Daily Fantasy: J.D. or Trout? Alonso or Jazz?

April 22nd, 2021

As part of a new daily feature at MLB.com, we'll be breaking down every matchup on the schedule to help give fantasy players an edge, whether it's in daily contests or season-long leagues. The "Fantasy Daily Dish" will break down every starting pitcher on the slate, as well as all of the notable hitters in that particular game. We'll dive into all the specifics of a given matchup looking for everything from batters who thrive against certain pitch types to hot/cold streaks to platoon splits -- and everything in between.

With a small slate of games on tap for Thursday, fantasy players will need to find some value picks to make their lineups stand out. Despite only eight games on the schedule, there are plenty of players worth taking a closer look at -- both on the mound and at the plate.

Here's a full breakdown of every game:

D-backs (Widener) at Reds (Hoffman), 12:35 p.m. ET

D-backs SP: Taylor Widener, RHP
Key stat(s): Throws four-seamer 63.6% of the time
2021 stats: 1-0, 1.59 ERA, 15.7 K%

Breakdown: Widener has impressed in his move to the rotation this season, turning in a pair of scoreless outings in his first three career starts. That said, he's recorded only 11 strikeouts in 17 innings and he's allowing a hard-hit percentage of 47.2% -- up from 37.3% as a reliever last season. Those numbers might help explain why his eERA sits at 4.92. Either way, opposing hitters can expect a steady diet of fastballs, as he threw the pitch 64.0% of the time last year out of the bullpen, and that's continued this season as a starter (63.6%).

Notable Reds hitters

Nick Castellanos: 6-for-33 (.182) with one home run over last eight games after hitting .429 with four homers in first seven.

Joey Votto: 92.6 mph average exit velocity (up from 87.4 mph last season) and 49% hard-hit rate (35.7% last season); ranks in 95th percentile in xBA and xSLG.

Reds SP: Jeff Hoffman, RHP
Key stat(s): Opponents have .314 career average vs. his four-seam fastball
2021 stats: 2-1, 2.93 ERA, 18.8 K%

Breakdown: Hoffman has pitched well through three starts, thanks in part to an improved four-seamer. Opponents are still hitting .256 (10-for-39) against the pitch, but that's a sizable upgrade from previous seasons. Opposing batters hit .356 with a .627 SLG vs. Hoffman's four-seamer in 2020, and .323 with a .741 SLG against the offering in '19. While those numbers have been better in 2021, he still has a .324 xBA and .607 XSLG against his fastball this season.

Notable D-backs hitters

David Peralta: .507 career slugging percentage (and .865 OPS) vs. right-handed pitchers (.366 SLG, .672 OPS vs. LHP).

Eduardo Escobar: 14-for-91 (.154) with 13 strikeouts vs. four-seam fastballs since start of last season.

Carson Kelly: Three homers and seven RBIs in last six games; .522 wOBA ranks fourth behind in MLB behind Byron Buxton, Ronald Acuña Jr. and Mike Trout.

Pirates (Brubaker) at Tigers (Ureña), 1:10 p.m. ET

Pirates SP: JT Brubaker, RHP
Key stat(s): Opponents are 1-for-23 (.043) vs. his fastball
2021 stats: 2-0, 1.76 ERA, 27.3 K%

Breakdown: Brubaker has been dominant through three starts this season, thanks in large part to his two fastballs. Opponents are 1-for-17 (.059) against his sinker and 0-for-6 against his four-seamer, with nine combined strikeouts. They're also 0-for-6 against his curveball. The one pitch opponents have been able to jump on is his slider (.318 opponents' BA), which was one of his best pitches last season (.204 opponents' BA).

Notable Tigers hitters

Akil Baddoo: 6-for-15 (.400) with three homers vs. fastballs.

Jeimer Candelario: Hitting a combined .371 with a .556 slugging percentage vs. four-seam fastballs and sinkers since start of last season.

Wilson Ramos: Hitting a combined .198 with 18 strikeouts and a .321 slugging percentage against four-seamers and sinkers since start of last season.

Tigers SP: José Ureña, RHP
Key stat(s): 25 baserunners in 14 2/3 IP
2021 stats: 0-3, 5.52 ERA, 25.4 K%

Breakdown: Ureña has struggled at times throughout his career with his command, particularly the last two seasons. After walking a career-high 12.5% of the batters he faced in 2020, Ureña has issued free passes to 16.4% of hitters through three starts this year. He's allowed 14 hits and walked an AL-most 11 batters in just 14 2/3 innings. Ureña has a plus slider and a fastball that reaches 97 mph, but the key has always been his ability to control it all.

