How Conforto's return could impact Giants' 2024 outfield

November 7th, 2023

This story was excerpted from Maria Guardado’s Giants Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

The Giants got clarity on several option decisions on Monday that will inevitably impact their approach to this offseason.

Left-hander Sean Manaea is a free agent after opting out of the final year of his two-year deal with the Giants. Outfielder and right-hander Ross Stripling, on the other hand, will be back after declining the opportunity to re-enter the open market this winter. They’ll be owed $18 million and $12.5 million, respectively, in 2024.

The Giants also picked up Alex Cobb’s $10 million club option, though the veteran right-hander is expected to be out until at least May 2024 after undergoing left hip surgery last month.

Conforto’s decision had been the trickiest to gauge heading into Monday’s deadline, as he batted .239 with 15 homers and a career-low .718 OPS after returning from the right shoulder surgery that forced him to sit out the entire 2022 campaign.

While Conforto managed to avoid shoulder trouble this past season, he battled hamstring issues that limited him to 125 games and caused him to miss three weeks down the stretch. The 30-year-old also struggled to consistently tap into the elite power he flashed earlier in his career with the Mets, as he didn’t homer after Aug. 13 and finished with a 99 OPS+ that put him a tick below league average.

Even with a thin class of free agent hitters, Conforto ultimately elected to stay in San Francisco and try to put together a stronger platform season next year. His return will further crowd the Giants’ outfield mix, which is already projected to feature holdovers like Mitch Haniger, Mike Yastrzemski, Austin Slater, Luis Matos, Tyler Fitzgerald and Heliot Ramos.

Giants outfielders tied for 25th in the Majors with a combined 3.5 Wins Above Replacement in 2023, according to FanGraphs, and ranked 28th with -13 Outs Above Average, so they’re unlikely to run the same group back, particularly given their desire to upgrade their defense and athleticism this winter.

With former Dodger/Cub Cody Bellinger and Korean star Jung Hoo Lee looming as potential free agent fits, it wouldn’t be a surprise if the Giants decide to deal from their current crop of outfielders to clear some spots for newcomers.

The Giants signed Haniger to a three-year, $43.5 million deal to be an everyday player last offseason, but the 32-year-old slugger appeared in only 61 games due to injuries, including a right forearm fracture that sidelined him for more than two months. He ended up batting .209 with a .631 OPS, both of which ranked as the worst marks of his career.

Haniger could be a candidate to slot into the designated-hitter spot now that Joc Pederson is a free agent, but he’ll need to regain the form he showed in 2021, when he blasted a career-high 39 homers for the Mariners.

Yastrzemski and Slater are among the Giants’ arbitration-eligible players this winter and are forecasted to make $7.3 million and $3.6 million in 2024, respectively, according to MLB Trade Rumors. San Francisco seemed likely to tender contracts to the duo at the beginning of the offseason, but those decisions could become more complicated now that Conforto is back in the fold.

Yastrzemski, 33, batted .233 with a .775 OPS and 15 home runs this past season, though he played in only 106 games after straining his left hamstring on three separate occasions. Slater, 30, remained an effective platoon bat in 2023, but he also missed time with hamstring issues and ultimately hit .270 with a .748 OPS and five homers over 89 games.