There were few more bifurcated seasons in 2025 than that of Pete Crow-Armstrong.
In the first half of the year, he posted a sensational .847 OPS and 131 wRC+ (31% above league average), compiling 25 homers and 27 steals in 31 attempts before the All-Star break. Add in his elite center field defense, and the Cubs enjoyed superstar production for the first half of the season from PCA.
But in the second half his bat cooled, dampening enthusiasm regarding his breakout season. He hit just .216 with a 72 wRC+ after the break. Too often his contact was weak. Left-handed arms tormented him.
Overall, the 23-year-old produced an excellent 5.4 WAR season, per FanGraphs, tying PCA for the 35th best season by a position player 23 or younger this century -- matching Juan Soto's 2019 campaign and Albert Pujols' 2002 season. The company joining him on the list is almost exclusively that of superstars.
But after exceeding all expectations in the first half, his post All-Star performance cast doubt on how real his breakout was. Even the public projection systems available at FanGraphs vary wildly from forecasting a 2.7 fWAR (BATX) to 4.8 fWAR (ZiPS) for 2026.
Who is the real PCA? Let's explore.
The curious thing about Crow-Armstrong's Jekyll-and-Hyde season was his underlying stats didn't change much at all between halves. His walk rate? That remained steady. Plate discipline has never been a strength of PCA's, as he walked at a modest 4.5% rate in his first-half plate appearances, but he also walked in 4.5% of his second-half plate appearances.
He actually cut his out-of-zone swing rate from an MLB-worst 45.7% over the first three months to 37.4% in the second half. His strikeout rate did climb nearly three percentage points in the second half, though it hardly explains his swoon.
He also didn't stop swinging with less force. His bat speed increased in the second half of the season (73.2 mph), up from 72.3 mph in the first.
Moreover, PCA did not stop trying to make optimal contact. In fact, 42.3% of his line drives and fly balls went to his pull side through the first three months of the 2025 season, per FanGraphs data; that rate increased to 51.8% over the final three months. Only AL MVP runner-up Cal Raleigh pulled a greater share of his air balls in the second half (52%). The MLB average for a qualified hitter was 31.4%.
In fact, PCA posted the greatest year-over-year improvement in that metric among qualified hitters (+15.8 percentage points). That trend suggests the gains are very real.
So what happened after the break?
Despite swinging with more bat speed, despite lifting the ball to his pull side more often, his performance dropped off. He hit 25 home runs before the All-Star break and just six after it.
The biggest culprit? His homer-per-fly-ball rate crashed from 17.6% in the first half to 7.8% in the second. Specifically, his HR/FB rate on balls pulled in the air fell from 39.5% in the first three months, to 20.9% in the second half. (The MLB average was 30.7% for the season.)
And, again, this was as Crow-Armstrong improved his average swing speed from the 61st percentile in the first half to 70th in the second half. An argument can perhaps be made that he was swinging with too much force, that he needed to trade some bat speed for barrel control, but he wasn't losing any underlying ability. Adding bat speed is almost always a positive for hitters as it correlates strongly to overall performance.
What does it all mean?
While a free-swinging player like Crow-Armstrong will always be prone to streakier stretches of play, his overall 2025 performance was not an outlier despite the sluggish second half. He is again a good bet to reach 25-plus home runs to go along with his elite glove and speed.
And because he's only entering his age-24 season, there's reason to think Crow-Armstrong's overall offensive game will continue to grow. If he can reduce his out-of-zone swings and improve his contact rate, there's more upside.
A final consideration is because his glove is so good, his defensive ability will keep Crow-Armstrong in the lineup every day. Among other things, that can help a hitter working through a down period.
While enthusiasm was tempered by his sluggish second half, the full picture of 2025 tells us PCA arrived as a star.