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Not a whole lot of MLB action on Monday, and most of it’s in the early afternoon. But, there are a couple ways to attack the two later games via DraftKings Sportsbook; here’s how.
If you want to sweat out these picks with me, follow me on Twitter: @Nick_Friar.
Washington Nationals at Colorado Rockies
Nationals over 4.5 runs scored -130
German Marquez over 0.5 home runs allowed -110
The Nationals only pulled off one win in their four-game set vs. the Reds, but they still managed to put some runs up on the board throughout their trip to Cincinnati. Washington’s two highest-scoring showings in their last series came against right-handed pitching, which shouldn’t surprise anyone.
The Nats have been one of the toughest teams on right-handed pitching throughout September, even though they gave up on 2021 a while ago. And German Marquez already knows what this lineup is capable of, having faced them on Sept. 17 at Nationals Park -- which isn’t a cakewalk for pitchers, but it still isn’t Coors Field.
While Rockies pitchers tend to pitch well in Denver, relative to visiting pitchers, Marquez has a 5.18 FIP and 4.61 ERA at home in the second half. As for Colorado’s relievers, they haven’t been as bad as Washington’s bullpen this month, but they haven’t been all that great, either.
When it comes to Marquez’s home runs allowed prop: It’s known he’s a ground-ball pitcher, and he’s only given up a homer at Coors in seven of his 17 home starts in 2021. But, five of the Coors outings in which he’s surrendered a home run have come in the second half. Given his 2021 HR/9 (1.1) is right around his career mark (1.2), this regression was in order.
Juan Soto hasn’t gone deep in three games, so why not do so in his first game at Coors since he dented more than a few baseballs in the Home Run Derby? Plus, he's facing a fellow 2021 NL All-Star who’s looked like anything but that in the second half.
Seattle Mariners vs. Oakland Athletics
First Five Innings Mariners over 1.5 runs -145
Mariners ML -115
The Mariners haven’t posted good numbers against left-handed pitching throughout September, yet they tagged Cole Irvin for three runs over five innings when they ran into him on Sep. 22. That’s pretty much how it’s worked all season: Seattle can’t hit lefties, and they hit Irvin hard.
The Oakland left-hander has faced Seattle four times in 2021, giving up three or more runs each time. Only once did he make it through five full innings -- his last start (Sept. 22), in which he gave up exactly three earned runs over five frames.
While the offense takes care of Irvin, Chris Flexen should be able to do what he typically does vs. Oakland. After the A’s hit him hard in their first meeting on June 2, the Seattle right-hander has put together three strong starts vs. Oakland. He even managed to punch out eight when he last saw the A’s — a lineup that doesn’t K much against righties.
Oakland hasn’t been bad against right-handed pitching this month, but Flexen has pretty much been the definition of solid in 2021. He’s had a few hiccups, but he almost always gives Seattle a good chance at a win -- which probably has something to do with the Mariners winning 20 of his 29 starts this season.
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