The 10 biggest offseason surprises

February 16th, 2021

For all the uncertainty teams faced in this unusual Hot Stove season, a good deal of it has gone according to plan.

Under new ownership, the Mets added a signature star in Francisco Lindor, who was destined to be dealt by Cleveland. The Blue Jays got a big free agent (George Springer). The Yankees re-upped with DJ LeMahieu, the Phillies with J.T. Realmuto, the Braves with Marcell Ozuna, etc.

And while it sure seemed Trevor Bauer was headed for the Mets until the last possible minute and the Dodgers didn’t necessarily need to upgrade their rotation any further, no one should be surprised a juggernaut team that has shown an interest in high-dollar, short-term deals with other stars was able to pull one off with a local product who was looking for exactly that.

But the following 10 developments were definitely more difficult to forecast. With Spring Training about to start, here are the 10 most surprising moves from the Stove for those in need of a refresher.

1. The Rockies really did trade .

That the Rockies would be open to dealing their franchise face so soon after he signed a mega-extension with them was, sadly, well established. And the Cardinals were long a rumored fit on that front. But there were more than the average number of hurdles to a deal actually getting done, including Arenado’s no-trade clause, his opt-out after 2021, his big salary in the midst of the pandemic and his uncharacteristic output (and injury) in 2020.

Clearly, though, the Rox made some concessions to get this deal with St. Louis over the finish line, not the least of which is covering all of Arenado’s 2021 salary ($15 million up front and another $20 million deferred).

2. The White Sox hired Tony La Russa.

Rick Renteria guided the South Siders to their first postseason berth since 2008, but his tactical moves had come under great scrutiny. As cutthroat as the culture in professional sports can be, his ousting was not a major surprise (though it did lead to some awkwardness when he was named an American League Manager of the Year finalist).

More remarkable was Renteria’s replacement, with the Sox dipping deep into their past to pull out a Hall of Famer (literal, not projected) who hasn’t managed since 2011. At 76, La Russa is old enough to be the grandfather of the majority of players in his regular lineup. The irony is that when the Sox first installed La Russa in this role, in 1979, he was the youngest skipper in the sport.

3. and were both dealt -- to the same team, no less.

We are, by now, pretty well familiar with the matter-of-fact manner in which the Rays deal their star players as their expenses rise. But the Snell swap -- coming so soon after he had played such a prominent role in their run to the World Series (and had, um, been taken out of Game 6) -- was not something assumed at the start of the offseason. Nor was it assumed that the Cubs would deal Darvish on the heels of their National League Central title and his second-place finish in the NL Cy Young voting.

Meanwhile, though the Padres are always down to deal, you would have had a hard time predicting they would have both the motivation and the means to land both of these accomplished arms, especially without surrendering the upper tier of a farm system that still has four players on MLB Pipeline’s Top 100 Prospects list.

And yet, these deals happened ... within 24 hours of each other!

4. is still a Cub (at least for now).

The Cubs dealt Darvish and non-tendered Kyle Schwarber, but they didn’t sever ties (or, at the very least, have not yet severed ties) with the guy who was so widely assumed to be on the trading block prior to his free-agent walk year. Heck, a lot of us thought Bryant was going to be dealt before 2020, let alone before 2021.

Bryant, of course, didn’t pad his own trade value with a woeful 2020, in which he was worth just 0.4 wins above replacement per Baseball Reference. But the third-base market was light on help beyond Justin Turner, the Arenado situation was made complicated by the factors mentioned earlier, and the Cubs were known to be cutting costs. Some people in the industry even wondered if the North Siders might non-tender Bryant in light of how much he was due to make in his final arbitration round (he wound up signing for $19.5 million). Yet last we checked, Bryant still has a locker with his name on it at Sloan Park in Mesa, Ariz.

5. The Yankees and Red Sox made a trade.

And for a significant player, no less, with reliever (along with prospect Frank German) going to Boston in exchange for a player to be named later. These rivals had matched up on a trade only one other time this century, and that was a 2014 Trade Deadline deal that sent Stephen Drew to New York for Kelly Johnson.

The last time they made a deal prior to the start of a season? Way back in 1986, when the Yanks traded Don Baylor to Boston for Mike Easler.

Ottavino was 4 months old at the time.

6. ’s deal with the Nationals.

Nobody illustrates the unusual nature of this Hot Stove season better than Hand. He’s been one of baseball’s best relievers over the last five seasons, and he had an MLB-best 16 saves in 2020. But Cleveland decided to decline his $10 million option for 2021 and made him available on waivers to any team willing to exercise that option. With so many teams facing uncertainty with their finances and Hand’s peripheral numbers looking iffy, every one of the other 29 teams -- including, notably, the Nationals -- turned down that opportunity.

But then Hand wound up signing with Washington two months later ... for $10.5 million. And he received a $1 million buyout from the Tribe. So you could argue that nobody had a better winter than Brad Hand.

7. One of the winter’s most aggressive teams? The Royals.

The Royals haven’t finished above .500 since their 2015 World Series win, they lost 103 games and had a minus-178 run differential in the last full season, they have multiple prospects on MLB Pipeline's Top 100 list but most are not set to debut in 2021, and their new owner spent a billion dollars on the club just prior to a global pandemic. So if their offseason activity had revolved around fringe players and Minor League deals, it would have surprised absolutely no one.

But the Royals did make an earnest attempt to get better, via Carlos Santana, Mike Minor, Andrew Benintendi, Michael A. Taylor and others. It might not be enough to actually contend, but, honestly, we’ve become so accustomed to teams plotting a patient course in rebuild projects that the Royals’ approach to the winter is sort of startling and definitely refreshing.

8. received the qualifying offer.

In light of the unusual financial circumstances coming out of the shortened season, it was expected that only the most highly coveted of free agents eligible for the $18.9 million qualifying offer would receive one. While the 30-year-old Gausman had a strong 2020 with the Giants (3.62 ERA, 118 ERA+), he was not widely seen as a top-tier starter in this market. But San Francisco felt comfortable enough with Gausman to take this calculated gamble.

Less surprising? Gausman accepted the $18.9 million.

9. announced his own free-agent destination on Twitter.

First, Trevor Bauer did it. That was no surprise because, well, it’s Trevor Bauer. But the Dodgers’ new addition might have sparked something, because when Turner re-signed with the club about a week later, he also took the unusual step of serving as his own personal PR person. Veteran second baseman Jason Kipnis then announced his Minor League deal with the Braves via Twitter on Monday.

Is this officially the new way ballplayer deals are disclosed? Guess we’ll keep refreshing those social media feeds to find out.

10. received an NL MVP vote.

Not a transaction but still a shock. We wouldn’t ordinarily advocate for relievers with a 3.92 ERA to get award attention. But the mishap that landed Tepera at No. 18 overall in the vote was an oddly appropriate accompaniment to the strangest baseball season any of us had ever seen.

Come to think of it, why didn’t Tepera get Cy Young support?