PHILADELPHIA -- If life had not been changed last week by the coronavirus pandemic, the Phillies now would be playing their final week of Grapefruit League games in advance of finalizing their 26-man roster.
They had some key decisions to make.
Here is a look at three of the Phillies’ biggest roster battles before Spring Training was suspended and Opening Day was delayed:
The rotation
Ranger Suárez made things more interesting, but he still might not win the No. 5 starter’s job. It would not be a surprise to see either Nick Pivetta or Vince Velasquez get the nod instead.
Suárez had a 2.25 ERA in three Grapefruit League starts: eight innings, 10 hits, two earned runs (three runs total), one walk and eight strikeouts. But he also faced the least accomplished competition. Baseball Reference calculates an Opponents’ Quality Score to help fans gauge the level of competition players have faced in Spring Training games. A hitter who played in the big leagues last season gets assigned a 10. Triple-A players get an eight, Double-A players get a seven, Class A Advanced players get a five, etc. Suárez’s score is 6.4, meaning most of the batters he faced played somewhere between Double-A and Class A Advanced.
Pivetta had an 8.22 ERA in three official starts: 7 2/3 innings, 10 hits, seven runs, four walks and 10 strikeouts. He looked good in a simulated game before camp broke. He had an Opponents’ Quality Score of 8.0. Velasquez had a 4.70 ERA in three appearances: 7 2/3 innings, seven hits, four runs, five walks and six strikeouts. He had an 8.4 Opponents’ Quality Score.
How much attention should you pay to those numbers? A little bit, but they do not tell the whole story. Teams regularly look past the numbers and choose the player they simply feel will be better in the long run (a good spring by that player only reinforces their decision). For example, Velasquez won the No. 5 job over Adam Morgan in 2016. Velasquez had a 3.21 ERA in four Grapefruit League starts at the time, while Morgan had a 1.50 ERA in four starts. The Phillies chose Velasquez because they liked his stuff better.
The bench
Phillies general manager Matt Klentak said on Tuesday that as deadlines for players’ opt-out clauses approach, the team might have to make decisions about its non-roster invitees. Logan Forsythe and Neil Walker can exercise their opt-outs on Thursday, meaning the Phillies will have 48 hours to decide about putting them on the roster. Phil Gosselin and Josh Harrison can exercise their opt-outs on Monday.
These four are competing for the Phillies’ final two bench jobs. Outfielders Kyle Garlick, Nick Martini and Nick Williams could work their way onto the team, too.
If Andrew McCutchen is healthy and ready to play when the season begins, the Phillies’ bench will include Jay Bruce, Roman Quinn or Adam Haseley (depending on who is starting in center field in a particular game) and catcher Andrew Knapp. They are all locks. Bruce and Haseley hit left-handed. Quinn and Knapp are switch-hitters. Of the four non-roster players with opt-outs, Walker is a switch-hitter and Forsythe, Harrison and Gosselin hit right-handed. Forsythe has had the best spring of the four (1.290 OPS in 23 at-bats), followed by Gosselin (.766 OPS in 24 at-bats), Harrison (.762 OPS in 22 at-bats) and Walker (.693 OPS in 28 at-bats). Again, numbers aren’t everything. The Phillies will look at the versatility each player brings to the team, and weigh their simple belief about who can best help by coming up with a big hit late in the game.
The bullpen
Klentak said he had no update on injured right-hander Seranthony Domínguez, who last week suffered a setback in his recovery from an injured ulnar collateral ligament in his right elbow. His uncertain status leaves the bullpen with three or four locks: Héctor Neris, José Álvarez and Adam Morgan are no-doubters. Non-roster invitee Francisco Liriano is a strong bet. He can exercise his opt-out on Thursday. The runners-up for the No. 5 starter job are expected to shift into the bullpen, leaving two job openings.
Right-handers Anthony Swarzak and Blake Parker can exercise opt-outs on Thursday. Right-handers Drew Storen and Bud Norris can opt out of their deals -- but only if they land another big league job -- in the summer, which probably works against them.
A delayed Opening Day might ensure that right-handers Víctor Arano and Tommy Hunter are healthy, and they could then make the roster. The Phillies thought Arano had a chance to be ready for the March 26 opener. They also believed Hunter would be ready by mid-April. If they can return, then Swarzak, Parker, Norris and Storen might not make it.