Execs discern opening month surprises

May 6th, 2021

The opening month of the 2021 season has come and gone, and while there are still nearly five months to go in the 162-game grind, April provided some intriguing storylines to watch.

MLB.com polled 25 front-office executives with a number of questions to gauge what we’ve learned to this point.

Which player or team has been the biggest surprise?

San Francisco Giants (9 votes)
Yermín Mercedes, Chicago White Sox (7 votes)
Kansas City Royals (2 votes)
J.D. Martinez, Boston Red Sox (1 vote)
Byron Buxton, Minnesota Twins (1 vote)
Tyler Naquin, Cincinnati Reds (1 vote)
Cedric Mullins, Baltimore Orioles (1 vote)
Boston Red Sox (1 vote)
Carlos Rodón, White Sox (1 vote)
Seattle Mariners (1 vote)
Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Angels (1 vote)

The Dodgers and Padres garnered most of the headlines this winter, leading many to believe the National League West would be a two-team race between the Southern California rivals. But the team a few hundred miles to the north has had something to say about that, as the Giants entered May in first place in the ultra-competitive division.

“I doubt you can find too many people who had them leading the NL West,” one NL executive said.

Another NL exec said that on paper, the Giants “aren’t supposed to be competing in that division,” but after watching San Francisco during the season’s first month, the Giants' early success “looks pretty real thus far.”

San Francisco's pitching has anchored the team to this point, though two executives cited the club’s “outstanding roster management” in making their pick, with one pointing to under-the-radar moves such as the recent trade for outfielder Mike Tauchman.

“Their pitching staff is solid, and they seemingly have money to spend at the deadline to supplement the roster,” an American League executive said. “The payroll is under where it was when they were winning World Series titles.”

As for the player who has opened the most eyes, Mercedes was a runaway winner, earning seven votes. The 28-year-old designated hitter slashed .415/.455/.659 with five home runs and 16 RBIs in the opening month, helping make up for the absence of Eloy Jiménez from Chicago’s lineup.

“Released twice, an independent ball stint, his age,” an AL executive said, recounting Mercedes’ story. “Most of us believed he could hit, but no one expected this much offense in his first month.”

While Mercedes has seemingly come out of nowhere, Buxton earned a vote for emerging as the star many had projected for some time.

“One of the most talented players in the game showing what he’s always been capable of," an AL executive said. “He is truly one of the most dynamic players in the game, dominating in every phase of the game right now.”

Rodón caught the sport’s attention with his April 14 no-hitter, but the White Sox lefty was dominant all month, going 4-0 with a 0.72 ERA.

“For everything he's been through, he's come out and now has the look of a classic ace and workhorse,” an AL exec said, referring to the elbow and shoulder injuries that have plagued the 28-year-old throughout his career.

Which player or team has been the biggest disappointment?

Francisco Lindor, New York Mets (9 votes)
Minnesota Twins (5 votes)
Atlanta Braves (2 votes)
Keston Hiura, Milwaukee Brewers (2 votes)
Chicago Cubs (1 vote)
Los Angeles Angels (1 vote)
The NL East (1 vote)
Major League hitters (1 vote)

The lack of hitting in April -- the Major League batting average was .232, while hitters compiled nearly 1,100 more strikeouts than hits -- left a number of candidates for this one, though one executive chose to vote for the entire lot of hitters around the league.

“You could name numerous players,” an NL executive said. “But considering how tough hitting has been for most of the league, it’s tough to single any one guy out.”

The player named more often than any other was Lindor, whose blockbuster trade and subsequent $341 million extension produced great expectations for his first season with the Mets.

“Is there another answer?” one AL executive said.

Lindor slashed .189/.299/.243 with one home run and three RBIs in 20 games during the opening month, one of the reasons the Mets were 9-11 when the calendar flipped to May.

“I did not see him struggling like this,” another AL exec said.

From a team standpoint, the Twins -- coming off back-to-back AL Central titles and postseason trips in three of the past four seasons -- were named more than any other club after Minnesota went 9-15 in April.

“I thought they would battle with the White Sox for the division, and they still might,” an NL executive said. “But they’ve dug a hole that is going to take some really good baseball to get out of.”

Hiura received two votes, and that was before Milwaukee optioned him to Triple-A this week. Hiura slashed .167/.268/.292 with one home run and five RBIs in 24 April games, striking out 29 times in 82 plate appearances.

“I’m just not sure what happened there as a hitter,” an AL executive said.

Other teams receiving votes included the Braves, who were named twice, and the Cubs and Angels, who received one vote apiece.

“[The Cubs] did nothing to improve a glaring weakness within their pitching staff,” an NL executive said. “They should have the resources to be better than this.”

A dearth of pitching was also the reason given for the Angels’ selection by an AL executive.

“They have three of the best players in the game in their primes, but can’t surround them with enough talent to get over the hump,” the exec said.

