FORT MYERS, Fla. – So … what now?
The Twins received just about the worst injury-related news they could get on Tuesday, when it was announced that Pablo López will almost certainly undergo right elbow surgery and miss the entire 2026 season. It was a gut punch before the first pitch has been thrown in a game.
Here’s the thing, though: it came before the first pitch was thrown in a game. It’s more than five weeks until Opening Day. The Twins still have seven starting pitching candidates for five spots, and the front office still considers this a season to try to compete, not to rebuild.
So the question is simple: What are they going to do now? Losing López last June was devastating, but with a month still to get ready for games that count, Minnesota is better equipped to overcome the loss of its three-time Opening Day starter.
“When you lose someone during the season, it’s more significant, because of the fact that person has been, in that case, pitching every five days,” said manager Derek Shelton. “You’ve had the expectation, the year he was having. When you lose someone at this time of year, potentially, you’re able to prepare for it better.”
Shelton wasn’t around in 2025, when the loss of López to a muscle strain in the back of his right shoulder coincided with a freefall for a team that had previously been flying high. There were other factors, to be sure, but it’s not strictly a coincidence that when the Twins lost López, they started losing games. The mission is to prevent a similar effect in 2026.
Some of that will come from in-house. Ober and Ryan, in particular, are aware that their responsibilities have changed a little bit now.
“Outside of just pitching, you can be a little bit more of a voice to the younger guys,” said Bailey Ober. “I would say that was probably the only thing that me and Joe [Ryan] will probably do a little bit extra. Not necessarily on-the-field stuff, but just be there for the younger guys and see where we can help out in any way possible.”
The door is open
The most immediate effect of López’s injury is very likely an opportunity for someone already in camp. Ryan probably becomes the Opening Day starter, followed by Ober, and then it’s five candidates for three spots.
Taj Bradley and Simeon Woods Richardson looked like the favorites when there were two spots at the back of the rotation, so that probably hasn’t changed. But neither is a lock, and now there are three spots up for grabs. Zebby Matthews, who will start Friday in the exhibition against the University of Minnesota, Mick Abel and David Festa join Bradley and Woods Richardson in the competition for three starting jobs.
All five have promise. All five have shown flashes of legitimate Major League ability. None is a sure thing.
“We spent a lot of this offseason talking about the strength of our roster being in the rotation depth and view it as a real opportunity as a next man up,” said general manager Jeremy Zoll.
“In a lot of ways, [we] view this as a real opportunity for someone to step up and take advantage of that. We’ll pick up the pieces once we have a better handle on things and catch our breath from where everything has shaken out here.”
External options?
A few free-agent starting pitchers are still out there, most notably Lucas Giolito, Zack Littell and Max Scherzer. Twins ownership has signaled a willingness to spend after making a bid for Framber Valdez and acknowledging that they would be willing to take on payroll in a trade. But that’s not the only cost of signing a free agent.
The club would have to be convinced that one of those options is better than what it has, and it’s not at all clear that the front office values Giolito or Littell higher than the pitchers currently in camp. Signing a free agent is not just a commitment of money; it’s committing a roster spot and very likely a continuing rotation spot, even if that pitcher falters.
It's not that the Twins definitely won’t sign a free agent or trade for a starter. But between the short-term opportunity cost and the potential effect on the development of their in-house young starters, it’s also not a slam dunk.