Notable Pirates hitters

Gregory Polanco: 4.5 pitches per plate appearance (second-most in NL).

Colin Moran: .792 OPS, 3.3 career HR% vs. right-handed pitchers (.639 OPS, 1.8 HR% vs. LHP)

Yankees (Germán) at Indians (Civale), 6:10 p.m. ET

Yankees SP: Domingo Germán, RHP
Key stat(s): Allowing a .353 BA and .735 SLG
2021 stats: 0-2, 9.00 ERA, 19.4 K%

Breakdown: Germán was sent to the Yankees' alternate training site after permitting seven runs off 12 hits over just seven innings of work in two starts. Opposing hitters are 6-for-13 (.462) with three extra-base hits (including two homers) against his fastballs, while also going 4-for-10 with a pair of home runs against his offspeed stuff.

Notable Indians hitters

José Ramírez: 4-for-36 (.111) with zero multi-hit games over his last 10 games after starting 9-for-24 (.375) with three multi-hit efforts in first six games this season.

Jordan Luplow: Three homers in last four games (leads team with five home runs overall).

Indians SP: Aaron Civale, RHP
Key stat(s): 29.6% four-seam fastball usage (2.5% last season)
2021 stats: 3-0, 2.18 ERA, 21.9 K%

Breakdown: Despite having plenty of success in his first two seasons in the big leagues, Civale overhauled nearly everything about his approach this offseason. Armed with a new delivery and a new pitch mix, he's allowed only 10 hits over 20 2/3 innings while going 3-0 with a 2.18 ERA. The four-seam fastball -- a pitch he used sparingly last year -- has become his most-used pitch, while he's turned his changeup into a split-changeup -- an offering that opponents are just 2-for-16 against. The four-seamer has also been working, with batters going just 3-for-20 (.150), though two of the hits are home runs.

Notable Yankees hitters

Aaron Judge: 98.2 mph average exit velocity (leads MLB).

Giancarlo Stanton: 3-for-32 (.094) with 15 K's in last nine games; still responsible for five of the 11 hardest-hit balls this season.

Gary Sánchez: 1-for-18 (.067) with seven K's and one RBI over last six games after hitting .296 with a pair of homers in first eight.

Mariners (Dunn) at Red Sox (Pivetta), 7:10 p.m. ET

Mariners SP: Justin Dunn, RHP
Key stat(s): Opponents are 0-for-18 with six K's vs. his breaking ball
2021 stats: 1-0, 3.72 ERA, 21.4 K%

Breakdown: Dunn has allowed only three hits over 9 2/3 innings this season. Of course, he has issued 10 walks in that span -- eight of which came in his 2021 debut against thte White Sox. He cleaned up his control a bit in his April 15 outings against the Orioles, holding them to one run off two hits and two walks over five frames. Opposing hitters are 0-for-10 vs. his slider and 0-for-8 vs. his curveball, though neither have induced a particularly high whiff rate (21.2% combined whiff rate).

Notable Red Sox hitters

Rafael Devers: Nine barrels this season (tied for third in MLB behind only Acuña and Trout).

J.D. Martinez: Hitting .373 with six homers and an MLB-leading 20 RBIs in 17 games.

Xander Bogaerts: Hitting .203 with 20 strikeouts and a .365 slugging percentage vs. breaking balls since start of last season. Has reached base safely in 13 of last 14 games; hitting .385 with a 1.013 OPS overall this season.

Red Sox SP: Nick Pivetta, RHP
Key stat(s): 11 walks in 14 1/3 IP
2021 stats: 2-0, 3.68 ERA, 21.5 K%

Breakdown: Pivetta had a rocky 2020 season, making just three appearances out of the Phillies' bullpen before being traded to Boston, where he made two starts down the stretch. Through the uncertainty of his role and the season, in general, Pivetta's fastball averaged only 92.8 mph -- down from 94.6 mph in 2019 and 94.8 mph in '18. The velocity has returned this season (94.7 mph), though his control has been a bit erratic, resulting in at least three walks in each of his first three outings, including four over just 3 2/3 innings his last time out.

Notable Mariners hitters

Kyle Lewis: Made season debut Tuesday after missing first 17 games with right knee injury.

