As you'd probably expect, the final Padres Inbox of 2020 is loaded with questions about the rotation, bullpen and bench.
Let's get right to it ...
How many starting pitchers do the Padres need to add from outside the organization? How much do they trust their young guys?
-- Xavier C.
The Padres' long-term trust in their young pitchers is unwavering. They think they have the makings of a dominant future rotation, with Luis Patiño, MacKenzie Gore and Ryan Weathers potentially set to join Dinelson Lamet, Chris Paddack and Mike Clevinger.
But in 2021 -- with Clevinger on the shelf, injury questions surrounding Lamet and performance-related questions for Paddack -- it'd be wise to invest in some insurance.
How many starting pitchers do the Padres add this winter? I don't see how they can feel comfortable without at least two more.
Lamet, Paddack and Zach Davies make up three-fifths of the rotation. The other options are a mix of unproven big leaguers and high-upside prospects -- Patiño, Gore, Weathers, Adrian Morejon, Joey Lucchesi, etc. The Padres don't want to block their youngsters from primetime. But they also don't want to rely too heavily on them.
Here's what I'd expect from their two rotation adds: One should be a no-doubt big league-caliber starter (potentially a front-end arm, but at least a mid-rotation lock). The other should be a fringe/swingman type (someone who can offer competition for the likes of Gore and Patiño, but can slide to the bullpen or Triple-A if need be).
What are the chances the Padres re-sign Jurickson Profar?
-- Jack C.
At this point, a Profar reunion seems unlikely, but it definitely shouldn't be ruled out. The biggest obstacle toward signing Profar is his general usefulness.
Profar is a switch-hitter who can play practically every defensive position. He would make all 30 MLB teams better. It's not so much a question of fit -- because he fits everywhere. It's a question of who values Profar most.
The Padres have good reason to. Profar was excellent down the stretch last season, posting a .278/.343/.428 slash line for 2020. He was also a beloved and affable figure in the clubhouse, and he was particularly close with Fernando Tatis Jr. There's no doubt Profar would bring plenty of value in San Diego.
But the Padres also don't have a starting role to offer Profar. He'd be an excellent backup for about six of their starters. But if Profar wants a regular job, the Padres lineup is full. If another team values Profar as an everyday piece, it's worth wondering whether the Padres would pay the same price for Profar as a backup. Worth wondering whether Profar would accept that role, too.
Seems like the major pitching targets for the Padres have shifted to either Blake Snell or Sonny Gray. What do you think the prospect/player cost would be on acquiring one of those guys?
-- Rich R.
MLB.com recently took a look at potential trade proposals for Snell. Here was the Padres' mock offer:
Padres get: LHP Snell
Rays get: LHP Adrian Morejon, C Luis Campusano, OF Jorge Oña, RHP Mason Thompson
As the article points out, if someone says no, it's probably Tampa Bay. The Rays have every right to set the price extremely high on Snell (and they presumably will). But the Padres' top three prospects are off-limits. So how do you bridge that gap?
Morejon and Campusano already bring a lot of value. Maybe the Padres add a third big-name youngster. Maybe they turn their focus to Gray, who would presumably cost less.
Or maybe they deem the price too high, and they are content to hang onto the stable of young talent in their farm system. But this much is clear: If the Padres deem it a necessity to make a deal for a frontline starter, they still have the pieces to make it happen.
What will our bullpen look like next year? Any [pitchers] returning from injury? Any who may not be on the team next year?
-- Rob H.
Austin Adams made his return from a torn ACL in September, and general manager A.J. Preller also expressed optimism that José Castillo would make a full return in 2021. That gives the Padres a pretty deep group of options. Here's how I'd break it down:
Back end: Emilio Pagán, Drew Pomeranz
Setup/middle innings: Matt Strahm, Tim Hill, Pierce Johnson, Castillo, Adams
In the mix/on the roster bubble: Craig Stammen, Dan Altavilla, Taylor Williams, Javy Guerra, Michel Baez, David Bednar, Morejon (if he's not a starter)
Here's what Preller had to say about that group:
"We like the guys we have; we feel like we have depth and we have quality. But we've talked about it: 'Pens, year to year, they can be really effective one year, not so much the next. You're constantly looking to add 'pen options."
On paper, yes, it's strong group of relievers. But the Padres' bullpen could use one or two more weapons to negate the bullpen volatility Preller spoke of.
They might add a closer, but those are pricey right now. They might add a more affordable setup option, with Pagan or Pomeranz filling the closer role. They've both done it in the past.