Draft: Pick-by-pick, first-round analysis

June 9th, 2016

The 2016 Draft got underway on Thursday night in Secaucus, N.J., as the Phillies selected high school outfielder Mickey Moniak with the first overall pick.
MLB.com Draft and prospect expert Jim Callis analyzes every pick from the first round.
1. Philadelphia Phillies: OF Mickey Moniak, La Costa Canyon (Calif.) HS
Callis: Even though he's a high school player, Moniak has one of the highest floors in the Draft. He's a surefire up-the-middle-player in a Draft that doesn't have many of them. Moniak is going to hit. He's going to run. He's going to play a good center field. And Moniak's power has improved this season. I like this pick.
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2. Cincinnati Reds: 3B Nick Senzel, Tennessee
Callis: In a Draft with a lot of uncertainty, Senzel (like Moniak) has one of the highest floors. He's arguably the best pure hitter in college baseball, and there is more power in there. Senzel has proven he can play third base, and he should be a solid regular in the big leagues very quickly.
3. Atlanta Braves: RHP Ian Anderson, Shenendehowa (N.Y.) HS
Callis: This might seem like a bit of a surprise if you're just looking at the MLB Pipeline rankings (Anderson is No. 13), but this possibility has been talked about for the past few days. The Braves were out in force at Anderson's start on Saturday, and didn't think he'd get to their second pick at No. 40. Anderson has a plus fastball and a potential plus slider. He's the first of several high school arms who should go in the first 15-20 picks.
4. Colorado Rockies: RHP Riley Pint, Saint Thomas Aquinas (Kan.) HS
Callis: This breaks the heart of the Tigers, who coveted Pint and had a good chance to get him at No. 9 if he didn't go here. There is some risk involved with his delivery and command, but he has the highest ceiling in the Draft. Pint can hit 102 mph with his fastball, show you a plus curveball and scouts say his changeup is a plus pitch, too. That just might be the formula to succeed at Coors Field.
5. Milwaukee Brewers: OF Corey Ray, Louisville
Callis: There was some chatter before the weekend that Ray might fall to the bottom of the top 10, but this makes a lot more sense. I love the power/speed combination, and while we don't know if he can play center field, he has the speed to at least give it a shot. Ray still profiles well at the corner outfield spots.
6. Oakland Athletics: LHP A.J. Puk, Florida
Callis: A week ago, I thought Puk was the top guy for the Phillies, Reds and Braves. But inconsistency is the knock on Puk, and a lackluster start on Saturday apparently helped knock him down to No. 6. Puk can show you a mid-90s fastball and a wipeout slider, so I think the A's have at least a late-inning reliever here. If he can get more consistent, they have a front-line starter.
7. Miami Marlins: LHP Braxton Garrett, Florence (Ala.) HS
Callis: Jason Groome was the No. 1 prospect on MLB Pipeline. Puk was a strong favorite to go first overall. But if I could have any left-hander in the Draft, I would want Garrett. I think he's going to have the best career of them. Garrett may not just be the safest high school pick, he may be the safest pick in general. What's the flaw in this guy? He's polished. He throws strikes. I think Garrett is a potential No. 2 starter who gets to the big leagues very, very quickly.
8. San Diego Padres: RHP Cal Quantrill, Stanford
Callis: This one was no secret. People have been linking the Padres to Quantrill for months, and they knew they couldn't wait until pick No. 24 if they wanted him. He's barely pitched in the past two years after Tommy John surgery, but he's ready to get going again and he has solid stuff across the board, not to mention big league stock with his father, Paul. If he were healthy, Quantrill might have been the first college pitcher selected.
9. Detroit Tigers: RHP Matt Manning, Sheldon (Calif.) HS
Callis: It's really easy to dream on Manning. He's 6-foot-6, can run his fastball into the upper 90s, and is also an accomplished basketball player, whose father, Rick, played in the NBA. Manning is not as developed as the high school pitchers that have gone ahead of him, but his power curveball shows promise as a second pitch. There were a lot of rumors about Manning's signability, but if he went at No. 9, he's not going to be playing two sports at Loyola Marymount.
