What’s the panic level for these 7 slow-starting teams?

April 10th, 2024

It is too early to be too worried about a slow start. On April 10 of last season, the Astros, Phillies and Marlins were all under .500, and they all made the playoffs. It’s absurdly early to panic.

Except … teams like the Cardinals, Giants and Mariners all had playoff hopes going into 2023, but they were all under .500 on April 10 last season, and it turned out that it wasn’t just a bad start. They were going to end up disappointing all year. So maybe it’s not too early to panic.

So, which is it? Let’s take some early guesses by looking at seven teams who came into this season with high expectations but are struggling. Here is a breakdown of each of these clubs, listed in ascending order of what we believe their “panic level” (on a scale of one to 10) should be at this point.

Astros (4-8)

Preseason expectations: Just an eighth consecutive American League Championship Series appearance, no big deal.

What has gone wrong: Really, just a miserable four-game series to start the season against the Yankees, a team they have traditionally hammered but one that tormented the Astros nightly during Opening Week. It’s tough to start the year 0-4, but Houston has slowly started to pull itself out of that hole. On the other hand, the pitching injuries, including a worrisome new one from Framber Valdez that led to him being placed on the 15-day IL with left elbow inflammation, augur potential storm clouds.

Signs of hope: The hitting is fine. Yordan Alvarez is smacking a line drive at someone, somewhere, right now, so you'd better duck -- and Ronel Blanco has come out of nowhere to be an electric early-season surprise. Also, the Rangers and the Mariners haven’t exactly stormed out of the gate in the AL West, either.

Panic level -- 2 of 10: Everything you’re used to seeing from Houston is all still there. If they had even sneaked out one win against the Yankees, we wouldn’t be sweating anything right now. They need Valdez to be healthy, but otherwise, the Astros are going to be just fine.

D-backs (5-7)

Preseason expectations: Well, they went to the World Series last year, but that didn’t have them sitting on their laurels. If anything, they added like a team that knew it had considerable work to do.

What has gone wrong: Injuries haven’t helped: Eduardo Rodriguez and Paul Sewald are key arms on this team who haven’t pitched yet this season. (Nor has late-spring acquisition Jordan Montgomery, for that matter.) Also, 2023 NL Rookie of the Year Corbin Carroll hasn’t really gotten going.

Signs of hope: Carroll is going to get going. When Montgomery and Rodriguez get back in the rotation, it’s going to be one of the best in the National League. Also, there is no shame in getting swept in Atlanta, as the D-backs did over the weekend. While Arizona had lost five consecutive games before snapping that skid on Tuesday, those came by eight total runs, with two defeats in extra innings.

Panic level -- 3 of 10: The D-backs are certainly not favorites to return to the World Series. But even with this record, it’s clear: This team is better than the one that just went to the World Series.

Twins (3-6)

Preseason expectations: Even with some intriguing moves from the Tigers and Royals and the loss of Sonny Gray, the Twins were the clear favorite in the AL Central.

What has gone wrong: The offense is still trying to get the car started. Minnesota has a collective .593 OPS, the second-worst mark in baseball, and it has somehow only hit seven home runs. The Twins are also struggling with runners in scoring position. In five of the team’s six losses, it scored no more than two runs.

Signs of hope: Carlos Correa has been an offensive bright spot, and the Twins certainly need him to remain so. Byron Buxton is healthy, and he is back to making spectacular things happen in center field. This division remains … well, let’s call it “competitive.”

Panic level -- 3 of 10: The Guardians are off to a fast start, but Shane Bieber is now out for the season, and the Tigers are already starting to slow down. The Twins have a lot of problems to fix, but nothing might fix them faster than being in the AL Central.

Giants (4-8)

Preseason expectations: They certainly were active, signing Blake Snell, Matt Chapman, Jung Hoo Lee, Jorge Soler, Jordan Hicks and Nick Ahmed. No team makes that many moves without thinking it is time to make a move up the standings.

