This story was excerpted from AJ Cassavell’s Padres Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.
ANAHEIM -- One hundred to go.
If there’s a milepost that puts the proper perspective on the marathon nature of a baseball season, it’s this one. The first two-plus months of the Padres’ season have been topsy-turvy enough -- a trans-Pacific trip, a blockbuster trade, thrilling comebacks and wild finishes galore.
And there are still 100 games left on the calendar.
After taking two of three in Kansas City over the weekend, the Padres sit at 32-30, entrenched in the early playoff picture, 6 1/2 games behind Los Angeles (38-23) in the National League West. It hasn’t always been smooth. But everything San Diego would like to accomplish remains possible. The next 100 games will define those ambitions. Here are three things that need to go right:
1. Stars shining
It might be trending in this direction already. The Padres’ stars have played like it of late. I'm willing to count Luis Arraez in this group, and he's been red hot since his early-May arrival. Manny Machado, meanwhile, has hit in 10 of 11 games, with his three-walk effort on Saturday as the only hitless outing in the bunch. Fernando Tatis Jr. scorched the baseball last week, and he’s riding an eight-game hitting streak of his own. He looks swaggy again.
As for Xander Bogaerts, it's probably going to be a while. Surgery does not seem necessary for his fractured left shoulder. But he's still facing an extended period where the fracture must heal before he can begin his ramp-up.
Still, if the Padres can get Arraez, Machado and Tatis clicking like the All-Stars they are, that trio should be enough to hold down the fort. With rest and recovery, maybe Bogaerts can put his early-season struggles behind him and finish the year strong.
The Padres have gotten so many contributions from the fringes of their offense. All along, manager Mike Shildt has been adamant that his stars would revert to the numbers “on their bubblegum cards.” If so, it’s easy to envision this as one of the toughest lineups in baseball, one through nine.
2. Manage that 'pen
Jurickson Profar has been a revelation. Jackson Merrill's transition to center field has been seamless. The Arraez trade was a coup. But I'll rank the reinvention of this bullpen right up there among the Padres' biggest successes of the season -- Sunday’s loss notwithstanding.
Consider what San Diego lost. Among the eight relievers who threw the most innings last season, none of them factor into the current group. Gone are Josh Hader, Nick Martinez, Luis García, Steven Wilson, Tim Hill, Scott Barlow and Brent Honeywell Jr. Tom Cosgrove has spent much of the year in the Minors.
The Padres essentially don't have a single pitcher back from last year’s primary relief corps. But a healthy Robert Suarez has been lights out in the closer role. Jeremiah Estrada is turning into the waiver claim of the year. With both unavailable on Sunday, Yuki Matsui blew a save in the ninth. But Matsui, Wandy Peralta and Enyel De Los Santos have mostly been solid in their usual middle-innings roles. Adrian Morejon has reinvented himself.
Add it all up, and the Padres entered Monday with the sixth-best relief ERA in the National League (3.75) and the second-best FIP (3.71). Despite shedding players and salary, San Diego's bullpen has been better this year than it was a season ago.
The long haul of the next 100 games will present its own challenges, and Shildt must manage workloads along the way. But if the Padres can maintain the current level from the back end of their bullpen, it should bode well -- not merely for their chances of reaching the postseason, but for thriving if they get there.
3. Trade season
The recurrence of Joe Musgrove's right elbow injury is concerning, to say the least. And while the Padres remain optimistic that there's no structural damage, this is now two elbow-related trips to the IL in two months. Not good.
Yu Darvish's left hamstring/groin is less concerning. It was the prudent move to place him on the IL -- to make certain the injury wouldn't linger or morph into something more serious. Darvish could be back in a couple weeks. Still, he’s 37, and this is his second trip to the IL this season as well.
All of which is a long way of saying: The Padres should be looking to add to their rotation ahead of the Trade Deadline. Following their March trade for Dylan Cease and their May trade for Arraez, San Diego's farm system isn't as robust as it once was.
But the Padres can throw most of their remaining trade chips in the starting pitching basket. Their bullpen is performing. Their offense has the pieces it needs, and its biggest fixes are internal.
In the rotation, the Padres could use help. They don’t necessarily need an ace -- and they’re probably not willing to part with the high-end pieces it would take to acquire one. But if general manager A.J. Preller wants to add a mid-rotation arm, he has the capacity to do so.