10. Chicago White Sox: C Zack Collins, Miami
Callis: I'm not completely sold that Collins will be a catcher long-term, but he's one of the most well-rounded hitters among college players in this Draft. He hits for average, he hits for power, he draws walks. If they can clean Collins up behind the plate, he can be an All-Star. If not, I still think he'll hit more than enough to profile at first base.
11. Seattle Mariners: OF Kyle Lewis, Mercer
Callis: What a steal for the Mariners. If I owned the No. 1 pick in this Draft, I would have taken Lewis there. I think it's the best combination of ceiling and floor in this Draft. Even if he doesn't stay in center field, that power profiles so well on the corner. I think the concerns about quality of competition Lewis faced at Mercer are overblown, because what more could this guy do? He stood out in the Cape Cod League -- a showcase for top college prospects -- and he dominated the Southern Conference the past two years. I'm all in.
12. Boston Red Sox: LHP Jason Groome, Barnegat (N.J.) HS
Callis: Nobody knew exactly where MLB Pipeline's top-ranked prospect was going to go for sure, though the Red Sox were strongly rumored today. There are murmurs of makeup issues that concern clubs, but from a strict talent standpoint, Groome jumps off the board here. He's a lefty with an outstanding fastball-curveball combination and a nice delivery. Getting that package at No. 12 has the potential to be a coup.
13. Tampa Bay Rays: 3B Joshua Lowe, Pope HS (Marietta, Ga.)
Callis: Lowe has some of the best all-around tools in this high school class. He has plus raw power, plus speed, plus arm, and a chance to be a good defender at third base or even center field. There are some mild concerns about the bat, but if for some reason that doesn't work out, Lowe also has huge upside on the mound. I got Adam Wainwright comps from scouts about him this spring.
14. Cleveland Indians: OF Will Benson, The Westminster Schools (Atlanta)
Callis: You can't talk about Benson without talking about Jason Heyward. They are both from the Atlanta area, hit left-handed, have the same type of build and athleticism. Benson tried to do too much at times this spring, but once he settles down a little, he can have solid tools across the board. It is fun to think about Cleveland's future all-first-round-pick outfield with Benson, Clint Frazier and Bradley Zimmer.
15. Minnesota Twins: OF Alex Kirilloff, Plum HS (Pittsburgh)
Callis: Kirilloff first caught my eye when he won the Perfect Game All-American Classic Home Run Derby last summer. That said, he's more than just a slugger. He's a good athlete who fits the right-field profile. He can have average or better tools across the board.
16. Los Angeles Angels: C Matt Thaiss, Virginia
Callis: Thaiss rivals Senzel as perhaps the best pure hitter in this college Draft class. There is power in there, too, and I don't think there is much question he's going to hit at the big league level. On the other hand, there are a lot of concerns about whether he'll receive well enough to catch there. My guess is he winds up at first base and the good news with that is he'll be able to maximize his potential at the plate.
17. Houston Astros: RHP Forrest Whitley, Alamo Heights HS (San Antonio)
Callis: In four years of high school, Whitley went from a sub-6-footer with a mid-70s fastball to 6-foot-7 and throwing in the mid 90s. He did a great job of improving his conditioning heading into his senior season and it paid off with improved stuff, including a power curveball and a promising changeup to go with that heat.
18. New York Yankees: OF Blake Rutherford, Chaminade Prep (Canoga Park, Calif.)
Callis: Signability concerns are the main reason that Rutherford lasted this long. He's a very good value here for the Yankees. MLB Pipeline ranked him as the best high school position player coming into the year, and he's another athletic outfielder with a chance to have solid tools across the board.
19. New York Mets: RHP Justin Dunn, Boston College
Callis: Dunn had so much helium down the stretch that I thought there was a very good chance he would go No. 10 to the White Sox or No. 11 to the Mariners. So the Mets have to be pleasantly surprised to get him here. He opened the season in BC's bullpen, but proved he could start and seemed to get better every outing down the stretch.
20. Los Angeles Dodgers: SS Gavin Lux, Indian Trail HS (Kenosha, Wis.)
Callis: With Delvin Perez reportedly failing a pre-Draft PED test, Lux became the top shortstop in a Draft that's very weak at the position. He took a significant step forward this spring, making improvements with his swing, strength, speed and arm. He grew up around the game as the nephew of former No. 2 overall pick Augie Schmidt, now the coach of Division III Carthage (Wisc.), and his instincts stand out as well.
