SARASOTA, Fla. -- So what happens to the Orioles if Chris Tillman's cranky right shoulder stays cranky for awhile?
"I look at it as a great opportunity for somebody," manager Buck Showalter said. "There's an opportunity created by fate sometimes. Sometimes, it's a trade. Sometimes, it's an injury."
This is the issue the Orioles have wrestled with this entire Spring Training. They are a team with few holes. The O's defense and bullpen are among baseball's best. Their offense led the planet in home runs last season.
• O's have questions before Spring Training ends
The Orioles have a franchise player in third baseman Manny Machado and a clubhouse environment that's as good as any. As for the manager, Showalter, there's none better.
Now, about that other thing. Right, the starting rotation. Last season, Baltimore's starters had the highest ERA (4.72) of any postseason team. Only two American League teams had higher ERAs, and neither came close to the playoffs.
To remove Tillman, the ace, from the equation for more than a few weeks might justify some of the people picking the O's, as usual, to finish last in the AL East. They were also picked to finish last in 2016, a campaign in which they won 89 games and made the postseason for the third time in five seasons.
Since Opening Day 2012, Baltimore has been a popular fourth- or fifth-place pick. In that time, it has won more games (444) than any other AL team. But picking the Birds to finish at the bottom has become a tough habit to break.
"Honestly, we don't really pay all that much attention," first baseman Chris Davis said.
No kidding. Anyway, making the postseason with Tillman missing a large chunk of time would be quite a feat. The Orioles were 22-8 last season in his starts and 67-65 when anyone else got the ball.
Now, Tillman is undergoing treatment on his sore right shoulder. While the O's say they're confident he'll pitch at some point this season, perhaps early, there's plenty of uncertainty.
This spring, Showalter has held a tryout camp of sorts for the final spot in the rotation behind Kevin Gausman, Dylan Bundy, Ubaldo Jimenez and Wade Miley.
The most intriguing candidates are three youngsters: left-hander Chris Lee and right-handers Gabriel Ynoa and Jayson Aquino. Orioles executive vice president of baseball operations Dan Duquette acquired two of them for cash (Aquino and Ynoa) and one for international signing slots (Lee).
All three have pitched well this spring. If even one of them ends up helping Baltimore get back to the postseason, it would be another reminder that Duquette is better than almost anyone at his job. Aquino has a microscopic 0.82 ERA, while Lee (2.77) and Ynoa (3.12) have been plenty good.
"How do you know about a guy?" Showalter asked. "You run 'em out there. We may have to force-feed some. Maybe we'll find they're a little better [than people think]. It's just an unknown.
"There's no track record. Somebody here is going to get a chance to develop a track record."
Bundy and Gausman are a reminder of how that works. Both were first-round Draft picks. Both had some ups and downs -- especially Bundy, who lost big chunks of the 2014 and '15 seasons to injuries.
The Orioles stuck with both of them, believing they both had a chance to be big-time contributors. Down the stretch last season, when the O's needed them most, both grew up. Baltimore won six of Gausman's final nine starts, and seven of Bundy's last 12.
"Every year, you learn more about what you need," Gausman, 26, said. "I feel just a little bit smarter than I did last year. Hopefully, I am."
For Bundy, 24, it was simpler.
"Staying healthy was my biggest achievement," he said. "The best thing is, I had a totally normal offseason. [I] got to take two months off, and then started getting back out after it."
Showalter says there's a lesson in how their young careers have played out.
"I've said it a hundred times," Showalter said. "If you try to cheat that process, you're going to get burned. We want it to happen so fast, especially in today's game. Young, affordable pitching with an upside is such a commodity that everybody's looking for it -- especially us. We've got to develop our own pitching or we won't be able to survive."
Showalter is looking forward to seeing what the two of them will do in the rotation for an entire season. He's hoping they push one another and learn from one another.
"I think they're at the point now that they're going to do their thing and seek their level," Showalter said. "I'm looking forward to seeing what it is. I think it's got a chance to be pretty good."
And so do the Orioles. As usual.