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Trade Talk

The latest Eovaldi free-agent rumors

One of the best Trade Deadline additions any team made in 2018, Nathan Eovaldi posted a 3.33 ERA over 12 regular-season appearances (11 starts) with the Red Sox before shining in the postseason for the World Series champions. Having boosted his stock considerably, Eovaldi should draw significant interest on the free-agent market.

Below you will find a list of the latest news and rumors surrounding the right-hander.

One of the best Trade Deadline additions any team made in 2018, Nathan Eovaldi posted a 3.33 ERA over 12 regular-season appearances (11 starts) with the Red Sox before shining in the postseason for the World Series champions. Having boosted his stock considerably, Eovaldi should draw significant interest on the free-agent market.

Below you will find a list of the latest news and rumors surrounding the right-hander.

Will it be back to Boston for Eovaldi?
Nov. 14: When a team trades for an impending free agent midseason and both parties proceed to have undeniable success the rest of the way, well, it's easy to keep coming back to the conclusion that the two sides will reunite to see if they can't repeat what worked so well. Especially in the case of the Red Sox and Eovaldi, who was such a key ingredient in the club's World Series title.

No wonder, then, that the majority of MLB Network Radio's on-air talent predicts that Eovaldi will re-sign with the Red Sox.

Tweet from @MLBNetworkRadio: 🚨🚨 FREE AGENT PREDICTIONS 🚨🚨The @MLBNetworkRadio team says:Brantley ������ #BravesCorbin ������ #YankeesEovaldi ������ #RedSoxGrandal ������ #AstrosHapp ������ #YankeesHarper ������ #NationalsKeuchel ������ #NationalsKimbrel ������ #BravesMachado ������ #PhilliesPollock ������ #Mets

It does make sense in many ways, too. Not only did Eovaldi flourish with Boston -- he posted a 3.33 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP in 54 regular-season innings, then a 1.61 ERA and a 0.81 WHIP in 22 1/3 frames in the postseason -- but the flame-throwing right-hander also would provide a different look for a rotation that has a trio of southpaws in ace Chris Sale, David Price and Eduardo Rodriguez. Steady veteran Rick Porcello is the only righty in the projected rotation with any real big-league experience as a starting pitcher, and he's due to become a free agent after the 2019 season.

In other words, bringing back Eovaldi could be a move for next season and beyond when it comes Boston filling out its otherwise lefty-heavy rotation.

Eovaldi ranked fifth-best FA by Sporting News
Nov. 13: Eovaldi's postseason heroics assuredly helped his free-agent stock, but given how this market has long been touted to be one of the best in history, would it be a stretch to say that Eovaldi is among the five best players available? Ryan Fagan of Sporting News suggests as much in a list of 79 free agents he ranked recently, with Eovaldi coming in at No. 5, behind Bryce Harper, Manny Machado, Patrick Corbin and Josh Donaldson

"Eovaldi isn't just here because of his stellar World Series," Fagan writes. "He had similar dominant stretches in the regular season, and that type of triple-digit mph late in starts is intoxicating. And like Corbin, he's only 29."

Indeed, of 235 starting pitchers who threw a four-seam fastball in the sixth inning or beyond, Eovaldi's 96.9 mph average trailed only Luis Severino (98.0 mph) and Noah Syndergaard (97.0 mph), according to Statcast™. While Eovaldi likely won't be used in the capacity he was in the postseason -- coming out of the bullpen for both abbreviated and extended stretches -- Eovaldi showed that, even in a year that he came back from his Tommy John surgery, that he still possesses some of the game's most elite velocity for a starting pitcher.

Video: ALCS Gm5: Eovaldi fans Bregman with 101.6-mph heater

What does recent history say about the contract Eovaldi should expect?
Nov. 12: Eovaldi is one of the most intriguing arms on this offseason's market thanks to his postseason heroics, but even just a few months ago, when the hard-throwing right-hander was acquired by the Red Sox at the non-waiver Trade Deadline, he was a high-upside arm with electric stuff but was on pace to post an ERA over 4.00 for the fourth straight season. It was only after he moved to Boston and made various adjustments that he saw extended success and his stock soared down the stretch.

But as the Boston Globe's Alex Speier points out, that might simply have been considered overperformance in a small sample size in the past, but these days, with teams increasingly focused on the promise of future performance and potential, those few months of elite performance with the Red Sox will be enough to land him a lucrative contract.

But just how lucrative? Speier examines a pair of similar cases in the recent past -- Rich Hill of the Dodgers and Tyler Chatwood of the Cubs -- to estimate the dollar figure that Eovaldi might be looking at.

