2 key questions for each NL East team entering 2022

April 1st, 2022

With the season, goodness, only days away now, it’s time to start previewing some divisions. While allowing for the fact that there are still surely plenty of moves to be made, we have a pretty good idea, at this point, what teams will generally look like. Today, we look at the National League East.

With the Braves’ World Series win last year -- that really happened, Braves fans! -- four of the NL East’s five teams have won a World Series in the last 25 years. No other division can say that. And the fifth one is perhaps the most widely known, the most desperate and the most urgent this offseason, with an owner who would like very much to make that a 5-for-5 stat. There’s so much long-standing beef in this division that I can never quite keep track of who is the primary rivalry for who anymore. I just assume they’re all after each other, all of the time.

But if you want big names, I’m not sure you can do better than this division. Are more than half of the most famous, accomplished players in baseball in this division? I would argue that they are. This division always gets a little rowdy. This year might eclipse them all.

Let's take a look at all five teams. My standings prediction is below that.

Braves

1. How different will it feel without Freddie around?

Look, in a vacuum, you can make a good argument for the Braves’ decision to let leave and to replace him with  from the A’s. Olson is younger, (a little) cheaper and might have been a better hitter over the last few years. But still: Freddie Freeman is the Braves. Or at least was. This is a team that won the World Series last year, that will now look quite different, and not just at first base. If the Braves get off to a slow start, or if heaven forbid Olson does, will it feel like a vibe shift in Cobb County?

2. How quickly can Acuña come back and be Acuña?

Lost in all the World Series excitement was the fact that the team’s best young player -- one of the best young players in baseball, for crying out loud -- wasn’t there for any of it. I wasn’t the only person who wrote off the Braves when  went down in July, but just because the Braves went on a historic run after that doesn’t mean he’s not of vital importance to the team moving forward. He remains the one guy on this roster with MVP-level talent, and he can carry a team for weeks on end. He is scheduled to come back in May. Will he be Acuña by then? Will it take until June? The Braves’ season may depend on it.

Marlins

1. How good can this rotation be?

There are precious few teams in baseball that wouldn’t want the Marlins’ rotation. They have four terrific pitchers who are just tapping into their talent -- the oldest one of the foursome of , , and is Hernandez, who is only 26 -- and should be primed to take big steps forward in innings this year (other than Alcantara, who has thrown the eighth-most innings in baseball over the last three seasons). And the fifth starter is , considered one of the best prospects in baseball just a couple of years ago. Counting on young pitching is always tempting fate. But most young pitching isn’t like this.

2. Will they add hitters if they’re in the race late?

was a smart addition earlier this month: He instantly slots in the middle of the Marlins lineup and, in many ways, feels like the ideal Marlin. But the team has a lot of empty calories in that lineup, big homer/low OBP guys like , Jesus Sanchez, , even , who is still here and may never leave. , for all his skills, doesn’t get on base as much as you’d like from a leadoff man either. The pitching is good enough for this team to contend. But they need more from their offense. Where will they find it? Will they even look for it?

Mets

1. Can they keep those two aces healthy?

On Sunday, in a Spring Training game, the Mets started , who threw three innings, and finished with , who went the final six. You’ll never believe this, but the Mets did, in fact, win this game. Everything the Mets want to do this year starts with deGrom and Scherzer, the game’s most dominant and terrifying pitchers. Imagine having to face those two in a best-of-three, -five, or -seven series. But the Mets have to get there first, of course, and that requires keeping this 33-year-old and that 37-year-old healthy. deGrom, who only pitched 92 innings last year, underwent an MRI on Friday after feeling tightness in the back of his right shoulder while playing catch. They need him and Scherzer to double their innings output. If they do, the Mets will have gotten everything they paid for, and more.

2. Can they avoid the implosion?

Playing in Queens is super stressful. You’ve got the media pressure, the tempestuous (but loving!) fans, the line at Shake Shack. We have seen Mets teams buckle under it all, and fall apart down the stretch, many, many times. For all the additions the Mets have made, including some smart, surgical ones like  and , we’ve seen this story before. Everyone is gearing up to see if the Mets can avoid a collapse. There are still plenty of questions here. (Robinson Canó -- remember him? -- might be batting fifth, for example). The team has quite a few holes for one with the second-highest payroll in the sport. If a couple of leaks spring, can they keep everything patched together? Or will the dam break?

Nationals

1. Can they persuade Juan Soto they know what they’re doing?

Here’s a thought experiment: If  wasn’t on this team -- and wasn’t the future of the franchise, to the point that the only real question that matters is whether or not they can extend his contract -- would the Nationals have torn down already? The Nats need to convince Soto and his representatives that they will build a competitive team around him. The problem is that they are not very good right now. So they’re trying to split the difference, not pushing that hard but also bringing in guys like Nelson Cruz to paper over some of the big roster issues. Soto is a smart guy. He can see this just like we can.

2. Does Strasburg have anything left?

Here is your reminder that the Nationals have gotten exactly 26 2/3 innings out of  since they signed him to that seven-year, $245 million contract after they won the World Series. This is the third year of that contract. It runs through 2026. (That’s two years after Soto becomes a free agent, by the way). Strasburg hasn’t pitched yet in Spring Training, and the Nats say they are willing to wait. After 26 2/3 innings over two years, and five more years left to go, hey, what’s another month? What’s another year at this point?

Phillies

1. The defense will obviously be bad. But how bad can it be?

The Phillies clearly made a conscious decision to load up their lineup with first basemen/DH types. They watch baseball. They know how the game works. The bet is that these guys will slug the ball farther than their fielders will have to run to chase down stray baseballs. Are they right? This lineup does look pretty incredible: Who wants to start a game facing Schwarber/Castellanos/Harper/Realmuto/Hoskins? Sure, there’s redundancy here. But that redundancy is a repetition of really, really good hitters. I guarantee you this: Opposing pitchers won’t be mumbling about the Phillies’ defense.

2. What happens if they miss the playoffs again?

The Phillies haven’t made the playoffs since 2011. That was so long ago that  was still on the Cardinals (the first time)! After a rebuild failed to provide the young, MLB-ready talent they were hoping for, the Phillies just started spending money to try to win. If another gearing up this year fails to bear fruit, how much patience will this fanbase, or even these owners, have? Eleven straight seasons without reaching the playoffs? That’s as long as the Jets!

Predictions:
Mets: 90-72
Braves: 87-75
Phillies: 86-76
Marlins: 79-83
Nationals: 66-96

This is far from the best division in baseball, but it may be the most fascinating. The stakes are so high for every single team in the NL East. How will each team respond? Know this, as always: The ones that implode will do so spectacularly.