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There's no shortage of quality betting options on DraftKings Sportsbook Tuesday, with 16 games on the slate.
Follow along on Twitter (@Nick_Friar) for updates.
Braves vs. Pirates
The wager: Michael Harris II over 1.5 total bases and Braves over 1.5 runs
Line: +160 (Bet $100 to win $160)
Harris has had a nice power surge of late, logging an extra-base hit in four of the last five games. He’s in a spot to maintain that momentum with a right-hander taking the mound for Pittsburgh Tuesday. Over his last 60 plate appearances against right-handed pitching, Harris has a .291 ISO and 42.9% hard-contact rate.
More importantly, the aforementioned right-hander is JT Brubaker, who has struggled with left-handed hitters throughout his three-year MLB career. Over his last five starts, lefties have a 25% line-drive rate, 36.1% fly-ball rate and 50% hard-contact rate against Brubaker.
Backing the Tigers may feel strange, especially against a starter like Rodón, but a few numbers indicate the left-hander isn’t in for a big strikeout day.
Rodón has gone under this number in half of his 2022 starts. Over 13 road starts, he’s gone under this number seven times. More importantly, last time he saw the Tigers, he only logged four K's.
While that might seem like an anomaly, Rodón only punched out three Oakland hitters in his first start of August. Additionally, Detroit doesn’t strike out much against left-handed pitching. On the year, the Tigers have just a 22.2% strikeout rate against lefties. At home, that number shrinks down to 21%.
There’s no question Dunning isn’t as good on the road as he is at home. But, the Texas right-hander generates a lot of grounders no matter where he’s pitching. He’s got a 53.3% ground-ball rate on the road this season, which will play large at Coors Field.
More importantly, the Rockies have a 51.2% ground-ball rate against right-handed pitching since the All-Star break. At home during that same span, their ground-ball rate balloons up to 55%. This puts Dunning in a spot to log fewer than four earned runs for the ninth time in what will be his 12th road start of the season.
Since the Trade Deadline, Seattle ranks 10th in ISO against right-handed pitching, thanks in part to a 46% fly-ball rate. That’s helped boost the M's season-long runs-per-game average up to 4.16. Of course, the Mariners need to finish the night north of that number in order for this to hit, but that’s where Washington’s pitchers come in.
Erick Fedde is making his first MLB start since July 24 after battling right shoulder inflammation. He made 19 starts before the injury, and opponents scored five-plus runs in 10 of those games. Now, he’ll be on some sort of pitch count, so the Mariners could see Washington’s bullpen very early in this one. That’s only going to work in this play’s favor because the Nationals have a 4.30 bullpen FIP and 4.17 bullpen ERA.
Two studs are taking the mound in L.A. on Tuesday, which is why the game total is at minuscule seven runs. Although these two bullpens could very well help the game total’s under hit, shrinking things down to the seventh inning gives us a chance at this exclusively being a bet on Tony Gonsolin and Corbin Burnes.
This will be Gonsolin’s 11th home start of 2022. In 10 of those outings, he’s held opponents to two or fewer runs. He only failed to work through at least six innings in three of those 10 outings. Burnes will be making his 12th start away from Milwaukee this season, and that typically bodes well for the Brewers. He’s only given up more than two runs in two of his 2022 road starts, and he’s only failed to work through at least six frames twice as the visiting starting pitcher.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
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