CLEARWATER, Fla. -- Don’t read too much into the Phillies’ lineup on Saturday.
Or Sunday.
Or really most days this spring.
The Phillies will play the AL champion Blue Jays on Saturday in their Grapefruit League opener. They will then host the Pirates on Sunday at BayCare Ballpark. Philadelphia's lineups throughout the spring will be a mish mosh of veterans, non-roster invitees and prospects, especially when players leave for the World Baseball Classic. It will be that way until the final few games in Florida.
It won’t stop folks from looking for clues about the Phillies’ Opening Day lineup, though.
Mostly, where’s Bryce Harper hitting? And, just as important, who’s hitting in front of him and behind him?
“I mean, we switch it so much that I’m not really sure, lefty and righty,” Harper said earlier in the week about the lineup. “I don’t know. I mean, when we get to that point and we have that conversation, you guys will know.”
Harper’s spot in the lineup has been a topic of conversation because he did not have an “elite” 2025, in part perhaps because he saw pitches in the zone only 43 percent of time, the fewest out of 532 players (minimum 200 pitches). He saw only 39.1 percent of pitches in the zone in the postseason, 83rd out of 84 players (minimum 50 pitches).
Phillies manager Rob Thomson will spend the next few weeks looking for ways to help.
In the end, however, help might be impossible to find.
Harper has said in the past that it doesn’t matter who hits behind him because nobody has ever thrown him strikes. It’s true. When Harper won the 2015 NL MVP, his in-zone rate was 40.5 percent. When he won the 2021 NL MVP, his in-zone rate was 44.9 percent.
It doesn’t mean the Phillies don’t want somebody putting up good numbers behind Harper. They do. It’s why they made Bo Bichette a seven-year, $200 million offer last month.
Bichette could have hit cleanup behind Harper.
“I think it makes a huge impact in the four spot,” Harper said about seeing more pitches in the zone. “I mean, I think anybody. It doesn’t matter if it’s me or Schwarbs, because if Schwarbs is sitting there the same thing is gonna happen. So I think the four spot is a huge impact. I think the numbers in the four spot weren’t very good last year for our whole team. I think whoever’s in that four spot is gonna have a big job to do, depending on who’s hitting three or who’s hitting two.”
Alec Bohm is the Phillies’ mostly likely cleanup hitter on Opening Day, although Thomson mentioned Adolis García and J.T. Realmuto as candidates.
Interestingly, Harper put up his best numbers with Bohm hitting behind him last year:
- Schwarber (195 PA): .261 BA / .455 SLG / 12.8% walk rate / 41.9% in-zone rate
- Realmuto (176 PA): .259 BA / .500 SLG / 8.5% walk rate / 44.2% in-zone rate
- Bohm (105 PA): .300 BA / .556 SLG / 13.3% walk rate / 42.2% in-zone rate
- Nick Castellanos (62 PA): .246 BA / .509 SLG / 8.1% walk rate / 45.3% in-zone rate
But there is growing evidence that hitters benefit more from the players hitting ahead of them than behind them. Sure enough, Harper saw slightly more pitches in the zone hitting behind Schwarber (43.6 percent) than when Schwarber hit behind him (42.5 percent).
Perhaps that’s because pitchers feel they need to attack with a runner or two already on base.
It’s been the case with Harper since he joined the Phillies:
- Bases empty: .267 BA / .361 OBP / .502 SLG / .863 OPS
- With baserunner(s): .300 BA / .416 OBP / .558 SLG / .975 OPS
Maybe better protection will help Harper this year. Maybe it won’t.
The Phillies have a few weeks to decide.
“What [Thomson’s] trying to write down is going to be the best way for us to go out there and win a baseball game and score runs and keeping constant pressure on people,” Schwarber said. “I bet you there’s going to be that conversation coming soon.”
Schwarber said he’ll hit wherever: “It doesn’t really matter."
In many ways, he is probably right.