21. Toronto Blue Jays: RHP TJ Zeuch, Pittsburgh
Callis: Zeuch missed the start of the season with a groin injury, but once he got back on the mound he kept moving up Draft boards. His size (6-goot-7) and mid-90s fastball stand out the most about him, and his ability to refine his secondary pitches will determine whether he's a starter or reliever.
22. Pittsburgh Pirates: 3B Will Craig, Wake Forest
Callis: From a numbers standpoint, it would be hard to argue that any college hitter has done more the past two years than Craig. He's an all-bat guy who draws comparisons to Billy Butler in both a positive and negative sense. He also throws 94 mph off the mound, so he has the arm for third base, though his lack of athleticism will move him to first.
23. St. Louis Cardinals: SS Delvin Perez, Colegio Individualizado PJ Education School (P.R.)
Callis: Perez was in discussion for several top 10 picks before a report surfaced that he failed a pre-Draft drug test for an undisclosed PED. The Padres were in play for Perez and were looming with the next two picks, which may have been why the Cardinals moved here. Before the positive test, Perez was considered clearly the best shortstop in the Draft.
24. San Diego Padres: SS Hudson Sanchez, Carroll (Texas) HS (Compensation for Justin Upton, who signed with the Tigers. Detroit forfeited its third-round pick.)
Callis: This is the biggest surprise of the first round so far. MLBPipeline had him ranked as more of a third-round pick (91st overall), though he did show one of the more impressive bats on the showcase circuit last summer. It'll be interesting to see where Sanchez will play as a pro. He could be a third baseman, could be a corner outfielder, and some scouts are intrigued with the idea of trying him as a catcher.
25. San Diego Padres: LHP Eric Lauer, Kent State (Compensation for Ian Kennedy, who signed with the Royals. Kansas City forfeited its first-round pick.)
Callis: After the Padres took Sanchez at No. 24, I thought they might go for a high-priced high school arm here, such as Joey Wentz or Kevin Gowdy. Instead, they got Lauer, who might be the first college starter in this Draft to reach the big leagues. He's so polished: a lefty who can locate four pitches wherever he wants. His 0.69 ERA was the lowest for an NCAA Division I starter since 1979.
26. Chicago White Sox: RHP Zack Burdi, Louisville (Compensation for Jeff Samardzija, who signed with the Giants. San Francisco forfeited its first-round pick.)
Callis: The White Sox apparently covet ACC players named Zack. After getting Miami catcher Zack Collins at No. 10 overall, they nabbed the Louisville product here. This one could be the first player from this Draft to reach the Majors, perhaps as soon as this summer. His fastball tops out at 101 mph -- his older brother, Nick, in the Twins organization, throws even harder -- and he has a hard slider to go with it.
27. Baltimore Orioles RHP Cody Sedlock, Illinois (Compensation for Wei-Yin Chen, who signed with the Marlins. Miami forfeited its second-round pick.)
Callis: This makes two members of Illinois' 2015 bullpen who became first-round picks, with Sedlock following Tyler Jay, who went No. 6 overall to the Twins last June. Jay moved to the rotation in pro ball this spring, while Sedlock started making the transition last summer in the Cape Cod league. He has a hard sinker, throws four pitches for strikes and has a durable frame.
28. Washington Nationals : SS Carter Kieboom, Walton HS (Marietta, Ga.) (Compensation for Jordan Zimmermann, who signed with the Tigers. Detroit forfeited its second-round pick.)
Callis: There are some family ties here, as his brother Spencer is a catcher in the Nationals system. But this is more than a human-interest pick. Keiboom is one of the better hitters in the high school ranks and barrels balls with ease. He'll be a third baseman at the next level and has the offensive potential to profile there. Incidentally, he's also a switch-pitcher.
29. Washington Nationals: RHP Dane Dunning, Florida (Compensation for Ian Desmond, who signed with the Rangers. Texas forfeited its first-round pick.)
Callis: Florida's pitching staff is loaded with arms. So much so, that Dunning can't even crack the weekend rotation. I bet the Nationals make him a starter in pro ball, however. He's got a lively low-90s fastball and a changeup that ranks ahead of his slider.
