This story was excerpted from Anthony DiComo's Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.
For the Mets, 162 games are about to be funneled down into three. The Mets and Padres will open the postseason with a best-of-three Wild Card Series beginning Friday night at Citi Field.
To preview it, I caught up with MLB.com Padres beat writer A.J. Cassavell, who does a fantastic job covering the Mets’ Wild Card opponent. Here’s our conversation:
DiComo: I’ll start with the pitching. No one wants to face the Mets in a short series with Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer looming, but the Padres do appear uniquely positioned to match New York’s aces with Yu Darvish, Blake Snell and Joe Musgrove. What sort of form are those guys in heading into the Wild Card round?
Cassavell: All three are pitching well, to varying degrees. Darvish was the NL Pitcher of the Month in September and has a knack for working deep into his starts. (He’s now gone 23 straight outings of at least six innings, and his blend of 11 different pitches tends to limit the times-through-the-order penalty with him.) I think Snell has actually been more dominant but with a bit less consistency and length to his starts. He posted a 2.17 second-half ERA. Musgrove is the only one of the three who was shaky in the second half, but he finished the year with scoreless ball in three of his last four starts. The Padres know they’ve got a challenge with all those Mets aces. But they like their own guys, too.
DiComo: Hitting-wise, I think we all know about Manny Machado and Juan Soto. Is there anyone else in the Padres' lineup that should scare the Mets?
Cassavell: Those are the guys. The Padres’ lack of lineup depth has been their biggest issue, really, all season long. One guy I’d keep an eye on is Jurickson Profar. He’s their leadoff man, and when he’s going right, he’s an absolute pest -- working counts, finding ways aboard. If Profar is on base, you can’t be quite as careful with Soto and Machado.
DiComo: Josh Hader looked like a mess after the Padres acquired him at the deadline, but he hasn’t allowed an earned run for nine straight appearances. Is he fully back? And is he still capable of delivering multi-inning outings like we’ve seen from him in postseasons past?
Cassavell: I think he might be Josh Hader again. Now, that brutal month or two is still fresh in my mind, so I say that somewhat hesitantly. But he’s been throwing his fastball for strikes -- and missing bats with it. And that’s really all it takes to set up his slider/changeup. BUT... The Padres seem very hesitant to use Hader in multiple innings. (They haven’t done so since his arrival, and Hader hasn’t done so since the 2020 postseason.) That’s troubling for San Diego, because the middle innings remain a bit of a question mark.
DiComo: Are there any other storylines or x-factors you think could play a significant role in this series?
Cassavell: I’ll get in the weeds a little bit with a very specific Padres concern of mine: I have no idea what they’re going to do in center field against three right-handed Mets pitchers. They’ve got the lefty-hitting Trent Grisham, a Gold Glove winner who has been dreadful at the plate. They’ve got José Azocar, also excellent defensively, but poor against right-handed pitching. And they’ve got Wil Myers, whose defense isn’t center-field caliber but whose bat is clearly better than the Padres’ two true center fielders. On top of that, the Padres' bench is extremely thin and might not feature any lefty hitters. I suspect they’ll start Grisham, hoping he’ll make a defensive play or two that could change the course of a low-scoring series. But keep an eye on how they maneuver that spot in the lineup late in games.
DiComo: Last question -- do you think the Padres have what it takes to upset the Mets in this series?
Cassavell: I think the Mets deserve to be favored, because they’ve got those two aces, and they’ll be playing before what I’m sure will be an electric Citi Field crowd. But it’s a three-game series, and the Padres have some pretty darn good pitchers going, too. Their offense is a concern. But a few big swings from Manny Machado and Juan Soto might be all they need.