When my Hall of Fame ballot arrives each year, there are typically a first-time candidate or two that stand out as no-brainer votes.
Last year, it was Ichiro Suzuki and CC Sabathia. In 2023, Adrian Beltre and Joe Mauer fell into that category for me.
This year’s ballot didn’t have any obvious first-time candidates, presenting me with an opportunity to dig in on some players’ cases -- and to put two names back on my ballot that I had removed two years ago to make room for more worthy candidates.
Of the 12 first-time candidates, there was only one that caught my eye as a potential vote: Cole Hamels.
Hamels’ traditional statistics don’t measure up to the starting pitchers currently in the Hall: 163 wins, a 3.43 ERA, 2,698 innings pitched and a 123 ERA+. But I covered baseball during the entirety of Hamels’ career, and for more than a decade, every time he pitched, I felt like I was watching one of the best pitchers in the game.
From 2007-18, Hamels averaged more than 200 innings per season, going 147-106 with a 3.36 ERA. He was a huge part of the Phillies’ back-to-back pennant winners in 2008-09, going 4-0 with a 1.80 ERA in five starts during Philadelphia’s 2008 championship run.
As Fangraphs’ Jay Jaffe -- whose takes on the Hall of Fame are among the most respected in the business -- has pointed out, Hall of Fame starting pitchers are becoming an endangered species. In this offensive era, only three starters born since 1969 have been inducted: Pedro Martínez, Roy Halladay and Sabathia.
There should be four more inducted in the near future once Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander, Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke become eligible, but that’s still not very many. When you consider how important pitching is -- and given the salaries of the top starting pitchers, clearly the folks who run clubs believe it’s pretty important -- starters should have more representation in the Hall, even as the position becomes somewhat marginalized by the bullpen revolution that has taken over the game in recent years.
Hamels may not have been as dominant as those three, but for me, you don’t have to be the best pitcher of your generation to make the Hall of Fame. You have to be one of the best pitchers of your generation, and Hamels certainly fits into that category.
My guess is that Hamels doesn’t come anywhere close to being elected in his first attempt, but I firmly believe he should be given more time on the ballot for voters to consider his case.
I’m a “Big Hall” guy. In my first nine years as a voter, I have used all 10 spots eight times, voting for nine players in the other year. Overall, I have voted for 20 players who have been elected to the Hall, including six in the past two years alone. Some voters believe that only the top one percent of the top one percent belong in Cooperstown, but having covered baseball for the past quarter century, I believe there’s a place in the Hall for players that were consistently excellent even if they were never the best player in the game.
Some of the votes I have cast have been for players that some (including myself) consider borderline, but I have felt they were good enough to stay on the ballot to be considered again in the future.
We have seen exceptional players such as Jim Edmonds, Carlos Delgado, Kenny Lofton and Jorge Posada fall off the ballot after one appearance; I don’t know if any of them would have eventually gotten in, but they all deserved more than one look, especially with the performance-enhancing-drug issue leading to some spectacularly crowded ballots.
Mike Mussina -- whose name I checked every year until he was elected in 2019 -- received only 20.3 percent of the vote in his first try. He didn’t win any more games during his first five years on the ballot, yet he was elected in 2019 on his sixth try. Hamels may or may not ultimately get to the 75 percent threshold, but he was good enough to earn the opportunity to return to the ballot next year, so I checked his name on this year’s ballot.
Hamels was the first new name I added to my ballot this year, so let’s take a look at the rest of the names I checked off:
Back on my ballot after a two-year absence:
Throughout my time as a voter, my rule has generally been that if I vote for a player once, he stays on my ballot as long as he is eligible.
There have been exceptions. Two years ago, I removed both Alex Rodriguez and Manny Ramirez after voting for both players annually, but it had nothing to do with me changing my mind about their candidacies and how they related to their involvement with performance-enhancing drugs, as I have voted for a number of players with PED-related situations.
The introduction of Beltre, Mauer, Ichiro and Sabathia pushed A-Rod and Manny off my ballot, as I needed the spots to vote for those first-timers. I also felt that based on their annual vote totals, the votes for A-Rod and Manny were somewhat wasted, as they weren’t gaining enough traction to believe either would be elected.
The desire to see players such as Mark Buehrle and Jimmy Rollins get a longer look also played into that decision, as I had considered voting for both players in previous years but didn’t have room for them on my ballot (the Hall of Fame limits BBWAA voters to 10 spots).
I wrote at the time that if either A-Rod or Manny were showing an improvement in support, I would consider adding them back on to my ballot. A-Rod received 37.1 percent last year, his highest total in four tries, while Manny received 34.3 percent, also the most he had gotten in nine years on the ballot.