30. Texas Rangers: LHP Cole Ragans, North Florida Christian (Fla.) HS (Compensation for Yovani Gallardo, who signed with the Orioles. Baltimore forfeited its first-round pick.)
Callis: Ragans is a classic, projectable high school lefty with a chance for three solid pitches and the control to match. His fastball might be his best pitch, more for its angle and command than for pure velocity.
31. New York Mets: LHP Anthony Kay, Connecticut (Compensation for Daniel Murphy, who signed with the Nationals. Washington forfeited its first-round pick.)
Callis: Here's another polished left-hander towards the end of the first round. He doesn't have a true plus pitch, but he has an effective fastball and changeup and throws a lot of strikes.
32. Los Angeles Dodgers: C Will Smith, Louisville (Compensation for Zack Greinke, who signed with the D-backs. Arizona forfeited its first-round pick.)
Callis: There was buzz he was going to go at the end of the first round or early in the supplemental first round, so this makes sense. He might hit .260-.270, give you a little bit of power, be a good receiver and give you a good arm behind the plate. I had one scout give me a plus run time on him.
33. St. Louis Cardinals: OF Dylan Carlson, Elk Grove (Calif.) HS (Compensation for John Lackey, who signed with the Cubs. Chicago forfeited its first-round pick.)
Callis: He wasn't on the MLBPipeline Top 200, though I had some scouts tip me off that he could go on the first day of the Draft. He's a switch-hitter with a good swing from both sides of the plate and some interesting power potential.
34. St. Louis Cardinals : RHP Dakota Hudson, Mississippi State (Compensation for Jason Heyward, who signed with the Cubs. Chicago forfeited its second pick.)
Callis: What a great value for the Cardinals here. Hudson didn't pitch as well in the SEC Tournament or NCAA regionals as he did earlier in the year, but his fastball-slider combination is one of the more devastating arsenals in the Draft. Whether he is a starter or a reliever, it's a power arm that you wouldn't expect to get to No. 34. If St. Louis didn't take him here, the Reds were going to pounce on the next pick.
35. Cincinnati Reds: OF Taylor Trammell, Mount Paran Christian (Kennesaw, Ga.)
36. Los Angeles Dodgers : RHP Jordan Sheffield, Vanderbilt (Compensation for not signing 2015 No. 35 overall pick Kyle Funkhouser)
37. Oakland Athletics: RHP Daulton Jefferies, California
38. Colorado Rockies: RHP Robert Tyler, Georgia
39. Arizona Diamondbacks: OF Anfernee Grier, Auburn
40. Atlanta Braves: LHP Joey Wentz, Shawnee Mission East (Kan.) HS
41. Pittsburgh Pirates: LHP Nick Lodolo, Damien (Calif.) HS
The Reds, who had the highest bonus pool for the top 10 rounds ($13,923,700) and the first selection after the first round, found just the type of high-ceiling player they hoped for at No. 35 in high school outfielder Trammell. Georgia's Class A football player of the year after rushing for 2,479 yards and 36 touchdowns last fall, he has plus-plus speed and surprising feel to hit for someone whose time has been divided between two sports.
Similarly, the Braves had the third-highest pool ($13,224,100) and grabbed mid-first-round talent Wentz at No. 40. A Kansas prep left-hander who sought a top-10-pick bonus, he bounced back from a dead arm last summer to work at 90-95 mph and show a pair of promising secondary pitches this spring.
The Dodgers and Rockies got good values in a pair of Southeastern Conference arms. At No. 36, Los Angeles took Vanderbilt right-hander Sheffield, who has three plus pitches and draws Marcus Stroman comparisons at his best. Two picks later, Colorado grabbed Georgia right-hander Tyler, who can reach 100 mph as a starter and probably fits best as a reliever in pro ball.
