How Friars could approach Trade Deadline

July 9th, 2022

This story was excerpted from AJ Cassavell’s Padres Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

It's hard to envision a more fascinating Trade Deadline for any team in baseball than the one that awaits in San Diego over the next 3 1/2 weeks.

The Padres sit squarely in win-now mode with a handful of championship-caliber pieces on their roster. But they're also flawed in several key areas -- with limited financial flexibility and resources.

Whatever the challenges, president of baseball operations A.J. Preller needs to find a way to navigate them, after last year’s underwhelming Deadline preceded the team’s late-season collapse.

Here's a four-step plan for the 2022 Padres' Trade Deadline:

1. Size up the trade chips

The Padres’ farm system is nowhere near as deep as it was when the club made splash after splash at the 2020 Deadline. But it still has a number of high-upside pieces that could be included in a deal.

If the Padres were to include a Top 100 Prospect like, say, Robert Hassell III, Luis Campusano or James Wood, they'd almost certainly get a worthwhile return. They'd probably also get a team that is willing to pay some of that returning player's salary. But those are some valuable pieces. If the Padres were to deal from deeper in their system, the return wouldn't be as great, and they could find themselves up against the luxury tax threshold.

To stay under that number, Preller also needs to look at the possibility of sending out a pricier player who still has value in 2022 -- like, say, Wil Myers or Blake Snell.

2. Deal for an outfielder

There's no room for error on this one. The Padres need an outfield bat in the worst possible way. But within that need, there's some flexibility.

The Padres could go with a corner-outfield bopper. Those bat-first types should be plentiful, and there's playing time available. The Padres' biggest issue right now is their utter inability to hit for power. The current combo of Myers, Luke Voit, Eric Hosmer and Nomar Mazara simply isn't producing enough from the DH/1B/RF spots -- generally the three spots in the lineup where you'd expect the most thump.

But the Padres could also go in a different direction in their search for an outfielder. They could look for a center-field type who can play the corners as well. It would be pricier, as center fielders are harder to find. But if they could find a right-handed bat, that player could play right field against righty starters and move to center in place of the lefty-hitting Trent Grisham against lefties. Among the names that fit the bill: Oakland's Ramón Laureano and Baltimore's Austin Hays -- again, two players with plenty of team control who won't come cheap.

3. Kick the tires on Willson Contreras

The duo of Austin Nola and Jorge Alfaro has been serviceable behind the plate. But there's an obvious upgrade to be had, and the Padres are interested.

Cubs catcher Willson Contreras is on the team's wish list. But considering he plays a premium position -- and the fact that the Padres aren't the only team in search of a catcher -- Contreras won't come cheap. He entered Thursday hitting .274/.392/.498 this season, leading all NL catchers in WAR. The Padres need to decide whether it's worth paying so steep a price for a rental piece, as Contreras is set to become a free agent after this season.

It has to be tempting. Because even with Alfaro and Nola on board, Contreras' fit should be seamless. He'd likely relegate Nola to a part-time bench role, and Alfaro could serve as big-time bench bat, while perhaps starting against lefties at DH.

4. Be careful with the pitching staff

Sure, everything is running smoothly in the Padres' rotation right now. As such, it might be tempting to move an arm like Snell or Mike Clevinger in order to clear salary to land a bat.

But there are serious risks involved with that type of a move. The Padres learned the hard way last season that attrition hits every rotation -- and often in the second half, as workloads increase and starters begin to fatigue.

Plus, the Padres' bullpen feels like it’s on thin ice. It’s an electric group, but a number of those arms are currently on the IL. The team is scraping by with its current group of relievers, largely because its starters are pitching deep into games so consistently. But there will be ripple effects to any move in the starting rotation.