7 big questions as clock ticks down to Deadline
Mark Feinsand
@feinsandWelcome to the busiest day on the baseball calendar. The Trade Deadline is here.
Well, it won’t be here until 6 p.m. ET, but with each tick of the clock, teams around the Majors will feel more urgency to get deals done.
What will the final hours bring? Here are seven key questions to consider as the Trade Deadline draws near.
Who will win the Soto sweepstakes?
The $500 million elephant in the room, Juan Soto’s future will be the most closely watched storyline on Deadline day.
The Nationals have been listening to interested parties for more than two weeks after Soto turned down a 15-year, $440 million extension offer. But whether Soto actually gets moved by 6 p.m. Tuesday remains to be seen, leaving the immediate future of one of the game’s best hitters in limbo.
The Yankees seemingly took themselves out of the running after trading for Andrew Benintendi, while the Mariners’ acquisition of Luis Castillo for a package including three of their top five prospects left Seattle without the capital to compete for Soto.
That leaves the Padres, Cardinals and Dodgers as the three most likely destinations for Soto, who is under club control through the end of the 2024 season.
“San Diego feels like the one that would go all-in,” a National League executive said. “[General manager A.J.] Preller is all about making big moves, and this would be the biggest.”
The Padres’ top three prospects -- OF Robert Hassell III, C Luis Campusano and OF James Wood -- are all highly regarded and included in MLB Pipeline’s Top 100 list, though the Nationals might not want Campusano after acquiring Keibert Ruiz from the Dodgers as their catcher of the future in last summer’s Max Scherzer/Trea Turner deal.
Young shortstops C.J. Abrams and Jackson Merrill could also be part of a package, as could left-hander MacKenzie Gore. San Diego has the pieces to make a deal work, even after sending four players to the Brewers on Monday for All-Star closer Josh Hader.
The Cardinals and Dodgers also have enough young talent to make a competitive bid for Soto and remain firmly in the mix, making it a three-team race -- one that might not actually have a finish line on Tuesday.
Will the Cubs finally start selling?
After trading Chris Martin to the Dodgers on Saturday for utility man Zach McKinstry, the Cubs made another deal Monday, sending controllable reliever Scott Effross to the Yankees for pitching prospect Hayden Wesneski.
Considering that the Cubs have been considered one of the biggest potential sellers in the league this summer, it could be a wild day in the Windy City as the Deadline approaches.
Catcher Willson Contreras and closer David Robertson will both be free agents at the end of the season, and both players could find themselves headed to New York, as the Mets have a need at both positions. Left fielder Ian Happ and reliever Mychal Givens, who are both under club control through 2023, could also be on the move.
That Contreras hasn’t been traded yet is somewhat surprising as it’s seemed like a foregone conclusion that he was on his way out of Chicago. The Astros -- one of the contenders that had been looking for catching help -- acquired Christian Vázquez from the Red Sox on Monday, taking them out on Contreras.
Aside from the Mets, the other contenders that could be in the market for catching help include the Rays, Padres, Guardians, Cardinals and Twins. Contreras could also see at-bats with a new team in the DH role.
Will Giants buy, sell or stand pat?
One team that has been conspicuously quiet to this point is the Giants, who dropped seven in a row after the All-Star break, then won three of five before falling to the Dodgers in Monday's series opener.
Carlos Rodón can opt out of his contract at the end of the season, while Joc Pederson and Brandon Belt are on expiring contracts, as well. All three have been rumored to be trade candidates, but with their Wild Card deficit currently at just 4 1/2 games, the Giants have been giving off vibes that they would be holding on to their impending free agents.
A rival executive said Monday that they were under the impression that Rodón was not going to be moved, a sign the Giants are going to try making the postseason rather than selling off pieces for younger talent.
Will the Red Sox continue to sell … and buy?
The most notable two-way player in the Majors on Monday wasn’t Shohei Ohtani; it was Chaim Bloom, the Red Sox chief baseball officer who acted as both a buyer (Tommy Pham, Reese McGuire) and seller (Christian Vázquez, Jake Diekman) while making three trades on Monday.