Dylan Moore: 4.4 pitches per plate appearance (sixth-most in AL); his patience could pay off given Pivetta's control issues this season.

Mitch Haniger: Has reached base in 16 of 18 games this season; hitting .315 with four homers and a .909 OPS.

Mets (Lucchesi) at Cubs (Williams), 7:40 p.m. ET

Mets SP: Joey Lucchesi, LHP
Key stat(s): Opponents are 0-for-6 with a 50% whiff rate vs. his curveball
2021 stats: 0-1, 5.40 ERA, 28.6 K%

Breakdown: Lucchesi will make just his second start (third appearance) of the season after Jacob deGrom asked for an extra day between starts. Lucchesi threw just 55 pitches over three innings in his Saturday start -- and 36 pitches in relief in his 2021 debut -- so it's unclear how many pitches the Mets will let him throw in this one. On the mound, the southpaw has struck out six and walked none over five innings, while allowing five hits -- all off his sinker, which he throws 53.8% of the time.

Notable Cubs hitters

Javier Báez: Hit .396 vs. sinkers from 2015-18, but he's just 32-for-130 (.246) against the pitch since '19. Leads MLB in strikeouts (31) and swings and misses (71).

Anthony Rizzo: .777 career OPS vs. LHP (.887 vs. RHP).

Kris Bryant: .996 career OPS vs. LHP (.860 vs. RHP); 5-for-12 (.417) with two homers over last three games after hitting .220 over first 12.

Cubs SP: Trevor Williams, RHP
Key stat(s): One extra-base hit allowed in 14 1/3 IP
2021 stats: 2-1, 5.02 ERA, 19.7 K%

Breakdown: Williams has pitched very well in his two starts at Wrigley Field this season, going 2-0 with a 2.45 ERA while striking out 10 in 11 innings. Though he's allowed 16 hits over 14 1/3 innings this season -- 10 of which came in just 3 1/3 frames in his lone road outing -- only one has gone for extra bases, and none have left the ballpark.

Notable Mets hitters

Pete Alonso: 100.4 mph average exit velocity on his 30 batted balls this season (highest in MLB among players with at least 25 balls in play).

Francisco Lindor: Recorded first home run of the season on Wednesday; still seeking first stolen base of 2021.

Dominic Smith: Ranks among top 15 in both xBA (.353) and xSLG (.714); the .309 difference between his actual slugging percentage (.405) and xSLG is second-highest in MLB.

Angels (Cobb) at Astros (Javier), 8:10 p.m. ET

Angels SP: Alex Cobb, RHP
Key stat(s): 46.7% whiff rate with splitter
2021 stats: 1-0, 4.63 ERA, 34.7 K%

Breakdown: Cobb is making his first start in 10 days after his last turn through rotation was skipped following a postponement. The right-hander has been leaning more on his splitter in his two starts this season, and for good reason. Opponents are just 4-for-26 (.154) with 13 strikeouts and a 46.7% whiff rate against his splitter, which he's throwing 45.4% of the time. That's up from 35.2% last season, when his most-used pitch was his sinker. He's using that sinker less as opponents continue to hit it hard -- they're 6-for-12 against it this season after hitting .353 with five homers and a .588 SLG in 2020.

Notable Astros hitters

Carlos Correa: 7-for-45 (.156) with two homers and 19 strikeouts in his career vs. splitters.

Michael Brantley: 1-for-10 lifetime vs. Cobb, though he does have four walks and zero strikeouts.

Yuli Gurriel: 4-for-27 (.148) with zero homers in his career vs. splitters.

Astros SP: Cristian Javier, RHP
Key stat(s): .074 opponents' BA on sliders since 2020 including postseason (best in MLB)
2021 stats: 1-0, 2.08 ERA, 31.4 K%

Breakdown: Javier will be making his first big league start since April 8 after he was sent to the alternate training site to build up his pitch count. He was impressive in his first two starts before being sent out, allowing just two runs while striking out 11 over 8 2/3 innings. Javier has absolutely dominated opposing hitters with his slider, as they are just 5-for-68 (.074) with 35 strikeouts against the offering in his career.

Notable Angels hitters

Mike Trout: Homered in back-to-back games; hitting .393 with a .507 OBP and 1.311 OPS this season. Trout is 11-for-52 (.212) vs. sliders since start of last season, though five of the 11 hits are home runs.

