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The Padres know how to make their clinches dramatic. A year ago, they became the first team in history to clinch a playoff spot with a game-ending triple play. Then, on Monday, they walked off into a clinch for the first time in franchise history.
They partied deep into the night.
Then, the conversations shifted to what comes next. Of course, they were almost certainly having some of the same conversations before Freddy Fermin’s walk-off single in the 11th inning against the Brewers. But those conversations just got a lot more real.
Here are the three major questions the Padres will be asking themselves about their playoff roster.
1. Who starts Game 3?
I think the Padres have seen enough out of Michael King to be reasonably confident in giving him a Wild Card Series start, most likely in Game 2, behind Nick Pivetta in Game 1. King has only made three starts since returning from the IL, and he’s only won one of them. But he’s proven it on the October stage and started to look like himself against the White Sox last week.
The bigger question is Game 3 -- a potential winner-take-all Wild Card Series finale. The current candidates -- Yu Darvish, Dylan Cease and Randy Vásquez -- all come with question marks. Darvish and Cease have been entirely inconsistent.
Vásquez, meanwhile, has been more consistent. But he doesn’t have the proven track record of those two, and his peripheral numbers raise serious questions about how sustainable his performance could be.
Prediction: Darvish
In a winner-take-all Game 3, it’s a matter of trust. It was only last year that Darvish shined in a winner-take-all Game 5 at Dodger Stadium. He’s done it before, whereas Vásquez has not and Cease has struggled on that kind of stage. Plus, since lowering his arm slot a couple months ago, Darvish has been much better. Not great, mind you. But better. And how many innings do the Padres really need from him, with this bullpen?
2. How does the Ramón Laureano injury shake up the lineup?
Simple enough against a right-hander. You slide Gavin Sheets into left field, and you have Bryce Johnson ready as a defensive replacement. Of course, the Padres were counting on having Sheets’ lefty bat off the bench, so his absence will be felt. But the solution is still clean against righties.
Thing is, if the Padres are facing the Cubs, they’re probably going to face a pair of lefties in Matthew Boyd and Shota Imanaga. Are they really going to write out a lineup with five lefty bats against those two left-handers?
They have righty-hitting options. Jose Iglesias has been red-hot lately and has historically been much better against left-handed pitching. Maybe he works his way into an infield spot. Johnson, meanwhile, is a much better defender than Sheets and has been solid at the plate. Maybe he starts, keeping Sheets’ bat on the bench.
We already know that the Padres plan to use Elias Díaz, Pivetta’s personal catcher, for Game 1, with Freddy Fermin presumably starting Games 2 and 3 behind the plate. The Padres could probably use a lefty pinch-hit bat to hit for one of those two.
Prediction: Iglesias stays on the bench, Johnson in left vs. lefties
Ryan O’Hearn has been red-hot. Jake Cronenworth has been one of the team’s toughest outs all season. Both have been solid against lefties. I have a hard time seeing Iglesias playing over either of them. But I think there’s merit to starting Johnson in left field in a tricky environment at Wrigley Field, keeping Sheets’ bat available to deploy off the bench.
3. Who gets the last three roster spots?
I’ll guess the Padres carry five starters, even if they’ll only need three. All five of those starters are among the Padres’ 12 best pitchers. (And couldn’t you imagine Vásquez doing an admirable job covering length in extras? Remember, without an automatic runner on second in extras, there’s a greater chance for longer games.)
The first six relievers seem set, as do the first three bench places. That leaves three spots, at least one of which needs to be a position player. On that front, it’ll be interesting to see who the Padres recall on Friday to take Laureano’s spot. Could be Will Wagner, who was optioned earlier this week when Xander Bogaerts returned from the IL.
If the Padres choose to stick with 13 position players, they will have two spots available in their bullpen. Kyle Hart, Bradgley Rodriguez and Yuki Matsui, plus a handful of arms currently in the Minors are among the candidates.
Prediction: Wagner, Hart and Matsui
I don’t see the need for a 14th position player on this roster. It seems even more unlikely now, following Laureano’s injury. So … two relievers, then. I think Hart is a clear favorite here, given the way his stuff has played up in the bullpen. The last spot seems completely up for grabs. I’ll guess Matsui.