The Yankees will finish ____ this season.

Second place/AL Wild Card/87-90 wins (10 votes)
First place/90+ wins (9 votes)
Third place (3 votes)

The Yankees’ 12-14 record at the end of April didn’t do much to dissuade most executives from picking New York to reach the postseason for a fifth consecutive season. But more execs picked manager Aaron Boone’s club to get there via the Wild Card than as AL East champions.

“They’re so deep, and [Gerrit] Cole is elite,” an NL executive said. “But the division is tougher maybe than expected, and their position-player group seems to miss a lot of time.”

“They are still loaded,” a second NL executive said of the Yankees’ roster. “But they’re far from invincible.”

“The AL East is looking like it will be a dogfight all summer,” added another NL exec.

Multiple executives cited the Yankees’ overall talent and wealth of resources as reasons why New York will overcome its sluggish start to claim the division title for the second time in three years.

“The starting pitching is very good, and they’ll hit enough,” an AL executive said. “Boston is not there yet; it will be the Yankees and Rays at the top.”

The offense ranked 12th in the AL with just 102 runs scored, while the team slashed .224/.317/.390 in the first month of the season. Yet most execs believe the offense will figure things out -- and run into a little more luck than it has to this point.

“Their [.259] BABIP is too low to be sustainable,” an AL executive said.

Three executives picked the Yankees to finish in third place, with one pegging them as a .500 team.

“They’re an older team with guys who get injured often,” an NL executive reasoned. “The Rays and Blue Jays are going to make it tough on them.”

The Royals will finish ____ this season.

Third place/81-84 wins (14 votes)
Fourth place/Under .500 (4 votes)
Second place/AL Wild Card/85-88 wins (3 votes)
First place/89+ wins (2 votes)

Kansas City’s solid start has made believers of a handful of executives, but the majority of those that voted still view the Royals as a team that is not quite ready for prime time.

“Their pitching isn’t quite good enough to hang with the other teams in the division all year long,” said an AL executive.

“They have strong position players, but I don’t see the starting-pitching group holding up over 162,” said an NL exec. “The rookies will have to step up big.”

Most executives were impressed by the Royals’ 15-9 April, though the club’s -2 run differential led some to believe that Kansas City’s winning percentage will not be sustainable, with one exec saying the team was “playing over its skis.”

“The Royals will be closer to .500 than people thought,” said an AL executive. “But a negative run differential says more about them than their record.”

Many of the executives who picked the Royals to finish third see the White Sox and Twins as the two best teams in the division, though the poll was taken prior to Luis Robert’s injury, one that will keep him out of action for several months.

Even those who picked the Royals to finish third and/or miss the postseason believe this is a team on the rise.

“K.C. will stay in it until the end,” an NL executive said. “They are for real.”

“They are up and coming and will pressure Chicago and Minnesota,” an AL executive said. “But ultimately, they’ll fall just short.”

One executive who predicted that the Royals would have a winning record believes the overall state of the AL Central would help Kansas City stay in the race throughout the season.

“Unlike the AL East, they will get some wins from that division, and they are motivated,” an NL exec said. “I can also see them as buyers.”

Who is the best team in baseball?

Los Angeles Dodgers (23 votes)
San Diego Padres (1 vote)
Hanshin Tigers (1 vote)

This was nearly unanimous, as 23 out of the 25 executives polled chose the Dodgers. Los Angeles started the season 13-2, and even a 3-9 finish to April wasn’t enough to change most people’s minds when it comes to the sport’s top team.

“Pitching, offense, defense, stars, depth,” an AL executive said. “If they stay close to healthy, they can be historically good.”

“The Dodgers remain the best,” another AL executive said. “Look at their underlying performance and the record, and it’s hard to see anyone quite in their class.”

Even with the loss of Dustin May to Tommy John surgery, the Dodgers’ depth in the rotation -- and just about everywhere else -- should allow Los Angeles to shake off any injuries en route to a ninth straight NL West title.

“Even without May, [Corey] Knebel, [Brusdar] Graterol, everyone, they remain stupid deep and stupid talented,” an AL executive said. “And now the injuries get to make them feel like they're facing adversity, too. That’s a heck of a motivator after a hangover.”

The only other teams receiving votes were the Padres and the Hanshin Tigers of Japan’s Central League, the latter compiling a 20-9 record through the end of April.

“They’re playing .690 baseball,” said the AL executive, who went off the board to pick Hanshin.

As for San Diego, the AL executive, who tabbed the Padres as the best team in the Majors, acknowledged that on paper the Dodgers are the better team. But as we know, they don’t play the games on paper.

“The Dodgers have the greatest collection of talent but are not the greatest team,” said the lone AL executive to choose San Diego. “The Padres might not have the better talent, but they are the better team. Their manager manages a good game, and their team plays as a unit.”