NL outscoring AL? You read that right

Even without DH, Senior Circuit clubs own the edge

April 18th, 2019

The designated-hitter rule has sparked debate ever since it was introduced 46 years ago, and those on both sides of the debate may be as entrenched as ever. But for those who favor pitchers getting the chance to hit in the National League, the early returns from 2019 suggest that scoring might be just fine in the Senior Circuit -- even without the DH’s presence.

ESPN’s David Schoenfield pointed out that entering Wednesday, NL teams were outscoring their American League brethren. Entering Thursday, the NL still holds a slight advantage, scoring 4.72 runs per game to the AL's 4.69 runs per game to begin this season. While it’s only April, that would be historic if the trend holds through the rest of the season, because the NL has not outscored the AL over a full campaign since 1974 -- the second year of the DH’s existence. Even if the Senior Circuit’s lead evaporates in the coming months, it’s worth taking stock of this moment -- in which eight of MLB’s top 10 scoring teams belong to the NL -- to reflect on how even the rival leagues have become. Here are a few numbers that illustrate that:

• The NL has been gaining steam for a few years now, with three of its nine closest years to the AL coming between 2016-18. NL clubs got within .08 runs per game of the AL in '16, which was the closest it's been to the Junior Circuit in 40 years.

• That being said, NL teams spent many years well behind AL clubs in scoring, cresting at .71 runs per game behind the AL in 1996, when nine of MLB’s top 10 offenses belonged to the Junior Circuit. NL clubs got to within even a quarter of a run just four times between 2002 and '15.

• The NL is outperforming the AL in just about every metric, slashing .246/.323/.425 for a .748 OPS compared to the AL’s .240/.317/.411 and .728 OPS. Hitters are once again on pace to break the single-season home run record, and the NL is embracing the long ball more, averaging roughly 5% more dingers per game.

• Pitchers aren’t necessarily fueling the NL’s scoring surge, as they entered Thursday batting just .132 with a .364 OPS and a 43% strikeout rate. But designated hitters aren’t pressing their advantage either; their .257 batting average would tie for their 12th-lowest single-season mark since the position was founded, and four of the six lowest collective DH averages have come in the last five years.

• Perhaps we should have seen this coming after last season, when the NL finished with a higher winning percentage in Interleague Play for the first time in 15 years. The AL’s cellar-dwellers, like the Orioles (46-115), Royals (58-104) and White Sox (62-100), may have given the Junior Circuit a shorter bench last year, but the same can’t be said in 2019: Four of the bottom-five teams in scoring right now hail from the NL, as do three of the bottom-five by overall win percentage.