This story was excerpted from AJ Cassavell's Padres Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.
SAN DIEGO -- The major needs in the Padres’ rotation are about to become crystal clear.
Both Dylan Cease and Michael King are expected to decline the one-year, $22.025 million qualifying offer today. The Padres would receive compensation in the form of Draft picks if they sign elsewhere. But losing Cease and King would leave a massive hole in the San Diego rotation.
So, how do the Padres replace them? Won’t be easy. But this organization has entered the offseason in dire need of starting pitching before (basically every offseason for the past five years -- and especially in 2021, '23 and '24).
Yet the Padres have consistently pieced together formidable rotations. So how do they do it this year?
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1) Quality innings from Musgrove
Yes, the Padres are losing Cease and King. They’re also getting back one of their most productive starters from the past few seasons. Joe Musgrove underwent Tommy John surgery in October 2024 and has mostly built his way back already.
The Padres will almost certainly slow-play his buildup in Spring Training. But Musgrove has averaged a 3.20 ERA, 146 strikeouts and 140 innings during his four seasons in San Diego.
If he can deliver that level of production -- which is no certainty, of course, Musgrove turns 33 in December and is coming off major surgery -- it would go a long way toward mitigating the losses of Cease and King.
2) Find the next Nick Pivetta (or Seth Lugo or Michael Wacha)
Within Pivetta’s first month in San Diego, it became abundantly clear that his four-year, $55 million contract would be a deal. Pivetta, who had never finished a season with a sub-4.00 ERA, posted career highs in innings (181 2/3), starts (33), strikeouts (190) and WHIP (0.99). He finished with a 2.87 ERA and a sixth-place finish for the NL Cy Young Award.
So, who’s the next Pivetta? Who’s the next unheralded starter the Padres can find in free agency and mold into a top-of-the-rotation arm -- the way they also did with Lugo and Wacha recently.
Given the exorbitant price tags, the Padres likely won’t be in the mix for the top free-agent starters. But they’re going to spend resources on a starting pitcher. And they’ll once again be looking for front-of-the-rotation upside. Pitching coach Ruben Niebla has a track record of maximizing it, after all.
3) Be wary of depleting the ’pen
Speaking of front-of-the-rotation upside … stuff-wise, Mason Miller and Adrian Morejon clearly have it.
Then again, they were two of the best relief pitchers in baseball last season. If the Padres were to transition either into a starting role, it comes with a major risk. Their bullpen is perhaps the best in baseball. But it’s already without closer Robert Suarez, who is now a free agent. By moving Miller and/or Morejon into the rotation, the Padres risk depleting a strength -- with no guarantees of success for either arm in the rotation.
“What we want to make sure, is that we don’t look up and have two mediocre units,” president of baseball operations A.J. Preller said of the rotation and bullpen.
Perhaps there are other candidates. David Morgan has been mentioned, given his arsenal, though he’s still relatively new to pitching in general and has thrived in relief. San Diego just brought back Kyle Hart on a one-year deal with a team option for 2027 -- but his stuff played way up in the bullpen.
The Padres have excelled lately in identifying the right candidates to shift from the bullpen to rotation. King, Lugo and Stephen Kolek come to mind. It’s imperative that if they make that decision again, that they get it right (again).
4) Fill in at the back in any way possible
Trades. Fringe free-agent signings. Non-roster invites. Prospect callups.
The Padres need to explore every avenue to fill out a back end of the rotation that was largely depleted at last year’s Trade Deadline.
Randy Vásquez emerged as a steady rotation presence in 2025. His progress in strike-throwing and missing bats is encouraging. Beyond Vásquez, the options are thin. JP Sears and Matt Waldron struggled. Kolek and Ryan Bergert were traded.
Can the Padres get a breakthrough season from right-hander Miguel Mendez, their No. 5 prospect? Can they use some lower-level pieces to find a more big league-ready option in a trade? Can they produce a viable rotation piece out of a cheaper free agent or a non-roster invitee to Spring Training?
The Padres have an awful lot of innings -- and, more importantly, production -- to replace. In a competitive starting-pitching market, they’ll need to look everywhere.