PHILADELPHIA -- The Phillies' starting rotation in 2026 has a chance to -- once again -- be one of the best in the Majors.
Unlike in recent years, however, it also poses a legitimate threat to quickly become the club's biggest Achilles heel.
Strange as it may seem, it's not hard to make a case on either side.
On the one hand, the Phillies' starting staff consists of three pitchers who finished in the Top 10 in National League Cy Young voting just last season: Cristopher Sánchez (runner-up), Jesús Luzardo (seventh) and Zack Wheeler (ninth). A fourth pitcher -- Aaron Nola -- received his own share of NL Cy Young votes just one season earlier. The club has accounted for the Cy Young runner-up in each of the past two seasons (Wheeler in 2024; Sánchez in '25).
This is largely the same Phillies rotation that led the Majors in strikeouts last season -- and led the NL in ERA.
As if all that wasn't enough, the Phillies hope to round out their starting five by adding Andrew Painter -- one of the top pitching prospects across baseball -- to the mix.
So ... what could possibly go wrong?
Well, let's start with Wheeler. Unquestionably one of the game's best pitchers over the past half-decade, the right-hander's status for Opening Day remains up in the air after undergoing thoracic outlet decompression surgery in September. Even once healthy, it remains to be seen whether he'll be his usual self.
Beyond that, Nola is coming off an injury-riddled campaign of his own in which he finished with a 6.01 ERA. Painter -- for as high as the expectations are -- has yet to throw a pitch at the MLB level.
Even the two who seemingly have no question marks -- Sánchez and Luzardo -- are coming off heavy workloads. Sánchez crossed the 200-inning mark for the first time in his career, while Luzardo's 183 2/3 innings were not only a career high but nearly three times as many as he threw the previous season.
And, oh by the way, Ranger Suárez -- a member of the Phillies' organization since 2012 -- is now in Boston.
"I still feel great about the team," Sánchez said via a team interpreter. "We have some young arms coming up that I feel are going to help us, and I think Wheeler will be back and he's going to be a major contributor to our staff."
While Sánchez has established himself as an ace in his own right, make no mistake: The Phillies need Wheeler, too.
Though they're prepared to potentially begin the season without him, Philadelphia knows its best path to winning a World Series is a full-strength rotation come October -- especially given the lack of organizational depth.
Beyond that aforementioned five -- Sánchez, Luzardo, Nola, Painter and Wheeler -- the only other obvious rotation candidate is Taijuan Walker, who’s entering the final year of his four-year, $72 million deal.
That leaves very little margin for error for a rotation featuring two veterans coming off injury and a 22-year-old prospect yet to make his debut.
"Well, I mean, you’ve got your five guys, plus Wheeler -- I don't know where Wheeler's going to be at when we get to Spring Training ... he looks good, but there's no guarantees when he's going to get up on the mound," said manager Rob Thomson. "He eventually will, but you've got Sánchy and Luzardo and Nola and Taijuan and Painter.
"I like those guys, and you know, Wheeler's not far behind."
In the meantime, Sánchez will be called on to assume the No. 1 role. He looked every bit the part in 2025, when he went 13-5 with a 2.50 ERA and 212 strikeouts during the regular season, then -- with Wheeler sidelined for the postseason -- taking the ball as the Game 1 starter.
Though the NLDS didn't go as the Phillies hoped, Sánchez did his part against the eventual World Series champion Dodgers. He had a 2.25 ERA and 13 strikeouts in 12 innings over his two starts in the series.
It's possible his next assignment could be his first career Opening Day start.
"If I said no, I'd be lying to you," Sánchez said when asked if he'd want to make an Opening Day start. "But regardless if that happens or not, any role that I'm given, I just want to go out there and do the best for the team."
After all, he has bigger goals in mind.
"Obviously," he said, "the main goal is always going to be to win the World Series."