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Friday is absolutely packed with games, with 15 taking place tonight starting at 7:05 p.m. ET. We have lots to discuss so let’s take a look.
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Biggest Moneyline Favorite
Note: This section highlights the pitcher whose team is the largest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.
David Robertson, $4,000, Tampa Bay Rays (-220) vs. Miami Marlins (+220) -- So let me start off by saying, do NOT play Robertson in DFS tonight. This is the cheapest I think I’ve seen the biggest favorite on the night and Robertson is expected to open this give. The Rays are rolling with a bullpen game tonight against the Marlins, who are expected to start Edward Cabrera ($6,200). Robertson has thrown a total of eight innings and has allowed six runs (five earned) on nine hits and 13 strikeouts. Not worth the price of admission by any means.
As for the Rays offense against Cabrera, they’re in a great spot against a pitcher that’s struggled immensely in his 20 1/3 innings in the majors. After being called up, he’s posted a 5.31 ERA and a 7.30 FIP. He’s shown incredible strikeout upside in the minors but his early struggles haven’t allowed that ability to show as of yet. Cabrera is also struggling with his command, posting a 5.7 BB/9. Aside from his debut when he tossed 6 1/3 innings, we haven’t seen him throw more than four innings since, so it’s likely we get an early dose of the Marlins bullpen. They’ve been quite good in the month of September, with a team 3.93 FIP, a 9.2 K/9 and a 0.9 HR/9. I like the Rays to win this game but I don’t think this will be an overly high scoring game and would side with the under 9 runs instead of the bloated moneyline.
Highest Projected Total
San Francisco Giants (-195; 6.5 runs) at Colorado Rockies (+165; 4.5 runs) 12 runs -- A massive total at Coors Field tonight, which hasn’t exactly gone well for over bettors over the course of the season. I’ve said this a million times but we’ll maybe it a million and one with this next sentence. The over at Coors Field has not been profitable this season. It’s hit just 45.2% of the time, which is one of the lowest amongst all ballparks in the league. They’ve played 10 games at home in September and seen the over go 5-5. The earlier series against the Giants did go 2-1 but that’s also because the Giants posted 10 and 12 runs themselves. That’s the fear here once agains for under plays, which is what I’m on.
Alex Wood ($8,400) has done his job to stave off the Rockies offense in three different starts, holding them to just six runs on 14 hits in 17 2/3 innings. Each start, one of which came at Coors, he’s allowed exactly two runs each time. Wood has continued to be one of their better starters and I don’t see how tonight would be any different. The numbers indicate it as well, with the Rockies tabbed with a 4.5 run total. Peter Lambert ($4,900) will be activated off the IL and make his first start since 2019. He’s had mixed results during his rehab starts, which saw him pitch at three different levels. When we last saw him in the majors, Lambert had a 7.25 ERA to go with a 5.97 FIP and only a 5.7 K/9. Between that and the Rockies bullpen issues, the Giants 6.5 run total still looks appealing for the over. I’m just not convinced the Rockies will do enough to get this game over 12 runs.
The only game that has some concern is the New York Yankees at Boston Red Sox. Rain is in the forecast but doesn’t seem enough to cause any big disruptions.
Splits to Start
Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters
Worst vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Tylor Megill, .413, 6.19
Casey Mize, .355, 6.01
Zach Davies, .360, 5.95
Best vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Corbin Burnes, .250, 1.55
Nathan Eovaldi, .274, 2.25
Logan Gilbert, .281, 2.93
Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters
Worst vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Alex Wells, .449, 8.52
Zack Greinke, .352, 5.33
Paolo Espino, .309, 5.04
Best vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Corbin Burnes, .210, 1.61
Gerrit Cole, .248, 2.59
Tylor Megill, .255, 2.94
Pitcher to Build Around
Max Fried, Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres, $9,200 -- It’s hard to not want to target against the Padres, who have been in a free fall the entire month of September. They’ve already been eliminated from the NL West and are six games back of the second Wild Card spot, which is held by a team that has won 12 in a row. Fried should be considered one of the top options on this slate against a team who against lefties has just a .318 wOBA, a .152 ISO, a 101 wRC+ and a 21.4% K%. Fried is someone who consistently goes deep into games and has thrown at least six innings in 10 straight starts. With some big names taking the hill tonight, Fried is still one of my favorite options.
Stud Hitter to Pay For
Corey Seager, Los Angeles Dodgers at Arizona Diamondbacks, $4,800 -- I really like the Dodgers tonight going up against the D-backs and specifically Humberto Castellanos ($5,300). He hasn’t thrown a ton of innings at the major league level this season but against lefties, he’s been hit quite hard. Against them, he has a .360 wOBA, a 5.69 FIP, a 1.8 H/9 and only a 5.2 K/9. Seager has had himself a really solid month of September .318 wOBA, a .152 ISO, a 101 wRC+ and a 21.4% K%. He, along with a Dodgers stack, will be what I’m looking to target on this slate.
Save Big by Drafting
Nick Gordon, Minnesota Twins vs. Toronto Blue Jays, $2,200 -- Gordon has been smashing the ball for the Twins as of late and yet, is only seeing a $2,200 salary for tonight against Jose Berrios ($9,500). The numbers against lefties for Berrios are appealing if you’re looking to use Gordon has a cheap bat, as he’s been tagged with a .338 wOBA, a 4.17 FIP and a 1.5 HR/9. As for Gordon, he’s hitting almost everything that comes his way, which is why he’s averaging 15.8 (!) DKFP over his last five games, which includes two doubles, a home run, eight RBIs and three runs scored.
All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
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