5 areas for Phillies to address this offseason

October 26th, 2023

This story was excerpted from Todd Zolecki's Phillies Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

PHILADELPHIA -- If you’re still wondering what happened to the Phillies in the NL Championship Series, you’re not alone.

“I think for me personally I wish I could’ve done more,” Bryce Harper said Tuesday night after the Phillies lost Game 7 to Arizona, 4-2, at Citizens Bank Park. “I wish I could’ve just gone out there and had that hit in that moment. But at the same time, we’ll be back. We’ll be back in this situation again. From the bottom of my heart, I want to thank the fans for giving us their all this whole postseason. This whole season as well. They showed out and showed up for us. I know they’re going to continue to do that. I know they’re hurting right now as much as we are because when we lose, they lose, and when we win, they win. I know they’re hurting. We are too in here. But again, we’ll be back.”

Tuesday’s season-ending defeat felt different than Philadelphia's loss to Houston in Game 6 of the 2022 World Series. Nobody expected those Phillies to make the World Series, but everybody expected this team to win it, especially after it cruised to victories against the Marlins and Braves in the first two rounds of the postseason. A second consecutive NL championship seemed like the safest bet in the world after Game 2.

But then the offense sputtered, and the bullpen stumbled in Games 3 and 4.

The stunning setback has everybody asking questions. Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski, general manager Sam Fuld and manager Rob Thomson will address them Thursday afternoon in a press conference.

In the meantime, here are few we thought you might have:

1. Does Aaron Nola return? If not, who replaces him?
It might be the $200 million-plus question. Nola, 30, is going to be a hot commodity on the free-agent market because high-quality starting pitching is difficult to find -- and Nola is high quality. He has pitched 1,065 1/3 innings from 2018-23, second most in baseball to Gerrit Cole. Nola’s 26.0 WAR in those six seasons is fifth, according to Baseball Reference. Only Max Scherzer (29.8), Cole (29.7), Zack Wheeler (26.4) and Jacob deGrom (26.1) are better. Nola ranks fifth in FanGraphs’ WAR, too.

Nola had an up and down 2023, but he provides tremendous value to a pitching staff because he takes the ball every five days and pitches deep into games.

If the Phillies cannot match Nola’s best offer from another team, they must find a suitable replacement if they want to have another shot to win the World Series. Free-agent options include Blake Snell, Marcus Stroman (who has a $21 million player option with the Cubs), Sonny Gray, Jordan Montgomery and Lucas Giolito. If they don’t like those options, they could try to make a trade. If Milwaukee thinks it cannot sign Corbin Burnes to a long-term deal, perhaps it looks to deal him. Dylan Cease from the White Sox is another potential trade candidate.

But are any of them as good and as durable as Nola?

2. What position does Harper play next year?
It will depend upon a few things. Harper learned to play first base in just weeks this year, and he played well, at +3 Outs Above Average according to Statcast. If Harper stays at first, it gives the Phillies flexibility at DH and the outfield with Kyle Schwarber, Nick Castellanos, Brandon Marsh, Johan Rojas and Cristian Pache. If Harper returns to right, it opens the door for Rhys Hoskins’ return, but it also complicates matters in the outfield.

The Phillies are best defensively with Schwarber at DH, Rojas in center field and Marsh/Pache in left field. If Harper plays right, they could move Castellanos to left and play some combination of Marsh/Pache/Rojas in center, if they wanted. But Philadelphia saw the benefits of an improved defense late in the year. Would it want to go back to a lesser defense?

“Of course, with Rhys possibly coming back … I expect him to go back to first base and me go to the outfield and play out there in some capacity,” Harper said before Game 1 of the NLCS. “But I don't mind giving them the option, even if he does come back, if Rhys needs a day off, or giving them the option to put me at first base and them knowing, 'Hey, we can put him there at any point, and he'll be fine.'”

3. Should the Phillies try to sign Wheeler to a contract extension?
Wheeler has been one of baseball’s best pitchers since he joined the Phillies in 2020, becoming one of the best postseason pitchers of his generation. He will enter the final year of a five-year, $118 million contract in 2024. He will turn 34 on May 30, but there are no signs of him slowing down.

Wheeler’s status beyond 2024 is not a pressing matter, but it might become one if Nola signs elsewhere.

4. Does Thomson need to repair his relationship with Taijuan Walker?
Walker went 15-6 with a 4.38 ERA in 31 starts. He made the postseason roster every round, but he never came close to pitching.

Philadelphia considered him a “bulk” pitcher, meaning he would pitch only if the Phillies found themselves in an extra-innings game. It was somewhat surprising because Walker pitched well in the regular season after signing a four-year, $72 million contract on Dec. 16.

Walker was frustrated about his role in October. After Game 7, he posted on X: “Disrespect is at an all time high. #next year”.

Walker declined comment through a team spokesperson, but Thomson and Walker will need to clear the air before Spring Training opens in February.

5. Do the Phillies need to change the mix?
After Philadelphia won the 2008 World Series, it replaced Pat Burrell with Raul Ibañez in left field. Recently retired general manager Pat Gillick said at the time that he believed in the value of shaking up a roster following success to inject new life into the clubhouse and prevent complacency.

The Phillies fell five wins short of a World Series championship this year, so it's in a different spot than the ’08 team. But does the front office look at the roster and say, “Let’s run it back with the same group?” Or does it do something more significant to give the club a different look? We should learn that answer Thursday.