With three players on my ballot from last year getting elected (Ichiro, Sabathia and Billy Wagner), I had three open spots this year. Hamels filled one of them, and with two others available, I decided to add A-Rod and Manny back on, especially with this being Manny’s 10th and final year of eligibility.
Returning players
Carlos Beltrán, Mark Buehrle, Andruw Jones, Dustin Pedroia, Andy Pettitte, Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley
Beltrán: He won the 1999 American League Rookie of the Year award, made nine All-Star teams, won three Gold Gloves and posted an .837 OPS with 435 home runs, 1,587 RBIs, 312 stolen bases and 2,725 hits, playing most of his career with the Royals and Mets. His 86.4% stolen base success rate is the best in history for players with at least 200 attempts, and his 70.1 bWAR ranks eighth among all center fielders in history. I think he would have been elected by now if not for his role in the Astros’ sign-stealing scandal, but after receiving 70.3 percent of the vote last year, I’m hoping this is the year he finally gets the well-deserved call.
Buehrle: Buehrle’s career was very similar to Pettitte’s, with the biggest difference being Pettitte’s postseason success. Buehrle compiled a 60.0 bWAR (Pettitte’s was 60.2) and had a 214-160 record with a 3.81 ERA over 3,283 1/3 innings in 518 games (493 starts). He did reach the postseason three times, helping the White Sox break their 88-year championship drought in 2005, also earning five All-Star selections. He topped the 200-inning mark in each season between 2001-2014, a remarkable display of consistency that simply isn’t seen anymore.
Jones: Jones’ performance from 1997-2006 was simply dominant. He hit 337 home runs with 1,010 RBIs and an .852 OPS, won nine Gold Gloves (adding a 10th in 2007), earned five All-Star selections and helped the Braves reach two World Series. Jones had 1,556 hits through his age-29 season (2006), and appeared to be on a sure-fire Hall of Fame track, but his performance fell off after he left the Braves, playing the final five years of his career for four different teams. He retired at age 35, but still finished his career with 434 home runs, 1,289 RBIs and a 62.7 bWAR, doing the bulk of that damage during his incredible prime. Jones received 66.2 percent of the vote last year, and with only two years of eligibility remaining, he has a solid chance to get to the magical 75 percent mark.
Pedroia: A highly-decorated player who won AL Rookie of the Year in 2007, AL Most Valuable Player in 2008, four All-Star selections, four Gold Gloves and two World Series rings. Had a 52.5 bWAR during his first 11 seasons before a Manny Machado slide in 2017 essentially ended Pedroia’s career at age 33. He played only nine games after 2017, derailing what looked to be a Hall of Fame track. Pedroia’s bWAR per 162 games of 5.6 is a half-win higher than the average Hall of Fame second baseman, and during his absolute peak, Pedroia led all second baseman with a 34.8 bWAR between 2008-13, averaging a 5.8 bWAR during that stretch.
Pettitte: The left-hander went 256-153, finishing more than 100 games over .500 for his career. The only pitchers to accomplish that and not get into the Hall are Pettitte and Roger Clemens, whose PED suspicion kept him from being elected despite his status as one of the best pitchers in history. Pettitte is also connected to PEDs, having admitted to briefly using HGH to help him return from an injury. Like Hamels, Pettitte was never the best pitcher in his league, yet he finished in the top six in Cy Young Award voting five times during his career. He was also a postseason staple during the Yankees dynasty, playing a key role in five World Series titles and eight league pennants (seven with the Yankees, one with the Astros). He holds the postseason records for starts, wins and innings pitched, winning eight of 12 potential postseason series clinchers for the Yankees -- including all three in 2009.
Rollins: Rollins’ case is even better than Pedroia’s, in my opinion. Their trophy cases look similar, as Rollins won the 2007 NL MVP Award and four Gold Gloves, earned three All-Star selections and helped guide the Phillies to back-to-back World Series appearances, winning a ring in 2008. But Rollins’ career numbers are superior to Pedroia’s; he’s the only shortstop in history to compile more than 2,400 hits, 200 home runs, 400 stolen bases and 800 extra-base hits, and he retired as the Phillies’ all-time hits leader.
Utley: He doesn’t have the round-number milestones that many voters look for, but Utley was consistently one of the best second basemen in the game throughout his career. He hit 259 home runs with 1,025 RBIs, a career .275/.358/.465 slash line (.823 OPS), 1,885 hits and a 64.6 bWAR. He was a key cog on some really good Phillies teams, including the 2008 World Series championship club and the pennant-winning 2009 team. During Utley’s seven-year peak between 2005-11, he hit 173 home runs with 616 RBIs, 104 stolen bases, an .896 OPS, a 131 OPS+ and 49.3 bWAR. I felt like I was watching a Hall of Fame player, so he gets my vote.