HOUSTON -- The Phillies stumbled their way to the halfway point of the season on Thursday with a 2-1 loss to the Astros that capped off a three-game sweep at Daikin Park.
Despite the sweep -- one in which Philadelphia allowed only five runs -- the Phils (47-34) still found themselves tied atop the NL East through 81 games (the Mets, who are tied with the Phillies, play game No. 82 on Thursday night).
"I don't think we've played our best baseball," shortstop Trea Turner said. "Definitely need to get better. ... When you get to that halfway point, it's time to get going."
It's been an up-and-down first few months, so let's take a deeper dive into what's gone right over the first 81 games -- and what needs to happen over the final 81.
The offense
As a team, the Phillies are on pace for just 166 homers, which would be their lowest full-season total since 2016.
“I think we definitely have more [power] in there,” Turner said. “And I think we’d all tell you that, too.”
To that point, J.T. Realmuto is on pace for just 11 home runs, which would be his fewest in any full season since 2016 with Miami. Nick Castellanos is on pace for 16 -- 10 fewer than the 26 he's averaged over the past two seasons. Turner is on pace to fall shy of the 20-homer mark for the first time since 2019.
Even Bryce Harper, when healthy, is on pace for his lowest home run rate since 2014.
"It'll come," manager Rob Thomson said recently. "There's more power in this lineup than what we're showing right now."
Without their usual power, the Phillies have struggled to find any offensive consistency.
On one hand, they’ve scored at least seven runs 27 times this year -- only the Cubs and Dodgers have done so more frequently. On the other, they’ve been shut out six times, already surpassing their total from all of last season.
It took until the eighth inning of the series finale just to plate a run against the Astros -- and it came on a Brandon Marsh sacrifice fly. The Phillies became just the 10th team in the Modern Era (since 1901) to be swept despite allowing five runs or fewer in a series.
The Phillies could pursue an offensive upgrade at the July 31 Trade Deadline -- but they could also look within. Though he wouldn’t provide much power, No. 3 Phillies prospect Justin Crawford entered Thursday hitting .336 with a .413 on-base percentage and 26 stolen bases in 61 games with Triple-A Lehigh Valley.
"Playing great, swinging the bat," Thomson said. "He's been good."
Good enough to be in consideration for the Phils?
"Oh yeah," Thomson said. "Absolutely."
The rotation
The Phillies’ starting staff has unquestionably carried the load to this point. It ranks first in the Majors in strikeouts (494), first in innings (460 1/3) and tied for third in ERA (3.36). That last number is inflated significantly by two outings, droping to 3.01 if you remove Jesús Luzardo’s historically bad two-start stretch that appears to have been an anomaly, whether caused by pitch-tipping or otherwise.
That 3.01 ERA would be the best in the Majors.
With Zack Wheeler (2.55 ERA), Ranger Suárez (2.08) and Thursday's starter Cristopher Sánchez (2.79), the Phillies are one of two teams -- along with Texas -- to have three pitchers with a sub-2.90 ERA over 10-plus starts. (And again, Luzardo has a 2.23 ERA in 14 starts outside of the two in which he allowed 20 of his 41 earned runs.)
"Our starting pitching has been phenomenal,” Thomson said. “Probably even better than what I had expected.”
Toss in 23-year-old Mick Abel and top pitching prospect Andrew Painter, and this is arguably the deepest rotation in the Majors -- even before Aaron Nola’s eventual return.
Which brings us to …
The bullpen
The Phillies’ bullpen ranks 25th in the Majors with a 4.63 ERA. It will unquestionably be the team’s focal point ahead of the Trade Deadline … but the need may not be as dire as it seems.
Considering the aforementioned rotation depth, the Phillies figure to have some extra arms available come October. Based on the postseason schedule, they would need only three starters in the NLDS and four apiece in the NLCS and World Series. That’s three or four starters from a seven-pitcher group that includes Wheeler, Suárez, Sánchez, Luzardo, Abel, a hopefully healthy Nola and potentially Painter.
To be clear, the Phillies still plan to aggressively pursue at least one bullpen piece before the end of next month, but plug a couple of those internal arms into the ‘pen, and suddenly, things look a bit different.
They have the next 81 games to figure it all out.