Padres seem sure to add arms at Deadline. How might that look?

SAN DIEGO -- One by one, starting pitchers are coming off the board. At some point in the hours leading up to Monday’s 3 p.m. PT Trade Deadline, the Padres will almost certainly get in on the action.

With their performance over the past couple weeks, the Padres have established themselves as contenders. And, thus, buyers. Their biggest need -- by far -- is starting pitching.

The last two weeks have seen San Diego employ a strategy of “pitching chaos,” using bullpen games to fill three-fifths of its starting rotation. That’s not going to continue much longer -- at least not with that frequency. The question doesn’t seem to be if the Padres will add a starter. It’s: “How many?"

Indeed, the baseline for general manager A.J. Preller at this Trade Deadline is one starting pitcher. Things get interesting from there:

One starter? OK, then … which starter? Or is it two starters? Do you weigh the costs of one high-end starter versus two back-end rotation types? And what about next year’s rotation, which is looking awfully thin? Is team control a priority? (With Preller, it almost always is.)

Elsewhere … Do you need a bat? What level of bat? Is it a starter in left field or just another bench piece? And do you consider trading from the elite bullpen you’ve already built? Mason Miller is almost certainly off the table. But what about Adrian Morejon? Or one of the other lefties?

That’s a lot of major questions -- all of which are going to be resolved within a few hours. Let’s take a look at the big ones.

What are the Padres looking for in the rotation?

It’s always been a question of quality versus quantity. And for a long time, there was a better case for quantity. The Padres only have two regular starters in their rotation. They could use a couple more. Right?

Well, recent developments might’ve changed things. Joe Musgrove and Nick Pivetta begin rehab stints this week. Additionally, “pitching chaos” actually seems to be working. Maybe an occasional bullpen game or two isn’t the worst thing.

The Padres’ farm system is as thin as it’s been at any Deadline in recent memory -- which probably prevents Preller from pulling off a blockbuster. (Emphasis on “probably.” It’s still Preller, after all.)

There are still pieces to trade, however. It’s just a question of where to allocate the resources. If you only have so many, do you lump them into one trade for a front-of-the-rotation difference-maker? Or do you spread them around multiple trades for multiple starters?

There’s a case to be made for both approaches. Knowing what we know about Preller, his preference is always higher-end talent. And generally with multiple years of control.

Would they add a bat as well?

It no longer feels necessary, like it once did. The Padres have now been hitting well enough for long enough that they can feel good about their offense on the whole.

They would still benefit from an upgrade or two. Left field comes to mind. The Padres are currently getting by with some combination of Gavin Sheets, Luis Rengifo and Jase Bowen. Sheets and Rengifo are better at other positions. Bowen is more viable as a speed-and-defense bench piece.

There’s been no like-for-like replacement for Ramón Laureano on this roster. Additionally, Samad Taylor and Miguel Andujar remain sidelined by injuries of their own.

One more bat couldn’t hurt. But the Padres have been a top-10 offense for the last two months. It’s not the priority.

Could they trade a reliever?

Preller understands the value of an elite bullpen in October. In 2022, ‘24 and ‘25, the San Diego ‘pen was already a strength. In all three of those seasons, Preller added to it at the Deadline.

So, yes, it would qualify as a surprise if Preller were to deal one of his best arms. (And a shock if it were to be Miller, who has three years of team control remaining after this one.)

Morejon might be a different story. He’s a free agent after the season and might be the best reliever available on the trade market (if he’s even available). Presumably, the Padres would receive a major haul if they were to deal Morejon. Perhaps that haul would include controllable starting pitching. Or prospects you could flip for controllable starting pitching.

Here’s why it’s unlikely: The Morejon/Miller back-end combo is the best thing the Padres have going for them. Their best chance at making a deep run is tied directly to shortening games. (In which Morejon would be tasked with facing some of the NL’s best left-handed hitters.)

A more likely scenario? The Padres would consider moving another lefty in their ‘pen. They currently have three others -- Yuki Matsui, Wandy Peralta and Kyle Hart. There are plenty of other teams looking for bullpen help. The Padres, meanwhile, could probably move one of those relievers without seeing much of a drop-off.