After the Red Sox signed Hill out of independent ball in 2015 and the left-hander posted a 1.55 ERA down the stretch, he landed a prove-it deal with Oakland and locked down a three-year, $48 million deal as a 36-year-old after the 2016 season given just over a year of proven success. Meanwhile, Chatwood landed a three-year, $38 million contract with the Cubs based on his relative youth and track record of success on the road, among other factors, despite his 4.69 ERA in his final year with the Rockies.

With Eovaldi a surer bet than Chatwood and the 28-year-old having pitched 111 innings in 2018, nearly identical to Hill's 110 1/3 successful innings in 2016, the precedents suggest that Eovaldi, eight years younger than Hill at the time, should be in line for a floor of three years and $40 million or four years and $52 million. And it's not hard to imagine Eovaldi approaching Hill's average annual value of $16 million per year despite his injury history, meaning that a best-case scenario could be around four years and $65 million.

Could this potential blockbuster trade add a surprise suitor for Eovaldi?
Nov. 11: It will likely take an offer of seismic proportions to convince the Cubs to part with star third baseman Kris Bryant. Could a package involving Noah Syndergaard do the trick?

SNY's Danny Abriano thinks that a swap of the hard-throwing Mets star for Chicago's former National League Most Valuable Player Award winner would make sense for both sides. And as he goes on to explain, if such a dramatic deal were to unfold, the impact could make ripples around the league, possibily even impacting the free-agency pursuits of high-end starters like Patrick Corbin and Eovaldi.

Why would it make sense for the Cubs? Abriano thinks that despite all of the high-profile names in Chicago's starting rotation, there is still a need for a true ace on the staff. He points to Jon Lester's diminishing numbers, Yu Darvish's inconsistent health and the inability of Jose Quintana and Kyle Hendricks to consistently pitch at an ace-caliber level as examples of why Syndergaard might be a good addition on the North Side.

Meanwhile, the Mets have a need for a right-handed power bat that could slot in at third base, and with New York reportedly not interested in pursuing Manny Machado, Bryant could offer a tantalizing alternative. Since Bryant hasn't yet hit free agency, if the Mets aren't willing to pay Bryce Harper or Machado to add a franchise-altering face, the Cubs third baseman could offer an outside-the-box solution.

With that said, if the Mets felt confident enough in Bryant's shoulder health to part with Syndergaard, they would likely seek a high-upside arm to bolster their rotation. Though Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco or James Paxton could make sense as trade options, the prospect cost of acquiring one of those arms -- in addition to whatever prospects the Mets might send to Chicago to sweeten the Bryant deal -- might be prohibitive.

So in that case, the Mets might join the fray for Corbin, Eovaldi, Dallas Keuchel or other top starters in free agency. Though the bidding for Corbin and Keuchel are expected to be pricey with the Yankees in tow, new Mets general manager Brodie Van Wagenen has expressed that New York remains in win-now mode, and it wouldn't be a surprise if the Mets were aggressive in free agency.

Could the Nationals be a dark-horse suitor for Eovaldi?
Nov. 10: While it's believed that the Red Sox are interested in bringing back free agent Eovaldi, the market for the right-hander could be robust. In fact, in an article for The Athletic (subscription required) on Thursday, Jim Bowden listed 14 teams that could be in on Eovaldi this offseason.

The Red Sox and the Yankees are on there, as are the rebuilding Reds and White Sox, who both are reportedly planning to spend aggressively in free agency to improve their pitching staffs.

Then there are the dark horse candidates, with the Nationals standing out as one of the more interesting possibilities.

Washington's primary focus is re-signing Bryce Harper, but if Harper departs, the club may not necessarily look for replacements on the free-agent market, as it has Juan Soto, Victor Robles, Adam Eaton and Michael A. Taylor in the fold. Instead, the Nats could use some of the resources they have earmarked for Harper to improve other areas of the roster, including the catching position and the rotation.

The Nationals already have a substantial amount invested in the starting staff, and they may want to avoid handing out another $100 million or more to a pitcher with Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg on the books, making Eovaldi a more likely target than Patrick Corbin or Dallas Keuchel.

Some GMs wary of Eovaldi's health history
Nov. 9: After raising his free-agent profile with a terrific postseason, Eovaldi was unsurprisingly one of the most talked about players at the General Managers Meetings this week.

However, the buzz wasn't all positive. Per's Mark Feinsand, a number of general managers appear to be somewhat wary about Eovaldi's health history, which includes two Tommy John surgeries. Feinsand predicts that will keep the right-hander from landing the same type of contract Patrick Corbin and Dallas Keuchel are expected to command.

Still, Feinsand writes that Eovaldi "looks to be in strong position to land a three- or four-year deal with an average annual value many estimate will be in the $15 million-$17 million range.

Nathan Eovaldi