Inbox: Draft prospect comparisons

May 7th, 2020

I thoroughly enjoyed asking scouting executives to compare Arizona State first baseman Spencer Torkelson and Vanderbilt outfielder/third baseman Austin Martin, the two highest-ranked players on MLB Pipeline's Draft Top 150. I expected Torkelson would prevail, though not by a 29-5-1 landslide, and the related quotes were illuminating.

Working on that story got me further stoked for the Draft, which almost certainly will begin June 10 with more details to come in the near future. So I asked you to fill the Pipeline Inbox with more Draft comparisons for me to mull, and you did exactly that. Let's get to them.

Last year's No. 1 overall pick by the Orioles vs. this year's presumed No. 1 overall choice by the Tigers. As special as Spencer Torkelson's bat is -- one National League scouting director called him the most Major League-ready player he's ever seen -- I have to go with Adley Rutschman.

Torkelson has elite power but Rutschman is no slouch in that category either, he's a similar hitter and he has a chance to be a Gold Glove catcher. The defensive value tips this in Rutschman's favor.

The biggest difference between the two was that Dansby Swanson proved he could play shortstop as a Vanderbilt junior, while scouts hoped Austin Martin would do the same. But he didn't get the opportunity, didn't look great throwing the ball when he opened this season at third base and wound up moving to center field.

Martin was a better pure hitter at the same stage, they had similar power and speed, and Swanson had superior arm strength and defensive value. Martin offers more offensive upside and I think he'll play up the middle somewhere, so I'll go with him.

These are the top two pitchers on our Draft Top 150, with Texas A&M left-hander Asa Lacy checking in at No. 3 and Georgia righty Emerson Hancock at No. 4. They both have three plus pitches in their fastballs, sliders and changeups, and their curveballs both can flash plus at times. Hancock has finer control, but Lacy misses more bats and was sharper this spring, so I'll take the southpaw.

The three best high school pitchers in this Draft, all right-handers, are so close. There's less history with Nick Bitsko because he reclassified from the 2021 Draft to 2020 in January and he never pitched in a game this spring, but he's just as talented as Mick Abel and Jared Kelley.

Kelley throws a tick harder and has a slightly better changeup than the other two. Abel might have the best slider in the prep class, while Bitsko may have the best curveball. Abel has a little more polish than the others, and he's the most projectable at 6-foot-5 and 190 pounds, and that gives him the edge for me.

Let's wrap up this Inbox with an international comparison between two outfielders and half-brothers, the No. 1 prospect on MLB Pipeline's new International Top 30 and the two-time All-Star trying to come back from heel and ankle injuries with the Mets. Yoelqui is 22, four years younger than Yoenis was when he originally signed with the Athletics in February 2012.

The age difference helped, but Yoenis was more physical and had more power when he entered pro ball than Yoelqui does now, and he also had a better track record as a hitter in Cuba. They had comparable speed and arm strength, with Yoelqui having a better chance to steal bases and stick in center field. Yoenis was a better prospect and made an immediate impact, posting an .861 OPS and finishing second in the American League rookie of the year voting in 2012.