5 feisty teams that have improved early in '22

May 6th, 2022

The standings can be discouraging at first glance. It can take the wind out of you when you look up and see that your team has lost more than it has won, that it’s already more games out of first than you realized, that it feels like it’s already getting late early. This is especially true if not that much was expected of your team in the offseason: It can seem like stasis, like your spot in the standings was already fated.

But if you look closer, there are reasons for hope. For five teams that are at .500 or below -- five teams that many people predicted to finish under .500, and perhaps at the bottom of their divisions -- there are signs of life, reasons to believe in them. Maybe not for this season, but for the future. They may have lots of teams ahead of them in the standings. But these teams are a little better than meets the eye. Listed below in order of early-season surprise factor.

1. D-backs
We’re all still a little confused about what was going on with Madison Bumgarner and that umpire as you are. (Bumgarner, considering how fiery he can be, handled the situation about 85 percent more calmly than we might have expected -- or how we might have handled it.) But if you haven’t looked at Bumgarner’s stats lately, you might not have noticed that he looks a lot more like the Bumgarner you remember.

Bumgarner has a 1.50 ERA in six starts, and while that number is a little lower than it probably should be (his FIP is 4.85), it’s a sign of the general team strength of these D-backs: their starting pitching. Merrill Kelly has a 1.27 ERA in five starts, and Zac Gallen looks like the pitcher we all thought he was a couple of years ago, putting together a 1.27 ERA in four starts. (Even Zach Davies and Humberto Castellanos have been perfectly decent).

The offense still has its issues outside of Pavin Smith and an emergent Daulton Varsho, but when you look at that rotation, it’s no wonder the D-backs are at 13-13. That’s the good news. The bad? Well, Arizona is in the National League West, so that 13-13 has it in last place.

2. Marlins
The Marlins, like everyone else in the NL East, are looking up at the Mets, who have emerged as the early front-runner. But allotting for the fact that we’re all waiting for Atlanta to make a run, Miami might end up the best of those non-Mets teams by the end of the year. One main reason is the starting pitching we were all excited about heading into the season, though that excellence is taking a different form than we might have expected.

Sandy Alcantara has been as solid as he always is, and Jesús Luzardo looks like he has found his place after struggling in Oakland. But the true star has been Pablo López, who has emerged as a Cy Young-level ace so far.

If the Marlins can get Trevor Rogers and Elieser Hernandez going, this still could be the best rotation in the division. But they’ve got a new ace in the hole offensively: Jazz Chisholm Jr., who has been a sneaky NL MVP Award candidate so far, putting up an incredible .324/.373/.635 line. He has five doubles, three triples, four homers, six stolen bases and the hearts of every budding Marlins fan. He’s becoming the sort of offensive player you can build a whole roster around ... and exactly what Miami needed. Keep an eye on this team moving forward.

3. Pirates
Perhaps the most impressive thing about the Pirates so far is that they’re in third place in the NL Central ... and they haven’t even gotten to play the Reds yet! (They finally get four with them this weekend.) Pittsburgh was expected to be right down there in the bottom of the division with Cincinnati this year, and it might well end up there. The Pirates' runs scored/runs allowed ratio is that of an 8-16 team, rather than a 10-14 one.

But there are some good signs here. Ke’Bryan Hayes hasn’t hit for much power, but he’s getting on base like a star and playing his transcendent defense at third base. Daniel Vogelbach is showing the world exactly what an NL designated hitter can look like.

The Pirates’ biggest strength has been their shutdown bullpen, led by David Bednar, but also including Dillon Peters (16 2/3 scoreless innings so far) and Wil Crowe. Manager Derek Shelton has been surprisingly fluid and flexible with how he uses that bullpen, too, often with no set roles. Pittsburgh needs to win its close games, and that bullpen is the reason it's been doing so.

4. Rangers
Five days ago, we might not have considered putting the Rangers on this list. They were 6-14, in last place in the American League West and trying to figure out exactly why their two big free-agent stars (Corey Seager and Marcus Semien) had forgotten how to hit. They still haven’t figured out the Semien part -- it is downright bizarre to see the perpetual MVP candidate slugging .242 -- but they just rattled off a four-game win streak (against the Braves and Phillies, no less) that makes you want to keep an eye on them.

Texas is a team that is just looking for pieces that will stick moving forward, or help it bring in someone who will, and it might have one in Martín Pérez, who has been terrific so far and matched Philadelphia's Zack Wheeler pitch for pitch on Wednesday night.

Even more encouraging has been Dane Dunning, who has upped his strikeout rate, dropped his walk rate and is reaping the benefits. Even with the additions of Seager, Semien, Kole Calhoun and Mitch Garver, their best hitter might be catcher Jonah Heim, who has a 1.153 OPS in 42 plate appearances. The Rangers have a lot to figure out, but you can see flashes of the future here ... and some impressive flashes right here in the present as well.

5. Cubs
A recent skid has dropped the Cubs to 9-15 and fourth place in the NL Central, and it sure looks like this division is going to be a two-team race between the Brewers and Cardinals. But there are plenty of reasons to think the Cubs not only are going to climb their way up to third, but also show a quicker improvement over the next couple of seasons than many might have expected.

First and foremost, Seiya Suzuki already looks like one of the best free-agent signings of the offseason. Even as he has come back to Earth after a torrid start, he’s still slugging .475 and charming every Wrigley fan he meets. But this offense has more than him.

Patrick Wisdom has held onto most of his gains from last year -- he could hit 35 homers this season -- and Nico Hoerner looks like a useful piece for plenty of years moving forward. Nick Madrigal and Frank Schwindel haven’t gotten going yet, but Ian Happ, after years of inconsistency, looks like an All-Star in the making. The pitching still has issues, but the Cubs, for the first time in a while, look pointed in the right direction.