Here’s a proven fact: Brodie Van Wagenen is not afraid to take risks. The question is what sort of leap he intends to make next.
Considering that the time until the July 31 Trade Deadline can be better measured in hours than days at this point, it’s little surprise that rumors remain afire since the Mets’ acquisition of Marcus Stroman. New York, which is making a late run up the National League standings, can still move in any number of directions prior to the deadline. While we wait to see what happens, here’s a fresh batch of Inbox questions:
Does it actually make sense to trade Noah Syndergaard? His contract and talent seem to be better than anything we’d be getting back.
-- @mattmackinnnnnn via Twitter
That’s the rub, isn’t it? Given how many conversations the Mets have had with teams about Syndergaard over the past eight months, it’s obvious they’d like to deal him for a monster return. Even in a down year, Syndergaard has been a pretty good pitcher, with underlying statistics -- his 3.64 FIP, for example -- that suggest he’s been better than the back of his baseball card. While trading Syndergaard as part of a full-scale rebuild would make sense, the Mets have made it clear that they want to compete for the postseason in 2020, and they backed that up Sunday with their acquisition of Stroman. That strategy wouldn’t really jibe with jettisoning Syndergaard, who is under contractual control through 2021.
An exception would be if the Mets can find a team willing to give them a top pitching prospect in (or close to) the Majors, plus one or two other tantalizing pieces. In other words, an overpay. There is a price point for every player on the roster and Syndergaard is no exception.
So to answer your question, does it make sense to trade him? It can, in the right context. There’s just skepticism around the industry that anyone will offer the Mets the type of package necessary for them to strike, leading many to take a believe-it-when-they-see-it approach. The Mets’ most likely Trade Deadline outcome has always been to deal as many of their impending free agents -- Zack Wheeler, Jason Vargas and Todd Frazier -- as possible, while leaving everything else intact. Even after their acquisition of Stroman, that tack still seems most probable.
What’s the latest on Vargas and Frazier? I know with the Syndergaard rumors they have kind of been pushed to the side, but will they get traded? I would especially like Frazier to be moved to allow for J.D. Davis to get more at-bats.
-- @Shmeag_5 via Twitter
Executives around the game have long believed Vargas and Frazier would go down to the wire, perhaps drawing interest after clubs shift their focus from Stroman, Syndergaard and the market’s other biggest fish. The Mets will probably have opportunities to trade both players on Wednesday, though they may not receive much more than salary relief in return. Given their sudden winning streak, they could conclude that hanging onto Vargas and Frazier is the more productive course of action. As well as Davis has been hitting, Frazier is the superior glove at third base.
What are the chances Seth Lugo gets a chance to start after the deadline?
-- @BradyPSnyder via Twitter
With Stroman in house, it’s unlikely the Mets will have more than one rotation opening, which almost has to go to Walker Lockett. The Mets have been intrigued all season by what Lockett can do, and he finally showed it with a nice five-inning outing earlier this month in San Francisco. The team is going to want to take a longer look at the rookie, which means starting him every fifth day down the stretch.
That likely leaves Lugo in the bullpen no matter how many pitchers are traded, though I’m with you -- it would be nice for the Mets to give him another chance as a starter. Lugo has made no secret over the years that he’d like to start, and this is a no-lose opportunity for the team to grant him his wish. It’s just difficult to see it happening given how adamant Mets officials have been that they prefer Lugo in the bullpen. They think his fastball plays up there, and believe he’s less likely to suffer injury as a reliever. Remember, Lugo is still pitching with a partially torn UCL in his right elbow.
Are the Mets considering moving Dominic Smith? While he’s played an OK left field, I think the Mets are better served with Michael Conforto out there, and Smith’s value (not 100% sure) would be high now even though he just hit the injured list. Some team, I would think, could use a left-handed first baseman.
-- @FrankPeteani via Twitter
Unfortunately for the Mets, the stress reaction in Smith’s left foot torched his short-term trade value. He’ll be out weeks at a minimum, making him an unlikely buy for a team in a pennant race.
Longer-term, I think the Mets are going to have little choice but to consider dealing Smith. He’s blocked at first base by Pete Alonso for years to come, and certainly profiles better at first than in left field. Smith’s fine offensive season has indeed restored a chunk of his trade value, so I suspect you’ll see his name in all sorts of rumors over the offseason -- just not this week.
If you had to name the 5-8 untouchable players in trade talks, who would they be?
-- @HarryHubbard32 via Twitter
The simple answer is there aren’t 5-8 untouchable players in the organization right now. Realistically, there isn’t even one. Every player has his price.
However, the Mets are trying to build things around a core of Alonso, Jeff McNeil and Jacob deGrom, so it would be shocking to see any of those three players put on different uniforms anytime soon. Robinson Cano isn’t going anywhere thanks to a contract that is essentially untradeable. I’ll also throw in Ronny Mauricio, the Mets’ top-ranked prospect, according to MLB Pipeline. Considering the state of their farm system after the Stroman deal, the Mets can ill afford to part with one of the few blue-chippers they have left.
Will we see Jed Lowrie before the 2020 election?
-- @jvr625 via Twitter
Let’s see what the rest of this season brings. Given how vague the Mets have been about Lowrie’s “left-side” issues, and how little he has apparently progressed, it’s tough to predict a Lowrie comeback this year. But stranger things have happened, and the Mets would love to see at least some return on their $20 million investment. If Lowrie doesn’t play in 2019, he’ll enter Spring Training, at age 35, not having seen a big league pitch in a year and a half.