How would the postseason look right now?

August 25th, 2020

With the Trade Deadline coming up on Monday, it’s ever clearer that the postseason is just around the corner. The end of every season creeps up on you every year. But it really has this year.

That means it’s time to begin seriously thinking about the playoff chase. So, every week until the season is over, we’ll be taking a look each Tuesday at what the playoffs would look like if the season ended that very day. It’ll be here before you know it.

The top three seeds (Nos. 1-3) in each league will go to the three division winners (East, Central, West) in order of record.

The next three seeds (Nos. 4-6) will go to the three teams that finish in second place in their division, in order of record.

The final two seeds (Nos. 7-8) will go to the two teams with the next best records, regardless of division and division standing. Because the first- and second-place teams in each division automatically advance to October, the 7 and 8 seeds are the actual “Wild Card teams.”

Also, any ties will be broken mathematically, rather than with tiebreaker games. That could require head-to-head-matchup records, or division records, or, depending on what ends up happening with the Cardinals, simple winning percentage. And remember: These first series are three games, all at the higher seed’s home field, win two to advance. What a weekend that’s going to be.

AMERICAN LEAGUE

No. 1 A’s (last week: 2) vs. No. 8 Blue Jays (last week: NR)

The No. 1 seed has to be decided by a tiebreaker this week, and, as you’ll see in a moment, there’s a lot of winning-percentage weirdness in the AL this week. The A’s and Twins are both 20-10, and, according to MLB rules, tiebreakers are resolved by “intradivision record.” The A’s are 15-6 in the AL West; the Twins are 11-7 in the AL Central. So the A’s get the nod, for now. The Blue Jays make their first appearance in this rankings, and, considering the emergence of the White Sox, you can make an argument that the No. 8 spot may be the only one up for grabs right now, between the Jays and … well, the rest of the AL.

No. 2 Twins (last week: 3) vs. No. 7 White Sox (last week: 8)

Few teams broke out more in the last week than the White Sox, whose winning streak (ended Monday night) launched them into a tie with Cleveland for second place. (The Indians stay ahead of the Sox because they’re up, 4-2, in head-to-head games this year.) This series would, of course, be a homer hitter’s paradise, with the team that broke the single-season home run record last year facing the club that leads the AL in them this year.

No. 3 Yankees (last week: 1) vs. No. 6 Astros (last week: 6)

So, here’s where it gets a little confusing. Technically speaking, the Yankees are actually a half-game behind the Rays in the standings. But that’s because they’ve played five fewer games than Tampa Bay. The rules say that winning percentage is all that matters, and the Yankees have a .640 winning percentage, ahead of Tampa Bay’s .633. The number-of-games issue should be sorted out by the end of the year, but at this point of the shortened season, it sure looks odd. A showdown between the Yankees and Astros, who, uh, have quite a contentious postseason history, would add all sorts of oomph to the Wild Card round.

No. 4 Rays (last week: 4) vs. No. 5 Indians (last week: 5)

The Rays are stuck here until the winning-percentage issue works itself out. This is a rematch of the 2013 American League Wild-Card Game -- surprisingly, the only time these teams have faced each other in the postseason -- and features two teams who have been on the cusp several times over the last decade-plus but never quite broken through. (And the Yankees likely await whoever wins.) The Indians may be one of the most active teams at the Trade Deadline -- in one direction or the other -- and now they’re in danger of being passed by the hard-charging White Sox.

NATIONAL LEAGUE

No. 1 Dodgers (last week: 4) vs. No. 8 Giants (last week: NR)
It seems a pretty good bet that the Dodgers are going to stay in this spot, and the only real question is which team ends up awarded with the final playoff spot to face them, getting the Charlotte-Hornets-against-the-Jordan-Bulls role. The Giants win that right this week, barely edging the Mets, Nationals, Phillies, Brewers and D-backs. The difference from the NBA is that an inferior baseball team is going to beat an incredible baseball team two out of three times a lot more often than an inferior basketball team is going to beat an incredible one. Can you imagine the bragging rights Giants fans would forever have if they, years earlier than anyone considered them real contenders, stopped maybe the best Dodgers team ever right in its tracks?

No. 2 Cubs (last week: 1) vs. No. 7 Rockies (last week: 4)

The Rockies had a miserable week, and they’re our biggest droppers. Had they not won Monday night, they would be out of the playoffs entirely. Instead, they’re on pace to travel to Wrigley Field to face the team they knocked out of the playoffs in the Wild Card Game two years ago. You can be assured that the veteran Cubs would have plenty of motivation after losing that extra-inning game in 2018, the most recent postseason game the Cubs have played.

No. 3 Braves (last week: 3) vs. No. 6 Marlins (last week: 5)

The Marlins are still hanging around, and they gained a game on the Braves on Monday, yanking Atlanta back to earth a bit when the defending division champs were in danger of pulling away in the NL East. This is your reminder that every single time the Marlins have ever made the postseason, they have won the World Series.

No. 4 Padres (last week: 8) vs. No. 5 Cardinals (last week: NR)

And look who’s back. Yep, the Cardinals, who are 8-5 since coming out of quarantine and have taken over second place in the NL Central: They’re actually 2 1/2 games up on third-place Milwaukee. St. Louis would end up facing off with the hottest, most purely exciting team in baseball in San Diego, where Fernando Tatis Jr.’s jaw-dropping awesomeness every night is actually kind of disguising resurgent years from Will Myers, Eric Hosmer and Manny Machado. Padres fans have to be groaning a little bit to run into the Cardinals in the first round. San Diego has only made two postseason appearances since reaching the 1998 World Series: NLDS losses in 2005 and ‘06 … both to the Cardinals. (The Friars also lost to the Cards in 1996 as well.)

This is not how the playoffs will end up panning out, of course. But that they could is a reminder of how wild this season is … how wild it is now. I’ll see you again in a week with some surely equally nonsensical, yet very possible, matchups.