With the 2025 regular season in the books and all 30 teams' records and winning percentages final, the '26 Draft order and lottery odds have begun to take shape.
The MLB Draft Lottery -- ping pong balls and all -- has become a staple of the offseason. For the fourth consecutive year, a lottery during December's Winter Meetings will be used to determine the top of the Draft order.
2026 Draft:
All non-playoff teams are entered into a lottery for the top six picks. This year, 15 of those 18 teams are eligible for the lottery. Here they are, listed in order of the odds of them getting the No. 1 pick, with their 2025 winning percentages in parentheses.
White Sox (.370) -- 27.73%
Twins (.432) -- 22.18%
Pirates (.438) -- 16.81%
Orioles (.463) -- 9.24%
A’s (.469) -- 6.55%
Braves (.469) -- 4.54%
Rays (.475) -- 3.03%
Cardinals (.481) -- 2.35%
Marlins (.488) -- 1.85%
D-backs (.494) -- 1.51%
Rangers (.500) -- 1.34%
Giants (.500) -- 1.01%
Royals (.506) -- 0.84%
Mets (.512) -- 0.67%
Astros (.537) -- 0.34%
Rockies (.265) -- ineligible
Nationals (.407) -- ineligible
Angels (.444) -- ineligible
Since the Rockies received a lottery pick in the 2024 and '25 Drafts, they are not eligible for this year’s lottery -- teams cannot receive a lottery pick in more than two consecutive years. The Nationals and Angels are “payor clubs” -- teams that give rather than receive revenue sharing dollars -- and payors cannot receive a lottery pick in consecutive years.
Last year, the Nationals won the lottery despite 10.2 percent odds and selected prep shortstop Eli Willits (WSH No. 1/MLB No. 18) with the No. 1 overall pick. The Guardians ('24) and Pirates ('23) won the previous two lotteries, using those selections to draft Travis Bazzana (CLE No. 1/MLB No. 15) and Paul Skenes (‘23) respectively.
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The Blue Jays, Dodgers, Mets, Phillies and Yankees exceeded the second competitive-balance tax threshold, which means their first pick will get moved down 10 spots. If, however, the Mets get a top-six pick in the lottery, they'll keep that pick and their second pick will be moved down 10 spots.
The order of the postseason teams is determined by when they get eliminated, revenue-sharing status and then winning percentages. Those 12 teams will choose in the following order: Wild Card Series losers, Division Series losers, Championship Series losers, World Series loser, World Series winner. Within each of those groups, clubs will be sorted by revenue-sharing status, with payee clubs selecting before non-payee clubs.
If two or more clubs have identical winning percentages in the immediately preceding championship season, the selection order of those clubs will be determined by winning percentage in the next prior championship season, with any remaining ties resolved by the tied clubs’ respective championship-season winning percentages in each preceding year until the tie is broken.
After the first round, the lottery results won't affect picks Nos. 1-18, which will be in reverse order of winning percentage.
Rockies (.265)
White Sox (.370)
Nationals (.407)
Twins (.432)
Pirates (.438)
Angels (.444)
Orioles (.463)
A’s (.469)
Braves (.469)
Rays (.475)
Cardinals (.481)
Marlins (.488)
D-backs (.494)
Rangers (.500)
Giants (.500)
Royals (.506)
Mets (.512)
Astros (.537)