What has gone wrong: Most of baseball scoffed when the Giants signed Hicks and announced he’d be a starter rather than a reliever, but he has been one of the best pitchers in baseball so far, allowing just one run across his two starts. It’s the rest of the rotation that has been a problem: Logan Webb, Kyle Harrison, Keaton Winn, Daulton Jefferies and even Snell (in his one start) have been roughed up night in and night out. The worst part: San Francisco has already lost six times to the Dodgers and Padres.

Signs of hope: Hicks looks legitimately exciting, and there’s too much talent in that rotation for it to produce like this all year, or even for much longer. Also, Michael Conforto is playing like an All-Star right now.

Panic level -- 4 of 10: The NL West provides little margin for error. It already looks like everybody’s playing for a Wild Card spot behind the Dodgers -- but as long as the rotation ends up locking into place, the Giants should still be in this until the end.

Cardinals (6-6)

Preseason expectations: At the very least, an improvement on a wretched last-place finish in 2023. And it wasn’t unreasonable to think this team could contend for an NL Central title, as most projection systems had them as the favorites.

What has gone wrong: Shaky defense and ragged starting pitching derailed the team in 2023, and those areas were the Cardinals’ focus this offseason. But while the defense has been excellent so far in 2024, and the starting pitching has been at least slightly better, the offense has dragged them down. St. Louis is hitting .218 as a team and has hit just nine homers in 12 games. The Cardinals' stars have been the primary culprits: Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt have just one homer between them and are hitting a combined .215.

Signs of hope: The rotation has at least been stable -- Steven Matz, in particular, has looked excellent -- and Sonny Gray was tremendous in his first start on Tuesday. And the defense, led by rookies Masyn Winn and Victor Scott II, looks far better. The offense has to wake up eventually, and when it does, the two major issues from 2023 look to have made real improvements.

Panic level -- 5 of 10: The NL Central appears to be better and deeper than it has in quite a while, which increases the level of difficulty here. But even with the offensive problems, this team looks considerably sharper than it did last season, across the board. There is a serious issue if Arenado and Goldschmidt continue their decline, however.

Mariners (4-8)

Preseason expectations: As usual, Seattle moved around a whole lot of pieces in the offseason, making marginal improvements in the hopes of better supporting Julio Rodríguez. But it was the Mariners' rotation, which they mostly kept together, that was supposed to get them back to the postseason.

What has gone wrong: Well, president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto was using the term “DEFCON 1” in his Opening Weekend press conference, which is not what you want to hear (even if he was saying the Mariners don’t feel they are at that state of maximum concern). The rotation has been the major issue, with Luis Castillo still searching for usual form, George Kirby surprisingly wobbly and Emerson Hancock getting drilled in his first two starts. Also, Rodríguez is somehow hitting .196.

Signs of hope: If Julio is hitting .196 at the end of the season, everything anyone has ever understood about baseball is wrong. That rotation can’t possibly pitch like that for much longer either … can it?

Panic level -- 7 of 10: It helps that no one else in the AL West is pulling away, but the Mariners are springing more leaks than anyone might have reasonably expected in the early going. It might not be DEFCON 1. But DEFCON 3? Probably.

Marlins (1-11)

Preseason expectations: A front-office shakeup raised some eyebrows, but this was still a team with the reigning NL Manager of the Year (Skip Schumaker), a couple of lineup building blocks in Luis Arraez and Jazz Chisholm Jr. and a lot of young pitching talent. This was a playoff team last year, with the hope it could become one again this year.

What has gone wrong: You name it. An 0-9 start had everything you’re trying to avoid: Bullpen implosions, poor starting pitching, anemic hitting and a season-ending injury to one of your best young pitchers. The Marlins are looking for the reset button already.

Signs of hope: Chisholm looks better, and most importantly healthier, than he did at any point in 2023. He could have the breakout year most thought was happening last year. But otherwise? It’s a grim start, people.

Panic level -- 10 of 10: No previous team has ever lost more than six consecutive games to begin a season and rallied to make the playoffs. The Marlins, who have dropped the first two games against the Yankees, are also staring down series against the Braves (twice), Giants and Cubs over the next two weeks, which is not what you want when you desperately need to turn things around.