42. Philadelphia Philllies: RHP Kevin Gowdy, Santa Barbara (Calif.) HS  
43. Cincinnati Reds: C Chris Okey, Clemson
44. Atlanta Braves: LHP Kyle Muller, Jesuit College Prep (Dallas)
45. Colorado Rockies:  LHP Ben Bowden, Vanderbilt
46. Milwaukee Brewers: 3B Lucas Erceg, Menlo College
47. Oakland Athletics: RHP Logan Shore, Florida
48. San Diego Padres: OF Buddy Reed, Florida
49. Chicago White Sox: RHP Alec Hansen, Oklahoma
50. Seattle Mariners: 3B Joe Rizzo, Oakton (Va.) HS
51. Boston Red Sox: SS C.J. Chatham, Florida Atlantic
52. Arizona Diamondbacks: C Andrew Yerzy, York Mills Collegiate Institute 
53. Tampa Bay Rays: OF Ryan Boldt, Nebraska
54. Baltimore Orioles: LHP Keegan Akin, Western Michigan 
55. Cleveland Indians: 3B Nolan Jones, Holy Ghost Prep (Bensalem, Pa.)
56. Minnesota Twins: C Ben Rortvedt, Verona (Wis.) Area HS
57. Toronto Blue Jays: OF J.B. Woodman, Mississippi (Compensation for not signing 2015 No. 56 overall pick Brady Singer)
58. Washington Nationals: 3B Sheldon Neuse, Oklahoma
59. San Francisco Giants: OF Bryan Reynolds, Vanderbilt
60. Los Angeles Angels: OF Brandon Marsh, Buford (Ga.) HS
61. Houston Astros: OF Ronnie Dawson, Ohio State
62. New York Yankees: 2B Nick Solak, Louisville
63. Texas Rangers: RHP Alex Speas, McEachern HS (Powder Springs, Ga.)
64. New York Mets: 1B, Peter Alonso, Florida
65. Los Angeles Dodgers: RHP Mitchell White, Santa Clara
66. Toronto Blue Jays: SS Bo Bichette, Lakewood (Fla.) HS
67. Kansas City Royals: RHP A.J. Puckett, Pepperdine
68. Pittsburgh Pirates: RHP Travis MacGregor, East Lake (Fla.) HS
69. Baltimore Orioles: RHP Matthias Dietz, John A. Logan CC (Compensation for not signing 2015 No. 68 overall pick Jonathan Hughes)
70. St. Louis Cardinals: RHP Connor Jones, Virginia
The Phillies, the other team with a top-three bonus pool ($13,405,200), got a first-round-caliber arm at the top of the second round (No. 42) in California high school right-hander Gowdy, who's very projectable and already has a low-90s fastball and advanced feel for his secondary offerings. The Braves picked up three of the eight best prep pitchers, getting Texas lefty Muller at No. 44 to go with third overall choice Anderson and Wentz. Muller has a big league body and a fastball that reaches 95 mph.
The Rangers took on an intriguing project in Georgia high school right-hander Speas (No. 63), who's raw but has the stuff and frame to earn Dwight Gooden comps. Virginia righty Jones projected as a first-round pick for much of the spring but the Cardinals got him with the final pick of the round (No. 70). He's a sinker/slider guy with a track record of performing for three years with the Cavaliers.
Pennsylvania high school third baseman Jones and Vanderbilt outfielder Reynolds belonged in the first round and were the best position players selected in the second. Jones, whose best tool is his left-handed power, went 55th to the Indians. Reynolds, who has the chance to stay in center field and have solid tools across the board, was the first selection of the Giants (No. 59).
Florida outfielder Reed was one of the best college athletes available, though concerns about his bat dropped him to the Padres at No. 48. Conversely, Virginia prep third baseman Rizzo was one of the top high school bats but has questions about his long-term defensive home. That's why he was available to the Mariners at No. 50.
71. San Diego Padres: RHP Reggie Lawson, Victor Valley Senior (Calif) HS
72. Cleveland Indians: C Logan Ice, Oregon State
73. Minnesota Twins: SS Jose Miranda, Leadership Christian Academy (P.R.)
74. Minnesota Twins: OF Akil Baddoo, Salem (Ga.) HS (Compensation for not signing 2015 No. 73 overall pick Kyle Cody)
75. Milwaukee Brewers: C Mario Feliciano, Carlos Beltran Baseball Academy (P.R.)
76. Atlanta Braves: C Brett Cumberland, California (Via trade with Orioles)
77. Tampa Bay Rays: OF Jake Fraley, LSU
Two position players stood out in the supplemental second round. The Twins got an athlete with 20-20 potential in Georgia high school outfielder Baddoo at No. 74. With their fourth choice of the night (No. 76), the Braves added California catcher Cumberland, who can rake from both sides of the plate but likely will move to first base.