9 verdicts on Opening Day overreactions

March 29th, 2019

When the Red Sox bullpen blew a late lead on Opening Day in 2018, folks flooded their team Twitter mentions with regrettable rage.

Seven months later, when they had barely rinsed themselves of the champagne, the Red Sox returned the favor by basically dunking on people. It was beautiful

Because we, the people, are passionate, fallible fools (and that is said with the utmost love), the above didn’t stop us from another round of Opening Day overreactions on Thursday. So what do you say we pluck a few from the Twitter machine and decide if people are on to something or out of their minds?

Chris Sale got hammered today and the velocity started at 94 but ended at 92, which makes me concerned is that shoulder right? This extension is gonna blow up on the Red Sox.
--@bostonsports42

Oh, here we go with the Red Sox overreactions again.

Given the left shoulder issue that severely limited Sale’s workload down the stretch last season, Sale’s recent five-year contract extension drew a lot of scrutiny in the industry for being potentially premature. And seven runs allowed on Opening Day (the most by a Red Sox starter since Pedro Martinez gave up eight in 2002) in Seattle didn’t help.

But the Red Sox wouldn’t have signed the deal without doing their medical due diligence, and Sale’s velocity history is actually kind of all over the place. Fun fact: His lowest average fastball velocity of the past three seasons (90.2 mph) came last April 15. If you didn’t learn your lesson last year, Boston, here it is again: Deep breaths.

Verdict: Another year, another overreaction.

Christian Yelich homers on Opening Day. Confirmed: He’s still a god.
-- @MattByer33

Yelich’s 1.219 second-half OPS in 2018 was the highest we’ve seen by a full-time player since Ryan Howard’s 1.259 mark in 2006. Yelich had never hit more than 21 homers in a season, yet he hit 25 in the second half alone. And remember: The All-Star Game was pretty late last year. Yelich hit 69 percent of his homers in 44 percent of his games.

So we’re all wondering what he’ll do for an encore, and the encore began with his go-ahead, three-run homer to center in a 5-4 win over the Cardinals. Yelich is a clear regression candidate, in part because of an unusually high .373 batting average on balls in play in 2018. His homers came despite a reduced fly-ball rate.

But his surge last season was due to a more aggressive approach at the plate, and Thursday’s homer came on a first pitch. It’s still working.

Verdict: OK, he’s no god. But Yelich can significantly step back from his second half and still be a force.

The Minnesota Twins just clinched the AL Central.
-- @TheChopZone

This tweet is sarcastic, clearly. And it is an overreaction, clearly. If you play the 2019 season 10 times, the Indians might win the American League Central eight or nine of those times.

But this is baseball, and… Francisco Lindor has added a left ankle sprain to his right calf strain recovery. The Indians cut payroll and have huge questions in the outfield and bullpen. AL MVP Award finalist Jose Ramirez, who must carry the lineup in Lindor’s extended absence, had a miserable finish to 2018. The Indians have the best rotation in baseball, but perhaps not much reliable depth beyond those five arms.

So it’s not at all inconceivable that the Twins’ 10- to 20-percent chance of winning this thing comes true. If injuries sully the Tribe’s early run-production and the Twins have more days like Thursday, when Jose Berrios outdueled Corey Kluber in a 2-0 win, that early confidence could become contagious.

Verdict: Don’t print that banner just yet.

Not to overreact, but it’s no surprise that the Nats are winless and the Phillies undefeated when the former let the latter acquire a true winner in Bryce Harper.
-- @Noah_Becker

Just as beginning a sentence with “No offense, but…” is sure to be followed with something offensive, beginning with “Not to overreact, but…” is sure to be followed by an overreaction.

But Noah here hits on probably the best melodrama of 2019. In a loaded NL East, every step the Nats and Phillies take will be viewed through the lens of the Harper dynamic -- the Nats trying to prove they are better off without their one-time franchise face and the Phillies trying to thrive with their new one.

It goes without saying that Opening Day taught us absolutely nothing. Jacob deGrom was brilliant against the Nats, as is his nature, and Harper walked and scored a run in a 10-4 win over the Braves that was more a demonstration of the depth of the renovated Philadelphia lineup. It should surprise absolutely nobody if Harper starts slowly with his new squad, given his late arrival to spring camp and the enormous expectations heaped upon him.

Verdict: The qualifier does not save this from being an obvious overreaction.

Padres making the playoffs.
-- @angelbrahh

A 2-0 win, complete with a pair of hits from the 20-year-old Fernando Tatis Jr. in his big league debut, was a nice start for a fascinating Friars club. It’s not just about what Manny Machado brings to the equation, high-profile though that may be.