Shohei Ohtani: 9-for-45 (.200) with one homer and 17 K's vs. sliders since start of last season.

Marlins (Castano) at Giants (Sanchez), 9:45 p.m. ET

Marlins SP: Daniel Castano, LHP
Key stat(s): 2 swings and misses in 2021 debut
2021 stats: 0-0, 1.80 ERA, 0 K (5 IP)

Breakdown: Castano held the Giants to just one run off three hits over five innings on Friday in his first appearance of the season. He did so despite not recording a single strikeout and inducing only two swings and misses on his 74 pitches. The key was limiting hard contact (83.7 mph average exit velocity and 11.8% hard-hit rate) and keeping the ball on the ground (58.8% ground-ball rate). Combined with his seven appearances last season, Castano has just 12 strikeouts over 34 2/3 innings -- and he actually has more walks (13) than K's during that span (12).

Notable Giants hitters

Evan Longoria: Leads MLB with a 66.7 hard-hit percentage this season; he's 8-for-16 with four homers vs. left-handed pitchers this season (career OPS is 100 points higher vs. LHP than it is vs. RHP).

Giants SP: Aaron Sanchez, RHP
Key stat(s): 32.4% curveball usage in 2021
2021 stats: 0-1, 2.45 ERA, 19.1 K%

Breakdown: After missing all of last season while recovering from right shoulder surgery, Sanchez has returned with a revamped pitch mix in 2021. He's leaned heavily on his curveball so far (32.4% of pitches) while throwing his four-seamer -- his most-used pitch in 2019 (36.4% usage rate) -- just 17.1% of the time, less than his curve, sinker and changeup. That fastball is sitting at just 90.5 mph, down from 93.4 mph in '19. Sanchez topped out at 98 mph in a February showcase before being signed for the Giants, so it's possible his velocity will start to tick back up as the season goes on, though it's certainly worth watching moving forward.

Notable Marlins hitters

Jazz Chisholm: 25.8 barrel percentage is highest in MLB among players with at least 25 batted balls.

Adam Duvall: .204 career hitter (29-for-142) with 54 strikeouts vs. curveballs.

Jesús Aguilar: 24-for-117 (.205) with 49 K's and a .342 SLG vs. curveballs.

Padres (Weathers) at Dodgers (Buehler), 10:10 p.m. ET

Padres SP: Ryan Weathers, LHP
Key stat(s): Opponents are 0-for-12 with five K's vs. his slider
2021 stats: 1-0, 0.93 ERA, 29.4 K%

Breakdown: After beginning the year with three appearances out of the bullpen, Weathers made his first start on Friday against this same Dodgers club. He struck out three while allowing only one hit over 3 2/3 innings. The southpaw tossed 79 pitches in that one, so he is relatively stretched out heading into his second straight start against the first-place Dodgers. Los Angeles obviously has one of the most dangerous lineups in the Majors, though the club is currently without Cody Bellinger (on IL with a fracture in his left fibula) and could be without Mookie Betts (day to day; right forearm injury).

Notable Dodgers hitters

Justin Turner: Hitting .412 with seven homers and a 1.255 OPS at home since start of last season (.273 BA, .752 OPS on road).

Corey Seager: .784 career OPS vs. LHP (.902 OPS vs. RHP).

Mookie Betts: Day to day (HBP on right forearm on Monday).

Dodgers SP: Walker Buehler, RHP
Key stat(s): 17.1 K% this season
2021 stats: 1-0, 2.00 ERA, 17.1 K%

Breakdown: Buehler has pitched six innings in each of his three starts and is yet to allow more than two runs -- but he's also yet to strike out more than four batters. The right-hander has just 12 K's in 18 innings, with his 17.1 K% sitting well below his career mark of 28.1%. Part of that is his four-seam fastball has simply been less effective. After opponents went just 6-for-59 (.102) with one extra-base hit (a double) and 23 K's against his four-seamer last year, they're 11-for-42 (.262) with three extra-base hits (including a home run) against the pitch this year. His fastball is sitting at 95.1 mph through three starts, down nearly 2 mph from last season (96.8 mph).

Notable Padres hitters

Manny Machado: 66.0% hard-hit percentage (second in MLB) and 95.6 mph average exit velocity (third).

Eric Hosmer: 2-for-16 (both singles) with five K's in his career vs. Buehler.

Fernando Tatis Jr.: Two homers in last four at-bats vs. Buehler.