The weather is heating up, and the baseball season is in full swing. As we enter June, it’s time to take a good look at the standings. There’s still plenty of baseball left, but trends that began in April have solidified further in May. Just about a third of the way into the season, it’s time to start thinking about whether our current division leaders are for real.
Let’s take a look at those leaders and what the postseason field could look like come October. Note, all stats below exclude the shortened 2020 season and instead look at full seasons for the impact and postseason implications.
What it means to be in first place
Since 1996 -- the first full season with at least one Wild Card in each league after the '95 campaign was limited to 144 games due to the strike that began in 1994 -- 95 of 162 eventual division champions held at least a share of their division lead entering June 1. That’s 59% of division winners.
Pay special attention, Yankees, Guardians, Mariners, Phillies, Brewers and Dodgers fans -- those teams are our current division leaders heading into June.
Last season, four of the six division leaders on June 1 went on to win their divisions. In the American League, the Twins won their division, while the Rays and Rangers, who led the AL East and West, respectively, entering June, each made the postseason as Wild Cards instead. In the NL, the Braves, Brewers and Dodgers each led entering June and went on to win their divisions.
If you were wondering, there’s been just one season in this span where all six division champions held at least a share of their division lead entering June 1: 1998.
Since 1996, 15 of the 27 World Series winners, excluding 2020, led their divisions entering June. The Rangers did so last year, although they did not go on to win the division.
Those defending champion Rangers are not in first place entering June. How rare is that? Not as rare as you might think. Of the 27 teams to win the World Series since 1996 and play in May the next year, just six have found themselves in first place through May that subsequent year. The 2018 Astros were the last to do it.
This year’s leaders overall
Of this year’s current division leaders entering June, each has had at least a share of that lead entering June at least one other time since 2018, except one. The Mariners are in this spot for the first time since 2003.
Each of the current leaders has won its division at least once since 2022 -- except the Phillies, who last did so in 2011, and Mariners, who last did in 2001.
What’s next
Even two months in, there’s still plenty of baseball left to be played. But fans of the six division leaders can take some comfort in knowing that historically, more than half of those teams have gone on to win their divisions. And while 59% of teams with a share of the division lead entering June win that division, plenty do not. Only time will tell. That’s why they play the game -- and, luckily, we get to follow along.