Boston moved to .500 at 52-52 with a win Monday, leaving the Red Sox just three games out of an AL Wild Card spot with 58 games remaining on the schedule.
“We’re still hoping to make the postseason,” Bloom said Monday night. “Also want to make sure we’re doing what’s best for the organization.”
Bloom has said the Sox are not trading Rafael Devers (under control through 2023) or Xander Bogaerts, who can opt out of his contract at the end of the season, but Boston could move other impending free agents including J.D. Martinez, Nathan Eovaldi, Enrique Hernández and Michael Wacha, while trying to add controllable pieces for 2023 and beyond.
With top starters off the market, who’s left?
As of Monday morning, Castillo was the only notable starting pitcher to be traded this summer.
That changed in a hurry, starting with the Yankees’ acquisition of Frankie Montas from the Athletics, who received four prospects from New York for the right-hander. With the two best starters off the market, the Cardinals jumped into the fray Monday night, agreeing to a four-player deal that landed Pirates left-hander José Quintana in St. Louis. The Braves also struck late Monday, reportedly acquiring Jake Odorizzi from the Astros for Will Smith, a much-needed lefty reliever.
So which starting pitchers are still available for rotation-needy teams such as the Dodgers, Twins, Blue Jays, Brewers and Phillies?
Tyler Mahle of the Reds is the best arm that is expected to be moved, though if the Giants change course and shop Rodón or the Red Sox decide to move Eovaldi, they would become the most desirable starters on the market.
Marlins right-hander Pablo López should bring back a haul for Miami if he’s traded -- the Dodgers are said to be very interested -- but with two-plus years of club control, he could be dealt after the season. Ditto for controllable arms Zach Plesac (Guardians) and José Urquidy (Astros).
Noah Syndergaard (Angels) headlines a group of rental starters that includes Jordan Lyles (Orioles), Drew Smyly (Cubs) and Chad Kuhl (Rockies), though none are likely to bring back sizeable returns.
And in the bullpen?
The Padres’ acquisition of Hader on Monday was a bombshell, as the Brewers moved their four-time All-Star for a four-player package that included Taylor Rogers, Dinelson Lamet and a pair of prospects.
The Yankees also added a pair of relievers Monday, acquiring Effross from the Cubs, then landing Lou Trivino as part of the Montas deal. Other relievers dealt Monday included Chris Stratton (Pirates to Cardinals), Matt Bush (Rangers to Brewers) and Jake Diekman (Red Sox to White Sox).
That’s not a very big list considering that more than a dozen teams are actively trying to upgrade their bullpens. Relievers could be flying at a fast and furious pace on Tuesday, led by rentals David Robertson (Cubs), Anthony Bass (Marlins), Alex Colomé (Rockies), Michael Fulmer (Tigers), Matt Moore (Rangers) and Carlos Estévez (Rockies).
Andrew Chafin, who can opt out of his contract after the season, is also a near-lock to be moved as the Tigers were gaining momentum toward a deal late Monday night.
Among relievers with at least one year of club control, All-Stars Gregory Soto (Tigers), David Bednar (Pirates) and Joe Mantiply (D-backs) have drawn significant interest, but their teams have no urgency to trade them unless they get a solid return.
Other bullpen arms that could move Tuesday include Scott Barlow (Royals), Mark Melancon (D-backs), Givens (Cubs) and Joe Jiménez (Tigers).
Which contender will ring the Bell?
Soto’s .893 OPS is the highest of any everyday player who could be traded on Tuesday, but the next-highest mark belongs to his Nationals teammate Josh Bell (.877, 12th in MLB).
Unlike Soto, who is under club control through 2024, Bell is slated to become a free agent at the end of the season, so it’s likely that he’ll be wearing a new uniform by the end of the day.
The switch-hitting slugger would fit into a number of contending lineups at either first base or DH, opening the door for myriad teams to take a run at him. The Astros addressed their first-base situation Monday with a trade for Trey Mancini, but the Mets, Red Sox, Brewers and Rays could all benefit from Bell’s offensive prowess.