It’s perhaps more about what the Padres get from Tatis, Luis Urias, Franmil Reyes, Chris Paddack and Francisco Mejia, all of whom can or will occupy important roles at age-24 or younger. A young team can go to either of two extremes (or try them both out) over the course of 162. But this should be a genuinely fun team to watch.

Verdict: Overreaction. For now.

Everyone: “Yankees are going to crush the single season HR record this year”
Dodgers: “Hold my beer”

--@freeagentnate

An Opening Day-record eight homers for the Dodgers in a 12-5 win over the D-backs, begging the question: Are the Dodgers too home-run reliant?!

OK, that’s an overreaction in and of itself. And any talk of the homer record right now is an obvious overreaction, though it was the Dodgers (235) who finished second to the Yankees’ record 267 dingers last year. And while the Dodgers’ lineup has a different complexion in the outfield this year, the Steamer projection system sees six of their players (Cody Bellinger, Joc Pederson, Max Muncy, Corey Seager, Enrique Hernandez, Justin Turner) finishing this season with 20 homers or more (and 19 for A.J. Pollock).

There’s also this:

Verdict: Any record talk is silly, but, yes, the Dodgers are going to mash again.

So in conclusion, Luke Voit’s 2018 performance was not a fluke and he is in fact the real deal.
--@briebrie77

That inexplicable power of the pinstripes was strong with Voit last year, when he came out of nowhere (well, St. Louis) to post a .333/.405/.689 slash with 14 homers in just 39 games. But because out-of-nowhere heroes can quickly turn back into pumpkins (See: Spencer, Shane), a lot of people wonder if he’ll be Fluke Voit this year. It’s not like he had an eye-catching Minor League track record or touted prospect pedigree.

But Voit did have the best barrel rate per plate appearance (12.4) last year among those with at least 100 PAs, per Statcast. And he did have the highest expected wOBA (.437) among that same group of players. Given their overall roster complexion, it is conceivable that the Yankees might have Voit on a shorter leash than some other clubs might, especially if Greg Bird’s Opening Day homer is a sign of things to come. But Voit hit a three-run blast in the Yanks’ 7-2 win over the Orioles, and he just might be ready to roll out the barrels again.

Verdict: Voit won’t match last year’s ridiculous homer rate. But this reaction feels reasonable.

Justin Verlander is winning the Cy Young. You heard it here first.
--@sweetenloux

Justin Verlander should have at least two and probably three Cy Young Awards, but he still only has the one from 2011, when he was also the AL MVP. He probably deserved the Cy Young in '16, whereas the 2018 vote is more debatable. But for Verlander, who had calmly explained at the end of last season that he felt innings workload should still have a large say in the voting, thoroughly outpitching reigning Cy winner Blake Snell with seven innings of one-run ball in a 5-1 win at Tropicana Field (where Snell was especially untouchable last year) must have felt a little extra special.

So… Verlander for Cy Young? At age 36? If you value the traditional role of the starter and worry that it’s going the way of the overhead projector, you’ve got to love the thought. But at the risk of reading too much into last year’s result, it does feel like there’s been a real sea change in terms of what voters value and prioritize.

Verlander has averaged 201 innings per season in his 30s, and it’s hard to maintain a standout ERA or ERA+ with that level of workload while guys south of 200 are no longer essentially eliminated from consideration and have the advantage of a smaller sample. Randy Johnson’s age-40 season in 2004 was the last time a pitcher aged 36 or older led his league in ERA+.

Verdict: Mild overreaction that we genuinely hope is not an overreaction.

The Braves bullpen is trash and we literally did nothing to address it in the offseason.
--@cooper_guthrie

This was a, um, popular sentiment among Braves fans on Thursday. Atlanta was already losing, 3-1, when Julio Teheran finished up his six innings of work and handed it over to a ‘pen that rates as this club’s biggest question mark. And the ‘pen did nothing to keep the Braves in the ballgame or alleviate concerns – seven runs allowed in three innings (four charged to Luke Jackson, three to Shane Carle) in what turned out to be a 10-4 loss to the Phillies.

There are so many unknowns in this group, with A.J. Minter (shoulder) and Darren O’Day (forearm) behind schedule. Closer Arodys Vizcaino’s injury history is no source of comfort, and Jonny Venters’ workload must be monitored closely after 3 1/2 Tommy Johns. The Braves have a ton of intriguing young starters, and maybe some of that bleeds into the bullpen once health allows. But with that youth in the starting group will come the need for the relief corps to absorb a lot of innings. You can’t blame Braves fans for clamoring for the return of Craig Kimbrel in free agency, and those cries are all the louder right now.

Verdict: “Trash” is rude. But the overarching sentiment is not an overreaction.