in the bottom 7 percent of all National League hitters, and he has registered only one ball in play with an exit velocity over 101 mph.
With so much attention paid to Ozuna’s throwing strength this spring, perhaps the absence of many quality at-bats got a bit of a pass. The Cardinals were insistent that they looked better, his swing stronger and more stable. My eyes didn’t see the same, at least not consistently.
No one expects Ozuna to become a Gold Glove Award-winning outfielder again. Opponents have exploited his weaknesses already and that will likely continue. Yet, if he can at least be serviceable in the outfield while impacting the offense in a big way, I think the Cardinals would take the tradeoff. But if the club isn’t getting adequate contributions from either end, this could become one of the first crossroads the club reaches this season.
What makes the situation so interesting for the Cardinals is that they have a guy in José Martínez, who you can strongly argue has been one of their two best hitters since 2017, available to step in. Tyler O'Neill has more to prove (mostly on the consistency and contact side of things), though he, too, has obvious power upside and offers a defensive upgrade over Ozuna.
For so long the question seemed to be who would step in if Dexter Fowler wasn’t worthy of everyday at-bats? I think that discussion needs to be broadened to include Ozuna. Fowler hasn’t been great, but he’s been fine so far. He’s drawing walks and has an on-base percentage of .412. Fowler is also hitting the ball with more authority than we ever saw from him last year.
The Cardinals won’t panic and make wholesale changes just yet. As I already pointed out, the sample size is way too small for conclusions. But I would expect you’ll see at least one of Martinez and/or O’Neill start every time there’s a left-handed starter on the mound (beginning with Thursday’s home opener), and either could play his way into more starts with a strong April.
I know the bullpen’s implosion on Sunday skewed the early returns, but the Cardinals’ relievers have collectively had a nice start. Andrew Miller is the exception, though you have confidence that someone with his track record can self-correct quickly.
Last year, the Cardinals clearly constructed a bullpen with maximum flexibility, which allowed them to send pitchers back and forth to Triple-A and thus ensure enough fresh arms each night. This year’s group doesn’t afford the same luxury. John Gant and Mike Mayers are out of Minor League options, so you can’t send them out. Miller is a fixture, and unless Jordan Hicks and/or Alex Reyes suddenly regress, they’re not going anywhere either. That leaves only Dominic Leone and John Brebbia, both of whom have looked strong since the start of spring.
The Cardinals’ hope is that there won’t be a need to constantly replenish the ‘pen. That would mean the starters are consistently going deep into games, and the bullpen is adequately covering the rest.
Baseball’s extension season remains in full swing, with the Braves’ young star, Ronald Acuña Jr., the latest to sign a long-term deal. The Cardinals have long sought to lock in their talented young players via extensions. It’s been one way for the organization to add an element of financial certainty to its future while also buying out potential years of free agency.
Jack Flaherty and Hicks both project as players the Cardinals will pursue under this philosophy. Neither will be arbitration eligible until after 2020 season, so this seems something more likely to be broached during the offseason or next spring. That’s typically when the Cardinals prefer to navigate such negotiations anyway.