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It’s Thursday, and that not only means the weekend is around the corner, it means we’ve got plenty of baseball on the docket. I’ve taken a look at the entire card and I think I’ve picked out three winners.
Here are my best MLB bets to consider on DraftKings Sportsbook.
San Francisco Giants at San Diego Padres
Giants ML (-115)
Okay, so this game doesn’t technically fall on the night slate, but there aren’t very many options to choose from. The Giants have won 15 of their last 19 to fend off the Dodgers out in the NL West, and while it might feel like this hot streak will eventually come to an end, the matchup here couldn’t be better.
Yu Darvish’s numbers have been rough, as he's posted an ERA over six in each of the last three months. While he did shut down the Cardinals last time out, there are plenty of underlying numbers that would indicate St. Louis isn’t very mighty offensively, throwing cold water on the outing. The Giants just touched up Darvish for eight runs a little over a week ago, and have the second-highest wRC+ in baseball over the last two weeks. This will be a tough test, and one Darvish should fail. We don’t even have to get into how good Logan Webb has been, and how poor the Padres have hit lately.
Pittsburgh Pirates at Philadelphia Phillies
Under 8.5 (-120)
With a short slate, we’re going to have to do things like bet on Connor Overton. Now, the Pirates’ opener has made it 11 2⁄3 innings without allowing a run this season, with solid strikeout numbers and very few hits allowed. Since coming over from the Blue Jays, he’s been solid in limiting the damage every time out, and in his first start he went three scoreless innings. Behind him, the Pirates’ bullpen has actually been decent of late, with a 3.88 ERA over the last two weeks.
The Phillies’ bats have been relatively cool with a 97 wRC+ over that same span, and have been particularly quiet in this series. I expect a low-scoring game given this matchup and given Aaron Nola is riding some great momentum into this start against a bad lineup.
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Minnesota Twins
Twins ML +120
Would you believe that over the last week, it’s been the Twins out-performing the Blue Jays at the plate? It hasn’t been close, either, with Minnesota ranking inside the top 10 in wRC+ and the Jays finding themselves in 23rd.
Toronto just went through it trying to take down the Rays, and really struggled against their bevy of fastball-slider two-pitch guys. It’s not going to be much easier against Michael Pineda who, while not great this year, does feature an effective fastball-slider combination. Those two pitches have been haunting Toronto and just may stymie these cooling bats once again.
Steven Matz has been good since the All-Star break, but his 3.97 ERA in September is likely a result of poor peripherals like a .357 xwOBA on contact, which indicated a slight regression was coming.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is theglt13) and I may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
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